With the college football season about two-thirds over, bettors know about what to expect from most teams across the country — or at least they know as much as they’re ever going to and that knowledge is reflected in the NCAA Power Rankings.
The SEC West is a prime example. Alabama and LSU, headed for their collision at 8 p.m. ET Saturday night in Baton Rouge, are clearly the real deal. But what about the other teams? Mississippi State has losses to Kentucky and Florida but defeated Texas A&M and Auburn. A&M defeated Kentucky but lost to Mississippi State. Auburn was the most highly touted of the three but has stumbled against the Bulldogs (and Tennessee) before playing A&M this weekend.
For now, the GMS Power Rankings’ solution will be to leave all three of those teams outside the top 20 pending further results. That allows newcomers Fresno State and Utah (combined 13-3 overall, 12-4 against the spread) to enjoy their first spots in the rankings this year.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
But back to the top. Alabama’s stiffest test of the season (and smallest spread, at a still-hefty 14.5 points) comes against No. 5 LSU in a game that will have huge SEC and College Football Playoff implications. Meanwhile, Notre Dame faces a road test at Northwestern, Penn State visits Michigan and Georgia and Kentucky play what’s basically an elimination game in the SEC East and the CFP. It’s bound to be a fun week.
NCAA Power Rankings
- Alabama (8-0, 5-3 ATS, last week: 1)
The juiciest matchup in the Alabama-LSU showdown also might be the most important: How will Tua Tagovailoa — who has thrown 25 touchdown passes and zero interceptions — fare against LSU’s formidable pass defense, which leads the nation with 14 interceptions and features surefire top-10 NFL draft pick Greedy Williams. If the Tigers can’t slow down Tua, maybe nobody can. And with a 14-point spread, that seems to be the consensus.
- Clemson (8-0, 4-4 ATS, last week: 3)
Coach Dabo Swinney’s decision to bench Kelly Bryant and turn to true freshman Trevor Lawrence at quarterback was somewhat controversial, especially when Bryant decided to transfer (Missouri, Arkansas, Louisville and Baylor are reportedly among his finalists for his senior season), but you certainly can’t argue with the results: Lawrence and the Tigers have been spectacular since surviving a scare against Syracuse (which has entered the Associated Press Top 25), going 3-0 against the spread vs. Wake Forest, NC State and Florida State. Up next is struggling Louisville, with a truly gargantuan spread of 37.5.
- Notre Dame (8-0, 4-3-1 ATS, last week: 2)
It took more than half the season, but we finally got a push from a top-10 team: Notre Dame beat Navy 44-22 as a 22-point favorite in San Diego. The Fighting Irish continue to do enough to maintain their top-5 status, but there still seems to be something lacking in many of their games against should-be overwhelmed competition. On the other hand, Notre Dame seems to play better in its biggest games. You could consider this week’s tilt at Northwestern as one of them. The Irish are laying eight points.
- Michigan (7-1, 5-3 ATS, last week: 5)
One of the many notable teams off last week was the Wolverines, who had an extra week to prepare for a visit from Penn State in another huge game this weekend. If Michigan, which has allowed more than 20 points just twice this season (a 24-17 loss to Notre Dame and a 42-21 victory against Maryland) wins here as 10-point chalk, it should be smooth sailing until the Nov. 24 visit to Ohio State.
- LSU (7-1, 5-3 ATS, last week: 6)
LSU prides itself on its record on Saturday nights in Death Valley, when Tiger Stadium becomes one of the most formidable home-field advantages in the nation. The Tigers will need all the help they can get. On the betting line, they’re receiving two touchdowns. Is that enough for you? Gamblers and sportsbooks everywhere will be watching closely. Chances are, it’ll be the most wagered-on game in the entire college football regular season.
- Georgia (7-1, 4-4 ATS, last week: 7)
The Bulldogs rebounded from their own debacle at LSU with a resounding triumph against rival Florida, winning 36-71 and making mincemeat of both the Gators and the seven-point line. Georgia has had a frustrating on-again, off-again performance against the spread for most of the season. If that continues this week, the Dogs could be for a fight for the SEC East, as they’re 9.5-point favorites against Kentucky in another big game.
- Florida (6-2, 6-2 ATS, last week: 5)
On the flip side, the Gators suffered their second loss both straight up and against the spread. When Florida’s defense doesn’t perform well — or when its offense gives up valuable field position — this is just not a team that can win shootouts. This week’s opponent, Missouri, has had trouble closing games, but the Tigers can score when they get rolling behind quarterback Drew Lock and could pose an interesting test for Florida, which is giving five and a half points.
- Ohio State (7-1, 3-5 ATS, last week: 8)
The Buckeyes have had a week to stew over their loss to Purdue and prepare for a tricky three-game stretch that starts with a visit from Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are only 2-6 but are certainly playing better and won’t be the rollover they appeared to be early in the season. After that, Ohio State has road trips to Michigan State and Maryland to navigate before the big one against That Team Up North, the Michigan Wolverines. But first things first: Ohio State will try to win — and cover the spread for the first time since Sept. 22 — as 21-point chalk against Nebraska.
- West Virginia (6-1, 5-2 ATS, last week: 10)
We’ve been referencing the Mountaineers’ difficult November all season, and now it’s here. First up is a trip to Texas, which lost its Top-10 status with a loss at Oklahoma State but will still be a tough test for West Virginia, which thumped Baylor 58-14 last Thursday to cover for the fifth time in seven tries. Then it’s a home game against TCU, a trip to Oklahoma State and a visit from Oklahoma. The final exam is about to begin for Will Grier and the Mountaineers.
