The Texas A&M Aggies have been stuck in a very familiar cycle. They win eight games, they lose four or five, and nothing ever improves from year to year. That’s what life has been like for the program since the sensational 2012 season which created Johnny Manziel, the first freshman Heisman Trophy winner in the award’s history, dating back to 1935. A&M seemed to be headed on the fast track to greatness five years ago, but then the program stalled and has not been able to get unstuck. Will this season bring anything different? It needs to if head coach Kevin Sumlin is going to keep his job.
How Did They End 2016
The Aggies blew a lead at home to Ole Miss, and then allowed 54 points at home to LSU. They could not have finished their season any worse, and they continued a longstanding pattern of starting the season strongly but then fading in late October and throughout November. The schedule for an A&M team this decade is typically soft in September and then very hard in the back end. A&M regularly can’t handle the harder portions of its schedule, which is why fans are always so upset when a season of promise turns into dust. This reality remained in evidence in 2016, and it’s up to Sumlin to shrug it off and find a better path in 2017.
Offseason Changes
Myles Garrett, an elite pass rusher who made A&M’s defense a point of national discussion, became the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. This leaves the Aggies in need of major reinforcements, since even with Garrett, they often got torn to shreds last season. Defensive coordinator John Chavis has turned in a solid career, but he lacked answers in the latter half of the 2016 season, and he has to show he can make adjustments to the loss of Garrett.
Team X-Factor
Jake Hubenak will shoulder the load at quarterback for this team. He replaces Trevor Knight, a dual-threat quarterback who defeated Alabama in the Sugar Bowl a few years ago as a member of the Oklahoma Sooners. Hubenak gets his one bite at the apple this season, because Kellen Mond – a freshman – is viewed as the quarterback of the future at A&M. It is up to Hubenak to translate his veteran leadership and experience into good results. He is not a flashy quarterback, but that’s not necessarily what A&M needs. Efficient play and timely throws could be more than enough to improve the program this season.
What To Expect From The Aggies This Year
The ceiling of talent – and therefore of expectations – is not very high when measured against the teams A&M plays in the SEC West. With Garrett and Knight gone, it is hard to ask this team to be better than it was. Purely based on resources, a repeat of last season would not be that bad a result. However, fans are tired of the same old story, and Sumlin did not get hired to win only eight games.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 11-2
2015: 11-2
2014: 8-5
2013: 11-2
2012: 10-3
Schedule and Outlook
The Aggies have a bit of a bizarre schedule as they start with a visit to UCLA and then five consecutive home games. They’ll host Nicholls and Louisiana in their second and third games, which should result in wins, but then things ramp up from there. They’ll play a neutral-site game against Arkansas, although the game is in Arlington, so the Aggies should still have a home-field advantage. Then they’ll host South Carolina and Alabama in back-to-back weeks. On the season, they only have four true road games.
A&M has to win its first game at UCLA to have any real chance of winning at least nine games during the regular season. The one good part of the schedule is that the toughest games will be at home, against Auburn and Alabama. Nevertheless, it will be very difficult to beat either of those teams. Texas A&M simply doesn’t have as much high-end talent as it did in previous years. This feels like Sumlin’s last season, though eight wins might still give him a shot at coaching into 2018.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 7
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