Over the last five years, the ACC Atlantic has been one of the best divisions in all of college football. The Atlantic is the only division to produce two national champions in the last five seasons. Both Clemson and Florida State won titles, and the Tigers have appeared in three straight playoffs.
The ACC Atlantic will be an excellent division once again in 2018. Clemson is a national title contender, and Florida State should be much improved. Wake Forest and NC State are capable of pulling off upsets any week, and Louisville has one of the best coaches in the conference in Bobby Petrino.
There aren’t many divisions as deep as the ACC Atlantic, and even teams like Boston College and Syracuse are capable of pulling off upsets. Last year, Syracuse upset Clemson in the middle of the season.
Throughout July, we are giving out our over/under picks for every team in college football. We are also giving out best bets for each division and conference. Here are our over/under picks for each team in the ACC Atlantic. Also, check out our picks for the ACC Coastal.
Note: all win totals are for regular season only. Conference championship games and bowl games do not count towards a team’s over/under projection. All win totals are from BetDSI.com.
ACC Atlantic Over/Under
Clemson (10.5)
The Tigers have won at least 11 games in the regular season in three consecutive years. Clemson is the favorite to win the ACC again this year, and the schedule sets up nicely in 2018.
An early road trip to Texas A&M could be tricky, but Dabo Swinney has had the upper hand over Jimbo Fisher in recent years. The Tigers host South Carolina to end the year, and they travel to Tallahassee to take on Florida State. They can slip up in one of those games and still hit the over. Clemson will likely be favored in every game in the regular season.
Swinney also has the luxury of returning one of the most experienced teams in the country. Clemson might have four first round picks starting on the defensive line alone. The Tigers are loaded on both sides of the ball, and Kelly Bryant should improve in his second year as the starting quarterback.
The Pick: Clemson OVER 10.5.
Florida State (8.5)
Florida State is coming off one of its worst seasons in the last 40 years, and Jimbo Fisher departed for Texas A&M after the year. Willie Taggart is taking over, and despite the Noles’ down year in 2017, he’s inheriting a roster with plenty of talent.
The problem for Taggart in his debut season will be the schedule. In the non-conference, the Seminoles travel to Notre Dame and host Florida. They also cross with presumably the toughest two teams from the Coastal division. FSU hosts Virginia Tech in the season opener, and they travel to Miami in early October.
Hosting Clemson helps a little, but that’s a difficult game no matter where it’s played. Winning nine games would be an impressive accomplishment for Taggart with this schedule.
The Pick: Florida State UNDER 8.5.
Louisville (8)
In addition to losing Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, the Cardinals are returning one of the most inexperienced teams in the country. That’s never a great sign, but it’s even worse when you open the season against Alabama. BetDSI lists the Cardinals as a 25.5-point underdog for that Week 1 showdown in Orlando. It’s probably safe to assume Louisville is starting 0-1.
If we count the late season road trip to Clemson as another loss, that means Louisville has to go 8-2 in the rest of its schedule with a very inexperienced roster just to push. Bobby Petrino is a terrific coach, but that’s a tall order.
Crossover games at Virginia and at home against Georgia Tech are very winnable. They also host Florida State, Wake Forest and NC State. But a push feels like the best-case scenario here if you take the over.
The Pick: Louisville UNDER 8.
NC State (7)
The Wolfpack won nine games a season ago, but they had a roster capable of winning the ACC. ESPN college football analyst Cole Cubelic picked NC State to make the playoffs before the 2017 season. While they obviously didn’t make it, they certainly had a team talented enough to win 11-plus games.
My FINAL @CFBPlayoff picks:
Alabama
Ohio State
Stanford
NC State— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) August 25, 2017
Despite losing star defensive end Bradley Chubb to the NFL, the Wolfpack still have a talented roster entering 2018. Ryan Finley was one of the best quarterbacks in the conference last year. He’s also playing behind a veteran offensive line that returns three starters.
NC State has crossover games against Virginia and at North Carolina. They also have three winnable non-conference games against James Madison, Georgia State and at Marshall — though the Thundering Herd could give them trouble. West Virginia visits Raleigh in September for a very intriguing early season showdown.
Reaching seven wins is very doable if they can take care of business at home during conference play.
The Pick: NC State OVER 7.
Wake Forest (6.5)
Dave Clawson has done a terrific job in turning around the Demon Deacons in just a few seasons. After back-to-back three-win seasons, Clawson led Wake Forest to 15 wins overall and two bowl wins in the last two years. Can Clawson sustain this success in Winston-Salem? It’s not exactly an easy place to win.
For 2018, the Demon Deacons are expected to make it back to a bowl game. Three non-conference games against Tulane, Towson and Rice should all be wins. They host Notre Dame and Clemson, and they travel to Louisville, Florida State and NC State.
Wake Forest also returns a relatively experienced roster. Clawson has enough to work with to get the Demon Deacons back into a bowl game.
The Pick: Wake Forest OVER 6.5.
Boston College (6)
The Eagles exceeded expectations by three wins last year. Their over/under was set at four, and they finished 7-5 in the regular season. According to Phil Steele, Boston College returns one of the most experienced rosters in the country this year.
Unfortunately, the schedule is brutal for 2018. The ACC Atlantic is a tough enough division, but Boston College also crosses with Miami and Virginia Tech. To make matters worse, here is a four-week stretch near the end of the season: vs. Miami, at Virginia Tech, vs. Clemson, at Florida State. Yikes.
Boston College should start 2-0 with wins over UMass and Holy Cross, and they should also beat Temple. But the road game at Purdue is tough, and they also play at NC State and Wake Forest. Steve Addazio might need to reach another bowl game to keep his job, and that will be a very tough task.
The Pick: Boston College UNDER 6.
Syracuse (4.5)
Syracuse won four games in each of Dino Babers’ first two seasons, and they’re looking to turn the corner in his third year. The first game of the season at Western Michigan is a must-win if they want to make a bowl game and hit the over.
Home games against Wagner and UConn should be wins, while the road contest at Notre Dame will likely be a loss. To hit the over, the Orange will need to steal a road game or two in conference play. It’s a manageable slate that includes at Boston College, Pitt and Wake Forest. The home schedule includes NC State, Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina.
Last year, Syracuse only won two conference games, but one of those was a massive upset over ACC Atlantic foe Clemson. Can the Orange pull off another home upset this year? They were a tough out most weeks last season, and they should be a better team in 2018.
The Pick: Syracuse OVER 4.5.
Best Bets
Boston College UNDER 6
NC State OVER 7
