The Iowa State Cyclones are very rarely if ever involved in the chase for a Big 12 Conference championship. They had a few moments a decade ago when they had an outside chance at winning the Big 12 North Division and advancing to the Big 12 Championship Game, but couldn’t quite break through. The best the Cyclones can reasonably hope for is a bowl bid and a solid record approaching eight wins, with a finish in the middle of the Big 12. That set of goals might not be attainable yet, but there is a quiet kind of optimism in Ames that second-year coach Matt Campbell has the program on the right track.
How Did They End 2016
The Cyclones finished 2016 better than they started it. Iowa State grabbed a sole win over San Jose State in its first two months of the season, but in November, ISU began to figure things out on offense. It beat Kansas, 31-24, and then played its masterpiece of the season, a 66-10 curb-stomping of Texas Tech. That performance gave the team hope that it could round into form this year, powered by a more consistent offense in a Big 12 Conference dominated by high-scoring games. Iowa State lost a 45-42 game to Baylor in 2016, but for the most part, its offense was not able to maintain a high level of performance over 60 minutes against Big 12 opponents. The offense might have played a solid half, but it couldn’t deliver two strong halves in almost every game last season.
Offseason Changes
Most of the defensive line is gone, creating the need for new bodies to provide quality and depth up front. Iowa State doesn’t need its defense to dominate. In plain point of fact, no Big 12 team needs a dominant defense, since high-scoring games are such a constant. Teams which give up 27 points a game in conference play are likely to win a majority of the nine conference games played, and teams which allow 24 per game will probably win at least seven if not eight, provided that the per-game averages don’t include extreme examples (allowing only three points in one game but 50 in another – the 50-point game would obviously figure to be a loss). If Iowa State can merely be decent on the defensive line, it can make a bowl (winning six of 12 games).
Team X-Factor
The offensive line must replace three lost starters. Redshirt freshmen such as Sean Foster have to answer the call. This is where Iowa State’s offense faces significant challenges in terms of being able to win shootouts in the Big 12. The skill people are there, but can the blockers make the larger machine work?
What To Expect From The Cyclones This Year
The Big 12 is not an overwhelmingly strong conference, but there are few really bad teams in the league, and last year, Iowa State was one of two of them, Kansas being the other. Iowa State could improve this year and yet not move up the standings. The Big 12 is that balanced.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 3-9
2015: 3-9
2014: 2-10
2013: 3-9
2012: 6-7
Schedule & Outlook
The Cyclones will start the season with a couple of rivalry games. They shouldn’t have many problems hosting Northern Iowa in Week 1 but they’ll probably lose a grind of a game to Iowa in Week 2. Their only other non-conference game is at Akron, which is manageable. If you’re betting on this team’s regular season win total, it’s worth noting that they only have four home games in Big 12 play (compared to five road games). That’s important to note as anything on the road will be a challenge for this team.
Iowa State should be able to beat Kansas again, but where will a second Big 12 win come from? TCU could offer an upset candidate, but the pickings are slim. Iowa State might win one or two more games than last year, but that will not be enough to go 6-6 and reach a bowl game. While the regular season win total that’s right around that number, go under as this team just doesn’t look good enough to be .500 right now.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Under 5.5
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