The Mississippi State Bulldogs followed a very unusual path last season, but from their journey came a number of unexpectedly happy developments. The biggest one is at quarterback, and head coach Dan Mullen, who helped Dak Prescott become the player he is today in the NFL, is confident that he has the best possible leader for his new offense.
How Did They End 2016
The Bulldogs were 4-7 through 11 games, having taken their lumps in a merciless and difficult SEC West. The Bulldogs showed flashes of greatness at times, but they were exactly that – flashes, not anything sustained. Because of an early-season loss to South Alabama, and then a midseason loss to Kentucky – two games the Bulldogs should have won – Mississippi State appeared to be out of contention for a bowl berth. However, MSU then crushed Ole Miss in game number 12. Several 5-6 teams with a chance to win their sixth game and clinch bowl eligibility faltered, staying locked on five wins. With the very large number of bowl games (over 40 last year), there were not enough 6-6 teams available, so the final few bowl spots were awarded to 5-7 teams. That process involves awarding bowl bids to 5-7 teams based on APR scores, an academic test measurement. Mississippi State scored relatively high in the APR and got a bid to the St. Petersburg Bowl against Miami University of Ohio, from the Mid-American Conference. Mississippi State didn’t play particularly well, but it blocked a game-winning Miami field goal in the final moments of the fourth quarter to claim a bowl victory. This team hopes it can get a bowl bid by going through the front door this year, not by backing in at 5-7.
Offseason Changes
Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham comes from Louisville, where he is replaced by Mississippi State’s former defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon. A one-for-one exchange is rare – not in terms of coaches, but coaches who occupy the exact same position. Mississippi State’s defense was not up to the job against Kentucky or in a few other games which unraveled for the Bulldogs. Grantham has SEC experience, having been the defensive coordinator at Georgia for several years.
Team X-Factor
The defensive line stands out as the specific unit on the team which has to be solid (if not better) for the Bulldogs to reach some higher goals. Quarterbacks will become such a central point of the SEC story in 2017 that any defense without a good pass rush will lose a lot of leverage. Moreover, the quarterbacks in Mississippi State’s non-conference games, such as Louisiana Tech, are unproven. Being able to rattle them will pay huge dividends for MSU.
What To Expect From The Bulldogs This Year
The Bulldogs should be moderately better than they were a year ago. The key point to make about Mississippi State in 2016 is that it was searching for the successor to Dak Prescott at the start of the season. At the end of the season, Nick Fitzgerald became that man. Mississippi State is in very good shape at quarterback. As long as Fitzgerald is healthy, this should be an improved team.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 6-7
2015: 9-4
2014: 10-3
2013: 7-6
2012: 8-5
Schedule and Outlook
Mississippi State gets a tricky September schedule. They’ll beat Charleston Southern at home in their opener and they should win at Louisiana Tech in Week 2, but the challenge ramps up from there. The next three games will tell the tale of their season. They’ll host LSU in Week 3, then they’ll go to Georgia and then they’ll go to Auburn. The two road games seem like they’ll be losses and LSU at home won’t be easy either. For this team to go bowling, they’ll have to find a way to be 3-2 after their first five games. If not, expect them to have a sub-.500 record at the end of the season.
If the Bulldogs handle Louisiana Tech and Kentucky, they will turn 5-7 into 7-5… and that seems like a good bet. The non-conference schedule is soft enough to give this team four wins. Going 3-5 in the SEC would be enough for seven wins overall.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 5.5
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