This is it. This is the season in which North Carolina State Wolfpack will either be very successful, or it will be clear that head coach Dave Doeren is not the man to lead this program into 2018 and beyond. This is a classic do-or-die season. A coach has a veteran roster, a bunch of players he has patiently worked with to bring to the next level. The 2016 season was reasonably viewed as a journey of growing pains and lessons learned. Doeren’s job was in danger, but he was retained, with the reasonable belief that he deserved a chance to see things through with this roster. Coach and players are both being given an opportunity to make the most of their relationship and their resources. It will be a dramatic season in Raleigh, one way or another.
How Did They End 2016
The Wolfpack were 5-6, but they went to Chapel Hill and beat North Carolina to gain a rivalry victory and a .500 season with the promise of a bowl game. The team showed the same potential it had occasionally displayed earlier in the fall. North Carolina State had Clemson on the ropes at Clemson. The Wolfpack just had to hit a 33-yard field goal to win, but the kick was missed. The Wolfpack have, over the past several years, lost that kind of game, and the result has so often ruined North Carolina State’s season. The win over North Carolina saved the season, and then a strong win over Vanderbilt in the Independence Bowl cemented that revival, giving the Wolfpack a lot of momentum heading into the offseason.
Offseason Changes
Gone is 1,000-yard rusher Matt Dayes and three of the four starters in the secondary. The retention of the roster is substantial, but these were the few losses which Doeren will have to account for. Finding one running back or a committee to compensate for Dayes should not be too much of a problem. Losing three starters in the secondary is a much more urgent concern, given that North Carolina State plays in an ACC Atlantic Division which has so many good quarterbacks, especially Lamar Jackson of Louisville and Deondre Francois of Florida State.
Team X-Factor
Underclassmen Freddie Phillips and Nick McCloud in the secondary have to grow up quickly. There are too many potent passing attacks in the Wolfpack’s division for there to be many lapses in the secondary. Occasional mistakes will happen, but they can’t become commonplace. If they do, this team will walk away with more than three losses, and this season of promise won’t amount to much.
What To Expect From The Wolfpack This Year
It is easy to see why people are high on the Wolfpack. In truth, the team should improve, but not from 6-6 to 9-3. A smaller rate of improvement is a better verdict. Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson are all still better. The Wolfpack might beat one, but they won’t beat two. The margin of error for this team is still very small.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 7-6
2015: 7-6
2014: 8-5
2013: 3-9
2012: 7-6
Schedule & Outlook
Are the Wolfpack for real? We’re going to find out very quickly. They want the hype of a team that can win nine or 10 games, but are they actually good enough to do that? We’ll find out in Week 1 when they play South Carolina at a neutral site. If they can win that game, then look out as they could be 3-0 heading into their visit to Tallahassee against Florida State, and the hype will be there. Some media pundits will even call for the upset. That’s not likely but even if they can put up a fight, that will signify progress and that’s what the brass wants to see from Doeren’s team.
The Wolfpack will go 7-5, which will probably get Doeren fired. The Wolfpack want to be a nine- or 10-win team, but the ACC Atlantic is simply too rough a division. At the end of the day, there’s too many good teams on the schedule with FSU, Louisville, Notre Dame, Clemson, and North Carolina to really see eight to 10 wins.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Under 7.5
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