For a lot of teams, a 6-7 season would be viewed as a disappointment. For the Central Florida Golden Knights, the 2016 season was a success despite a losing record. Now everyone wants to know how the program will move forward. In particular, people are interested in the coaching career of Scott Frost, who will try to enable his UCF team to take the next step in its evolution.
How Did They End 2016
The Golden Knights played horribly in the Cure Bowl against Arkansas State, which marked a sour ending to the season after a 6-6 run through 12 regularly scheduled games. The bowl game, however, did not change the reality that UCF exceeded all expectations under Frost. This team went 0-12 the year before, necessitating a coaching change. The Knights had to build from the ground up, and they did so by any reasonable measurement. UCF’s season would have been even better had it known blown a home lead against eventual American Athletic Conference champion Temple. This team became very thorny for its opponents in the AAC.
Offseason Changes
Quarterback McKenzie Milton didn’t play in four of the first six games last season, but he eventually gained consistent playing time in the second half of the 2016 season. He now enters the 2017 season as the favorite for the starting quarterback job. Frost is an offensive guru, but beyond that, the AAC is a league in which the offenses have generally been ahead of the defenses. UCF, in order to keep up with the rest of the AAC East Division and the rest of the AAC as a whole, needs a potent offense which can enable the Knights to survive on days when the defense isn’t doing damage control. This is why Milton becomes the biggest change on the Knights’ roster, and why Frost has to get the most out of him.
Team X-Factor
Offensive lineman Tyler Hudanick was injured last season but will be back this season. For a team which needs its offense to hum, and needs Milton – its quarterback – to establish a noticeable comfort zone, the Knights need anchor-level offensive line play. Other candidates could reasonably exist on this list, but when a player is injured one season and has a chance to regroup the next, that’s the kind of difference from one year to another which can improve a team’s fortunes. If Hudanick starts 12 games and excels, the Knights should be able to improve on their win total.
What To Expect From The Knights This Year
Temple will be worse than it was last year, and other AAC East teams will be slightly better. South Florida is the heavy favorite to win the AAC East, but UCF has a legitimate shot at a top-three finish in the division.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 6-7
2015: 0-12
2014: 9-4
2013: 12-1
2012: 10-4
Schedule & Outlook
This is one of the more difficult regular season win totals to handicap. Central Florida feels like a team that is on the rise but “on the rise” for them might be pushing for .500 or slightly better.
The good news for them is that they get to start their season with three straight home games. However, going 2-1 against Florida International, Memphis and Georgia Tech won’t be a walk in the park. From there, they have five road games in their next eight, followed by a season-ending home game against South Florida. The Bulls are expected to be the top team in the AAC.
Last year’s team won six games, but it had nowhere to go but up. Making the ascent from six wins to nine or 10 will be tougher for UCF, so it’s not likely to happen all that once. It’s tough to see where the clear-cut wins come from other than Maine and UConn – this team will have to scrap – but they should be no worse than they were last season. That’s why we see an improvement of one win is something that the Knights can reasonably hope for. Eight wins are not out of the question but it’s not something you’d want to bet on.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Under 7.5
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