The South Alabama Jaguars were a crazy team last year. Can the Jaguars stabilize in certain parts of their roster this season? That and other questions loom as the Jaguars try to return to a bowl game and sustain momentum for their program, which – at its best – looked extremely good last year. The problem: When the program suffered, it looked absolutely awful.
How Did They End 2016
Few teams were harder to predict or figure out in 2016 than South Alabama. The South Alabama Jaguars barely beat an FCS team (Nicholls State), but they also defeated Mississippi State of the SEC on the road. They won only two games in the Sun Belt all season, going 2-6 in the conference, but they handily defeated Mountain West Conference champion San Diego State by 18 points. They took a big lead over Air Force early in the Arizona Bowl, but then allowed 42 straight points to the Falcons and lost that game. This team never had an identity, for better or worse. Its victories did not fit into one category or style – some wins were shootouts, others defensive struggles. The reality of this team kept changing week to week. The Jaguars were 4-5 heading into their final three games. They managed to go 2-1 in those three games to reach 6-6 and barely sneak into the bowl pool.
Offseason Changes
Miami transfer Tyler Grimsley comes in to help an offensive line which not only is replacing starters from last year’s team, but has endured three offseason injuries to separate linemen. A lot of attrition is already building up on the roster, so Grimsley’s arrival is an important change in the lineup.
Team X-Factor
Jimmie Gipson and Tre Alford are on the other side of the coin for this team. Whereas the offensive line has suffered injuries leading into this 2017 season, Gipson and Alford are players who were injured during the 2016 season, which explains why South Alabama was so up and down. If Gipson and Alford play all 12 games (or at least 10) for this defense, South Alabama could improve in ways which will offset the offensive line injuries or other points of weakness. This could be a hidden source of value for the Jaguars and anyone who wants to bet on them in 2017.
What To Expect From The Jaguars This Year
Injuries from 2016 and injuries in the 2017 offseason both cloud the picture for the South Alabama Jaguars. However, USA (the team’s school acronym – University of South Alabama) won at Mississippi State last year and beat San Diego State. Those wins catapulted the team into a bowl. This year, a game against Ole Miss could become a win, but it will still be hard even though the Rebels are miserable after suffering NCAA sanctions. USA also plays Oklahoma State, a game it will simply not win. The schedule is tougher, and that suggests the team will decline relative to 2016.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 6-7
2015: 5-7
2014: 6-7
2013: 6-6
2012: 2-11
Schedule and Outlook
The South Alabama Jaguars shocked a lot of people when they went to Mississippi State in Week 1 last year and earned the win. They face another vulnerable Mississippi side – Ole Miss – in Week 1 this year. They are currently a 24-point underdog. They’ll be a similarly-sized underdog in Week 2 as they’ll come home to face Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are expected to be one of the top teams in the Big 12, so it’s very likely that the Jaguars start 0-2. After that, they’ll play back-to-back home games against Alabama A&M and Idaho. From there, though, five of this team’s final eight games are on the road. That includes road games at Louisiana Tech, Troy, Georgia State, Georgia Southern and New Mexico State.
South Alabama was inconsistent last year, and this year the team has few options at receiver and offensive line. There are too many weaknesses to expect a bowl game, but five wins are probably still attainable. This team probably won’t win fewer Sun Belt games (two) than it did last year. We have a total set at four, which is a low bar for this team. They should at least push and possibly go over.
Regular Season Win Prediction: Over 4
Click here to bet on the college football futures for the 2017 college football season right now. DSI will have all of the latest lines, spreads and props for this year’s action!