- Central Florida (7-0, 5-2 ATS, last week: 9)
One of the only notable weekday games this week is a Thursday night matchup featuring the Knights against Temple (+10.5). It’s the first of three straight home games for UCF, which has done a brilliant job taking care of double-digit spreads this season, going 5-1 against the number in that situation. The Knights figure to have three more 10+-point spreads before a closing trip to rival South Florida.
- Oklahoma (7-1, 4-4 ATS, last week: 13)
Fans and pundits tend to overreact to losses, and the Sooners might provide a classic example. Yes, Oklahoma hurt itself in a big way with the loss to Texas a few weeks ago, but a few losses by top teams around the country and the Sooners find themselves still very much in contention for the Big 12 title and a CFP berth. In two games since the loss, OU has scored 103 points and surrendered just 41. They’re 10-point chalk at Texas Tech this week.
- Kentucky (7-1, 4-4 ATS, last week: 14)
The Wildcats completed a miraculous 15-14 comeback victory at Missouri with brilliant defense (Mizzou didn’t have a single first down in the second half), timely offense and special teams (a punt-return TD and an 81-yard drive in the final minutes) and a questionable-at-best pass interference penalty that gave them one more play. Kentucky cashed in on that play, as it has all season in becoming one of the nation’s most pleasant surprises. Now, if the Wildcats can beat Georgia at home as a 9.5-point underdog, they’ll take that surprise story all the way to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.
- Penn State (6-2, 5-3 ATS, last week: 15)
Another comeback winner last week was the Nittany Lions, who erased an early deficit to beat Iowa 30-24 and barely cover the 5.5-point spread. It was Penn State’s first victory for its backers since losing 27-26 to Ohio State as 3.5-point underdogs back on Sept. 29. Now the Lions will be dogs for the first time since then, getting 10 points for a trip to Michigan. Penn State likely will be significant favorites in its final three games.
- Washington State (7-1, 8-0 ATS, last week: 16)
The Cougars did it again, winning 41-38 at Stanford as 2.5-point underdogs. Wazzu’s magic season just keeps rolling, although the numbers to stay undefeated against the spread will start to get bigger as WSU keeps covering. This week, the Cougars are 10.5-point chalk against Cal before a difficult road trip to Colorado.
- Texas (6-2, 3-5 ATS, last week: 12)
Most of the major computer rankings aren’t fond of the Longhorns, which explains why they weren’t favored by more than three points at Oklahoma State last week … and perhaps why they lost the game outright. Texas can only live off of its win against Oklahoma (and a couple of lesser but still solid victories against USC and TCU) for so long. Texas is favored by 2.5 points against West Virginia this week in an attempt to stay tied for the Big 12 lead.
- Michigan State (5-3, 3-5 ATS, last week: 19)
The Spartans’ mercurial season continued last week when it beat Purdue 23-13 in a game that had jumped the fence with sharp money on the Boilermakers: Michigan State opened as a favorite but was a 2.5-point underdog by kickoff. Regardless, the victory continues a trend of the Spartans reeling you back in just when you were ready to give up on them. So what now? A trap of a road trip to Maryland as a two-point favorite before a visit from Ohio State. Good luck figuring out how this team will do with those games.
- Utah State (7-1, 7-1 ATS, last week: 20)
For the third time, the Aggies put up 60 points last week, obliterating New Mexico 61-19 (they also scored 59 in a fourth game). That kind of offensive output will cover almost any spread, and so Utah State has been one of the country’s best teams to bet on. This week will bring an interesting decision, though — the Aggies are 18-point favorites against Hawaii, which usually gets a big bump from playing at home on the islands. Can Utah State keep rolling?
- Fresno State (7-1, 7-1 ATS, last week: NR)
If you’re willing to stay up late, the Mountain West has another team that’s been tremendous, both for its fans and for those who wager on it. The Bulldogs do it differently than Utah State, with a tremendous defense, though they scored 50 points themselves last week. In case you’re wondering, Fresno State and Utah State wouldn’t play until the Mountain West Conference championship game, though both teams have visits to Boise State to contend with before then. First for Fresno is a 24.5-point spread at UNLV.
- Utah (6-2, 5-3 ATS, last week: NR)
Another newcomer to the power rankings is Utah, which is playing its best football and appears to be a near lock for the South Division’s berth in the Pac-12 title game. The Utes have scored between 40 and 42 points in each of their past four victories since back-to-back losses to Washington and Washington State. They face a few more obstacles as they continue to ascend the rankings, starting with a trip to Arizona State this week. Utah is -7.
- Iowa (6-2, 6-2 ATS, last week: 18)
The Hawkeyes hang on in the Top 20 despite failing to cover at Penn State, in part thanks to a big win early in the season over Iowa State, which has become a Big 12 title contender, and in part because Iowa has been so consistent. The Hawkeyes are road underdogs again this week, however, so we’ll see how they fare in that role for a second straight game. They’re getting three points from oddsmakers for a trip to Purdue.
Also considered (alphabetical order): Appalachian State, Auburn, Cincinnati, Georgia Southern, Mississippi State, NC State, Oklahoma State, Purdue, South Florida, Stanford, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UAB, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin
