The Navy Midshipmen were in many ways the most impressive team in the AAC last season, but injuries got in the way of their dreams. Evaluating Navy this season depends on an ability to see past the injuries and expect a given level of performance from this high-achieving program.
How Did They End 2016
Navy had exceeded all expectations. The Midshipmen were stepping into the first season after the legendary career of quarterback Keenan Reynolds. The fact that Reynolds was such a prolific scorer and respected leader made it easy to predict that Navy would suffer in 2016. Then things became even worse. In the season opener, Tago Smith – a senior who had been waiting for his big chance – got injured and was knocked out for the season. The team had to call upon Will Worth to fill in. Navy seemed to be in big trouble, but then the team began to do far better than anyone could have anticipated under the circumstances.
Worth ably led the offense, and though he struggled early, Navy’s defense was good enough to win close games against UConn and Tulane. Then Worth found his footing in a huge performance against Houston. Navy became a lethal home-field offensive team, outscoring Memphis, Tulsa and Houston in shootouts in Annapolis. Navy lost at South Florida, as expected, but when it beat Tulsa in a 42-40 decision, it gained control of the AAC West. Navy was able to win its first division title and play for its first AAC championship at home against Temple. The season was a total success.
Then came the heartbreak. Worth and other Navy starters on offense were injured in that AAC title game against Temple. The game was so physically damaging to Navy that it was depleted the week after for the game against Army. Zach Abey had to step in for Worth at quarterback, and Navy’s offense wasn’t able to do enough. This team was terrific last season, but injuries cast a shadow over the final two games.
Offseason Changes
Will Worth is not able to play for the team this year, which means Zach Abey is the man under center. The fact that Abey was able to play in the Army-Navy Game and then in the bowl game will give him valuable experience and make this a less painful transition for Navy in 2017.
Team X-Factor
Navy’s defense gave too much ground and allowed too many points last year. The Midshipmen couldn’t reliably get stops on a general basis, and they were poor in third down and six situations. If that is going to change in a good way this year, players such as senior Tyris Wooten will rise up. Wooten is a cornerback who has to be able to play on an island and break up third-down passes. If Navy can get that kind of performance from its secondary, it will be able to live up to its promise and possibility in 2017.
What To Expect From The Midshipmen This Year
Navy always seems to overachieve. The Midshipmen’s injuries last season had the effect of giving backups meaningful playing time, which should enable the 2017 offense to perform very well. The defense is still a huge concern, though, and Navy must play Memphis, Houston and Tulsa on the road. If Navy can win two of those three games, it will have done really well. In all likelihood, though, Navy will win only one of those games.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 9-5
2015: 11-2
2014: 8-5
2013: 9-4
2012: 8-5
Outlook
The Midshipmen will go 8-4, but they will beat Army – injuries were the only thing keeping Navy from beating the Black Knights last year. That’s good enough to topple their regular season win total, which is set at 7.5. There is a good opportunity for this team to get off to a good start with two of their first three games at home, and the lone road trip is to Florida Atlantic. They do have some tough road games – at Notre Dame and at Houston in back-to-back weeks in November – but if they take care of business at home, they’ll get to at least eight wins this coming season.
Prediction: Over 7.5 Wins
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