Texas Tech, nine years ago, finished 11-1 in the regular season and came very close to making an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game. The past several seasons have witnessed a steady decline of the program, to the point that merely making a bowl game would be a reasonably successful 2017 season under the circumstances. The challenges the Texas Tech Red Raiders faces and the positive attributes the Red Raiders possess are all very familiar. Everyone in Lubbock knows what needs to change… and also what needs to stay the same.
How Did They End 2016
It is bad enough to lose a game by a score of 66-10 against anyone, but Texas Tech lost by that score to Iowa State, a team which narrowly avoided finishing in the basement of the Big 12 Conference in 2016. Getting destroyed by a bad team reflected the extent to which the Red Raiders fell off the map. Texas Tech’s season was marked by a number of very disappointing facts, one of them being that the 66-10 loss to Iowa State was not the only time the Red Raiders allowed 66 points in a game that season. They also did against Oklahoma. Texas Tech also allowed more than 66 points in a loss to Arizona State, 68-55. It was simply too much of the same thing for Tech. More will be said on this in the sections below:
Offseason Changes
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went to the NFL, taken in the first half of the first round by the Kansas City Chiefs, a team which obviously saw a lot of upside and potential. Mahomes is gone, but Nic Shimonek is in, and since Shimonek played at times last season when Mahomes was injured, head coach Kliff Kingsbury knows he can depend on Shimonek to keep the Texas Tech spread passing attack rolling. The Red Raiders should once again score very large quantities of points and uphold Kingsbury’s reputation as one of the best and most fertile offensive minds in all of college football. Changes at quarterback are often very big deals for college programs, but Texas Tech just keeps cranking out prolific passers with no worries or disruptions.
Team X-Factor
The whole defense, but mostly the defensive line is the key with this team. Texas Tech gives up huge totals of points so often, as documented above, that the Red Raiders don’t need to have a dominant defense to win a lot of games. They just need a moderately functional defense to thrive, and yet they can’t even attain that very modest goal. Allowing under 40 points a game allowed in Big 12 contests would give Texas Tech a great chance of winning a majority of its non-conference games and getting to eight wins for the full regular season. It’s up to the defensive line to show some pride and play like it.
What To Expect From The Red Raiders This Year
Until the defense shows signs it can be close to average instead of absolutely toothless, Texas Tech will continue to struggle.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 5-7
2015: 7-6
2014: 4-8
2013: 8-5
2012: 8-5
Schedule & Outlook
The Red Raiders don’t get many cupcakes on this schedule, which is going to be a problem. They should beat Eastern Washington at home in Week 1 but from there, they start to get tested. They’ll host Arizona State in Week 2 and then go to Houston in Week 3. Those teams aren’t necessarily the best in their respective conferences but the matchups will test Texas Tech. From there, it’s a deep dive into the Big 12.
What’s even more challenging for them is that while they’ll host Oklahoma State, they’ll have to go to Texas, Oklahoma and West Virginia. Texas Tech would have a tough time with those teams as is but going on the road in those three contests almost assures losses. It’s hard to travel with this type of defense and win.
The Big 12 is not the strongest conference in America, but it punishes terrible defenses, and few teams have a worse defense than Texas Tech. It’s hard to place faith in the Red Raiders at this point.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Under 5.5
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