The 2016 Big Ten West Division figured to put the Iowa Hawkeyes in the catbird seat. Iowa won its first 12 games in the 2015 season and barely lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Iowa narrowly missed out on the College Football Playoff but still beat out Ohio State for a spot in the Rose Bowl. That Iowa team returned largely intact, with a veteran starting quarterback and other pieces in the offense expected to control the division once again. Yet, Iowa never meshed on offense, and the Hawkeyes stumbled through much of their year. Wisconsin became the best team in the division. The Badgers lost two Big Ten games, but they were narrow losses to Ohio State and Michigan. The Badgers did not lose a single game in the West. They caught and passed Nebraska down the stretch to win the division, even though they rotated quarterbacks over the course of the season. Now, a year later, the Badgers are the target in the division, the team everyone wants to beat. Can the preseason Big Ten West favorite handle the heat, or will there be another surprise relative to everyone’s August expectations?
Odds:
Illinois +6,500
Purdue +6,500
Minnesota +1,500
Northwestern +800
Iowa +300
Nebraska +250
Wisconsin -250
Team On The Rise:
Northwestern gets its starting quarterback, Clayton Thorson, back for another season, along with star running back and out of the backfield pass-catcher Justin Jackson. Northwestern will be able to run and pass the ball. The passing game might be simple at times, but a basic flat pass to Jackson in open space will often be more than enough for the Wildcats to move the ball. Northwestern has recruited a considerable amount of speed on its offense. That ingredient combined with an agile defense will be good enough to eclipse most of the teams NU will face in the Big Ten. If any team has a shot at taking down Wisconsin, it’s probably Northwestern. Iowa will also have a shot, but Northwestern has better odds.
Team In Decline:
Nebraska made a serious bid at the division title last season – that was because the Huskers had a veteran quarterback and a roster which had a lot of upperclassmen. That same roster stumbled in 2015, but it was widely felt that Nebraska would be fine in 2016. That instinct largely turned out to be true. Now, though, after a lot of graduations, the Nebraska roster in 2017 will be a lot younger. The program is not in trouble – recruiting is generally viewed to be going well – but the Huskers will probably take a noticeable step back this season. They are not a genuine contender for the division title, even though the listed betting odds above put them at No. 2. That’s not an accurate read of their 2017 status.
Hot Seat:
There is no real hot seat, but if Nebraska does poorly, beyond reasonable expectations of a minimum floor, Mike Riley could be shown the door. It’s extremely unlikely, and again, no one seat in the division is very hot, but Riley comes the closest.
Outlook
Wisconsin is a sizable favorite in the Big Ten West and it’s easy to see why. There is no Ohio State, no Michigan and no Penn State in the Big Ten West. All three of those juggernauts reside in the Big Ten East. Beyond that, the Badgers catch a pretty good break as they don’t have to face all three of those teams. They’ll have to play Michigan in a contest that they get to host, but they don’t have to play Penn State or Ohio State at all. That’s a big bonus when you consider that Nebraska, the team that is deemed to be Wisconsin’s biggest competition in the West, has to go to Penn State and will host Ohio State. Iowa will host both Ohio State and Penn State.
With Wisconsin getting to host the Iowa game and Nebraska having a slightly tougher schedule ,that could be the difference. Look for Wisconsin to win the West.
Prediction: Wisconsin to win the Big Ten West
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