The magic of Tulane head coach Willie Fritz is that wherever he has worked in his career (spanning multiple places of employment), he has consistently fixed programs in two seasons. This is his second season at Tulane, so some will think that he can engineer a turnaround. However, Fritz is swimming against the tide. This season, more than any other, will challenge his ability to author an effective two-year plan. If Fritz can pull off the success story, his career could take off.
How Did They End 2016
The final game of 2016 for Tulane was a 38-13 victory over Connecticut, but that win merely prevented the Green Wave from going winless in the conference. Tulane was one of four AAC teams last season to win only one conference game. Cincinnati, East Carolina, and Connecticut were the others. Tulane gave up 50 points to Tulsa in one loss, but it also lost games 31-0 and 37-6. Some days, the offense was terrible, and other days the defense couldn’t do much of anything. This team was weak across the board, which is precisely why significant improvements won’t come easily for Fritz and his staff. The Green Wave have too many issues in front of them for anyone to say that the program can dramatically change if just one tweak or one position make a big impact.
Offseason Changes
With Tanner Lee out at quarterback, now at Nebraska as a transfer, there will be a crowded field locked in competition to replace him. Tulane is in the midst of an identity crisis at quarterback, and so while this is indeed a program which can’t rely upon one change to solve everything, the quarterback position (and whoever emerges from the battle for the starting spot) certainly stands at the forefront of this program’s needs. There is no getting around that basic point.
Team X-Factor
Miami transfer offensive lineman Hunter Knightson is being counted on to provide a brick wall of protection this season. If Tulane needs its quarterback to be comfortable and confident, Knightson will take on a role of primary responsibility for making sure that happens. Tulane’s offense has to be more self sufficient in an AAC which featured a lot of shootouts last season. Getting dependable play from the offensive line and players such as Knightson offers a very good start.
What To Expect From The Green Wave This Year
Tulane has been a beaten-down and lowly program for some time. The Green Wave rarely taste success, and on the few occasions they do, it doesn’t last very long. The AAC West is a very tough division. If Tulane is going to grab a win against any other team in the division, it will need its best effort and some luck. Optimism just doesn’t seem realistic entering this 2017 season.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 4-8
2015: 3-9
2014: 3-9
2013: 7-6
2012: 2-10
Schedule & Outlook
It’s interesting handicapping this regular season win total because it currently sits at five. Tulane has only topped the five-win mark – aka won six or more games – once in the last 13 years. History suggests that betting the over is not the right decision in this spot. Getting to .500 is a frequent challenge for this program.
They should get a win right off the bat with a home contest against Grambling to start the season but they’ll very likely lose the next two weeks at Navy and at Oklahoma. Beyond that, they’ll still have road trips to Memphis and East Carolina, and get home tests from South Florida, Cincinnati and Houston. When you start doing the math, it becomes tricky to see six wins on their schedule. It could very well happen but it feels like a stretch and it feels like more could go wrong than right. There are better bets on the board.
The Green Wave would do well if they went 2-6 in the AAC and reached 5-7 overall. They will probably fall one win short of each goal – the AAC is simply too tough and deep right now.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Under 5
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