If you ask around and try to identify one of the hotter names in college football coaching, Mike Norvell of Memphis will come up in a lot of responses and conversations. Norvell was an assistant to Todd Graham at Arizona State, and when he took the job at Memphis, it seemed like a downgrade for the Memphis Tigers. Memphis had been led by Justin Fuente, who quickly ascended to Virginia Tech and could become one of the best coaches of the next 15 years. Norvell did not seem to be on that track, but after one season at Memphis, he opened a lot of eyes and suggested that he, too, could create a great career. Norvell has recruited at an extremely high level and is offering indications that he could push Memphis to the top of the AAC this season.
How Did They End 2016
The Memphis Tigers did lose to Western Kentucky in their bowl game, but that game was not the one they cared about more than any other. The Tigers badly wanted to beat Houston and Tom Herman. The Cougars had trailed by multiple touchdowns against the Tigers in 2015 but came back to win late. Memphis wanted revenge for that game, which denied the Tigers an AAC West Division championship. The 2016 Tigers engaged Houston in a shootout in the 12th and final game of the regular season. Houston made another comeback against Memphis, but the Tigers were able to respond and show the level of resilience they couldn’t come up with a year earlier. Memphis went 8-4 in the regular season, which was better than many observers felt the Tigers would be in 2016.
Offseason Changes
This is one of the big questions Memphis and Norvell must answer. The lead offensive coordinator for the team last season, Chip Long, went to Notre Dame. Long was very creative and thoughtful in getting Memphis’ offense to perform and show great continuity from the end of the Fuente years. A lot of people expected Memphis to dramatically decline this past season, but that was not the case. People will wonder if Norvell was the brains behind Memphis’ strong offensive performance last year, or if Long was the true mastermind of the operation. Darrell Dickey will be the full-time offensive coordinator, and while he has a responsibility to the program, eyes will shift to Norvell in terms of being able to oversee the larger process at Memphis.
Team X-Factor
Sophomore cornerback Austin Hall is both a returning player, but still an underclassman. He returns from the 2016 team which lost five of its seven corners. The immense amount of turnover in the Memphis secondary is a huge concern, given that the AAC has a lot of high-powered offenses and plays a lot of high-scoring games. Hall needs to be a cohesive presence on a defense which needs players to step up.
What To Expect From The Tigers This Year
The Tigers have to go to Houston, but they get Navy at home. The AAC West should continue to be a very tough division, but the Tigers might be getting their opponents at the right time. Houston might be the ultimate example, since it is expected that the Cougars will slide in the first year after Tom Herman’s departure to the University of Texas. Memphis won’t be worse than last season. The questions is how much better this team can be.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 8-5
2015: 9-4
2014: 10-3
2013: 3-9
2012: 4-8
Schedule & Outlook
The Tigers have a relatively easy start to the season – outside of a showdown with UCLA. The Tigers will start with UL Monroe and then go to Central Florida in Week 2. After getting a visit from UCLA, they’ll host Southern Illinois and visit Georgia State. There’s a good chance this team is 4-1 after five games.
The Memphis Tigers have too many offensive weapons to fall from the standard they set a year ago, but their weaknesses on defense will prevent them from producing a dominant season. Memphis will probably finish a 12-game schedule at 9-3. Whether that leads to a division championship depends on how the rest of the AAC West does.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 8.5
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