The USC Trojans were 1-3. They were a mess. They had just lost a game at Utah they should have won. They were eliminated from the College Football Playoff, no matter what others might tell you. They seemed lost, and their head coach, Clay Helton, was in big trouble.
Two months after that awful start, the Trojans had earned a berth to the Rose Bowl. Three months later, they had won the Rose Bowl. It was quite the turnaround.
How Did They End 2016
The Trojans ended 2016 better than any other team which did not make the College Football Playoff. They won their last nine games, including a comeback victory in the Rose Bowl over Penn State (which was the second-hottest non-Playoff team at the end of 2016). The switch of quarterback from Max Browne to Sam Darnold lit a fire under the offense. The defense gradually understood its role better and better as the season went along, and the result was a complete team which thoroughly whipped eventual Pac-12 champion Washington in Seattle in November. USC and Helton made a complete 180. Helton, an interim coach who was made a permanent coach by previous USC Athletic Director Pat Haden, lived up to Haden’s confidence in him. The turnaround was dramatic, and the future of USC football looks so much brighter as a result.
Offseason Changes
Adoree Jackson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are gone on the perimeter. Jackson will be missed as a cover corner and Smith-Schuster as a receiver, so the Trojans will have to confront the absence of a certain amount of speed. That’s not the full extent of changes to the roster. Offensive linemen Damien Mama, Chad Wheeler and Zach Banner moved to the pros. They were exceptionally good during the nine-game winning streak which turned around the season. It’s the offensive linemen which will be hardest to replace. USC is widely viewed as a team which has the skill people needed to score. The line has to protect Darnold and give him enough time in the pocket to make a difference.
Team X-Factor
Chris Brown and Andrew Vorhees have been pressed into service to deal with injuries to Nico Falah, Toa Lobendahn and Viane Talamaivao on the offensive line. The Trojans are scrambling to fill vacancies and address attritional deficiencies on their offensive front. If this can be addressed and stabilized, the whole team can live up to its potential. If not, the offense will take a big hit, probably enough that the Trojans will fall short of their goals.
What To Expect From The Trojans This Year
The rest of the Pac-12 South is in transition, to the point that USC could lose two Pac-12 games this season and still win the division title. A 7-2 Pac-12 record will probably win the South, and that’s probably what USC will do this year.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 10-3
2015: 8-6
2014: 9-4
2013: 10-4
2012: 7-6
Schedule & Outlook
The Trojans have a challenging start to the season but the good news is they start the year with three home games. It might be a stretch to see them go 3-0 if they had to go to Texas and to Stanford, but they instead host both teams. Their road trips this year are fairly reasonable. They go to Cal, to Washington State, to Notre Dame, to Arizona State and to Colorado. They should win at least three of those games. Other than that, there isn’t anything too strenuous for a team that is considered to be top five in the country. Seven of their 12 games are at home this season. It helps that teams in their division like Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA are rebuilding, for the most part, so USC will be favored in all of those home games.
The Trojans’ offensive line won’t keep them from winning the South, but in a Pac-12 Championship Game against Washington, that lack of strength will probably matter. USC will go to a very good bowl game, but it will fall short of the College Football Playoff this season.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 9.5
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