Even more than Syracuse, the Virginia Cavaliers face a very tall order in the ACC. The conference is very tough when viewed as a 14-team collective, and even though the ACC Coastal is not quite as hard as the Atlantic, Virginia has more problems to shore up than the Orange do. There are more weaknesses on the roster, more of a sense that the puzzle won’t begin to fit until 2019. Everyone in and around the program needs to be patient. That need for patience will probably come into focus midway through this season.
How Did They End 2016
The Cavaliers have consistently failed to solve Virginia Tech in their Commonwealth rivalry, and last year’s regular season finale was no exception. Virginia remained a step behind the Hokies even though the coaches in the rivalry were different from the year before. Bronco Mendenhall of Virginia and Justin Fuente of Virginia Tech replaced Mike London and Frank Beamer, respectively. Virginia had nearly beaten Louisville and Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson earlier in the season, but Jackson completed a tight fourth-down pass into traffic to save the game and eventually enable Louisville to win it moments later. Virginia showed it could be competitive, and the Cavaliers won at Duke – one of their high points of 2016. Nevertheless, a consistent accumulation of losses reminded Mendenhall how high a bar he must clear in order to get Virginia to a bowl game, and then on to bigger achievements.
Offseason Changes
Running back Taquan Mizzell and nose tackle Donte Wilkins are gone, forcing UVA to have to make adjustments on both sides of the ball. Mizzell was both versatile and dependable within the Cavaliers’ offense, so Mendenhall should probably view his situation as one which needs a committee of players, not just one, to compensate for what Mizzell brought to the team last season.
On defense, Wilkins was a space-eater in the middle. His absence means the Cavaliers will be profoundly vulnerable against the run if they don’t get a suitable set of reinforcements. Virginia has to get tougher in the trenches, but defense isn’t even the first point of concern in that regard. It’s this next item below:
Team X-Factor
The offensive line is where Virginia hurt more than anywhere else last year. The skill position talent of this team was decent but not spectacular. When that is the case for any football team, only a strong offensive line can turn that modest offensive talent into an effective, stable, durable, and truly productive unit. Virginia’s gaps and weaknesses were so prolonged that the offense simply couldn’t gain traction in 2016. It will need to in 2017 for the season to be successful.
What To Expect From The Cavaliers This Year
Virginia might make a small grain of progress, but with a fundamentally flawed roster in a tough conference – specifically in an ACC Coastal Division with great defenses from Virginia Tech and Miami – it will be hard for Virginia to finish highly in the division standings. There is a very low ceiling for this team in terms of what it can achieve.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 2-10
2015: 4-8
2014: 5-7
2013: 2-10
2012: 4-8
Schedule & Outlook
Most teams would look at the Cavaliers start the season and think that it’s not very daunting. However, this is not a particularly strong team and they could very struggle against it. They should beat William & Mary in Week 1, but then they’ll host Indiana and Connecticut in subsequent weeks before going to Boise State and coming back to host Duke. If they don’t have at least two wins at that point, it’s hard to see them going over the number. They’ll still have road games at North Carolina, Miami and Louisville – all of which should produce losses – and they host Virginia Tech at the end of the season. The Hokies are a far superior team.
Virginia seems headed for a 4-8 season. It is hard to find a fifth or sixth victory against that schedule for the Cavaliers. That being the case, go with the under. We don’t expect this team to be .500 or bowling this season.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 5.5
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