If it’s a big game, bet on Alabama. That’s the message heard around the country after the Crimson Tide’s 29-0 destruction of LSU in what was billed as the Game of the Year in college football.
Elsewhere, however, the college football betting world saw another significant result: Washington State, the last team in the country unbeaten against the spread, beat California 19-13 but failed to cover the 7.5-point number and dropped to 8-1 ATS.
There might still be undefeated teams in the CFP’s eyes, but not in the minds of the bookies. Let’s take a look at this week’s NCAA Football ATS Power Rankings:
NCAA Football ATS Power Rankings
- Alabama (9-0, 6-3 ATS, last week: 1)
The Crimson Tide continue to cover what seem like comical spreads with ease. More than two touchdowns at Tiger Stadium? No problem. Up next is another shockingly big number, 26 points, against a top-20 team in Mississippi State.
Related: College Football Betting Guide | Week 11 Odds
- Clemson (9-0, 5-4 ATS, last week: 2)
There was a time this season when the Tigers didn’t seem like a team you could trust against a big spread. That certainly hasn’t been the case in the past month; Saturday’s 77-16 demolition of Louisville was just the latest example. The Tigers are giving 20 points in a tricky road trip at Boston College this week.
- Notre Dame (9-0, 4-3-2 ATS, last week: 3)
Another week, another push for the Irish, who beat Northwestern 31-21 as 10-point favorites. Continuing to do what’s expected will get Notre Dame into the College Football Playoff, because the Irish should be favorites in each of their final three games, starting with a home game against Florida State (+18).
- Michigan (8-1, 6-3 ATS, last week: 4)
We had the Wolverines ranked ahead of LSU already, so the change the rest of the country is making isn’t necessary here. Michigan threw down another impressive performance in beating Penn State 42-7 to crush the Nittany Lions and the 13.5-point spread. Lowly Rutgers is next, and even though the Scarlet Knights are at home, the number is as high as you’d think: 37.5
- Georgia (8-1, 5-4 ATS, last week: 6)
The Bulldogs rolled Kentucky and made their no-show at LSU all the more perplexing. But that’s college football, unless you’re Alabama: Most teams can’t bring it every single week. With the SEC East championship locked up, Georgia is a 14.5-point favorite in a big spot against Auburn this week.
- West Virginia (7-1, 5-2-1 ATS, last week: 9)
LSU-Alabama dominated the headlines going in, but the most memorable moment of Week 10 was Will Grier scoring on a 2-point conversion to beat Texas 42-41. Sportsbooks across the country erupted, too. Depending on what number you got the game at, the 2-pointer could have won it, lost it or forced a push (which is how we’ll record it, with WVU -1 as the official closing line).
- Central Florida (8-0, 6-2 ATS, last week: 10)
Are the Knights really this good? Probably not. But they continue to be valuable for bettors. Even with a sluggish first half against Temple, UCF ended up winning 52-40 to beat the 10-point spread. Central Florida’s outright winning streak is now 21 games, and will be expected to reach 22 against Navy (+25.5).
- Oklahoma (8-1, 4-5 ATS, last week: 11)
The Sooners didn’t win any of their spread backers money this weekend, but they managed to survive a wild game at Texas Tech, 51-46, and stay in the CFP hunt. Anything can happen in the Bedlam rivalry against Oklahoma State, but this version is expected to be one-sided: Oklahoma is favored by 17.5 at home.
- LSU (7-2, 5-4 ATS, last week: 5)
Those who suspected the Tigers were punching above their weight class were proven correct when Alabama completely silenced LSU’s raucous crowd Saturday night, but this team is still 7-2 against what most metrics agree has been the toughest schedule in the country. That changes the next two weeks with games against lowly Arkansas (+13) and Rice.
- Ohio State (8-1, 3-6 ATS, last week: 8)
The Buckeyes also remain in the national title hunt, even if they don’t seem to be playing like it. Ohio State sleepwalked its way to a 36-31 win against Nebraska (+18) but is only -3.5 — tied for its lowest chalk status of the year — at Michigan State. And Michigan looms.
- Washington State (8-1, 8-1 ATS, last week: 14)
One of the best stories in college football continued when Wazzu won a crazy game against Cal that included a bit of everything. It also was the Cougars’ first loss against the spread, but that won’t keep the Pirate, Mike Leach, and his crew down as they go to Colorado (+6) this week.
- Utah State (8-1, 8-1 ATS, last week: 17)
With most of the teams around them in the rankings struggling, it’s time to give the Aggies a little more credit. They just keep pounding teams left and right and have proven to be one of the nation’s most consistent squads. Utah State is -31 against San Jose State this week.
- Fresno State (8-1, 8-1 ATS, last week: 18)
Speaking of Mountain West teams that deserve a little more pub, how about the Bulldogs, who have found an explosive offense to go with their solid defense? This might be the best Group of Five team in the country, though they’ll need to pass a big blue-turf test as three-point chalk at Boise State this Friday night to prove it.
- Kentucky (7-2, 4-5 ATS, last week: 12)
The dream of an SEC East title and a chance at Alabama with the CFP on the line died a quick death for the Wildcats in a 34-17 loss to Georgia. That continues the odd trend of Kentucky being a surprise team but somehow not being all that profitable for bettors. The Cats are only 4-point favorites at Tennessee.
- Michigan State (6-3, 4-5 ATS, last week: 16)
Forgotten after a few lackluster early weeks, the Spartans have rebounded to have another solid season under Mark Dantonio. They have key wins against Penn State and Utah State and have a shot for an even bigger victory with Ohio State visiting East Lansing this Saturday.
- Florida (6-3, 6-3 ATS, last week: 7)
Oof. A week after being exposed by Georgia, the Gators fell flat on their faces again against Missouri in a 38-17 loss as 5.5-point favorites. The schedule lightens up at least, but Dan Mullen has to figure out his quarterback situation with South Carolina (+6) coming to town.
- Penn State (6-3, 5-4 ATS, last week: 13)
Maybe Michigan is just that good — heck the Wolverines are blowing everyone else out — but for a team that seemed on the brink of the national title conversation just a month ago, the Nittany Lions’ ugly 42-7 loss in Ann Arbor is a stinger. The Nittany Lions have been better as a big favorite and should be just that the rest of the way, starting with a visit from Wisconsin (+8).
- Mississippi State (6-3, 6-3 ATS, last week: NR)
Welcome back to the rankings to the Bulldogs, who are clearly the best of the Auburn-A&M-State trio that has been stuck in the middle of the SEC West standings. Now we find out whether Mississippi State might be the team that can challenge Alabama. Could the Tide have a letdown after LSU? Who are we kidding, it probably won’t matter (but it might against the 26-point number).
- Texas (6-3, 3-5-1 ATS, last week: 15)
It goes into the books as a push for Texas, but it’s hard to imagine a more painful one than surrendering a late touchdown drive and game-winning 2-point conversion at home. That’s two losses in a row for the Longhorns, who have another tricky game this week as 1-point favorites at Texas Tech.
- Cincinnati (8-1, 6-3 ATS, last week: NR)
There are a lot of teams who could fill this last spot, but we’ll give the nod for this week to the Bearcats, who outside of an overtime loss to Temple have just kept winning. They’re listed as 12-point favorites over South Florida before a season-defining trip to Central Florida on Nov. 17.
Also considered (alphabetical order): Appalachian State, Auburn, Boston College, Georgia Southern, Iowa, Iowa State, Missouri, NC State, Northwestern, Purdue, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UAB, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin
