Week 1 of the college football season, a five-day marathon of big games, is in the books. There weren’t too many surprises — though Penn State and Michigan State came close to suffering huge upsets, and Miami and Florida State lost big to underdogs LSU and Virginia Tech, respectively.
Last week’s GMS Power Rankings, by the way, foreshadowed that Miami might have trouble with LSU, ranking the Hurricanes much lower and the Tigers higher than the traditional polls.
Outside of those teams, however, the traditional AP and coaches rankings won’t change too much. Penn State won, so why drop them? Those rankings will tell you it doesn’t matter than Oklahoma looked more impressive against its overmatched opponent than, say, Georgia. It only matters that they both won.
But in the Get More Sports Power Rankings, we do care about those factors, as all of them affect a team’s power in the eyes of oddsmakers. Using a combination of computer rankings and Vegas odds, we present our own Week 2 NCAA power rankings to give you a true sense of the country’s most powerful teams.
NCAA Power Rankings
1. Alabama (1-0, last week: 1)
The Crimson Tide unleashed Tua Tagovailoa on Louisville last week, and the nation might soon find out the answer to this question: What happens when Alabama, so dominant in the running game and on defense in Nick Saban’s tenure, finally has an All-American quarterback, too? Louisville had no chance, and it figures that most of Alabama’s opponents will be in the same predicament.
Saban, by the way, improved to 11-1 against the spread in season openers at Alabama, the majority of which have been against major-conference opponents. But a word of warning before you rush to back the Tide again this week at -37 against Arkansas State: Bama is just 4-13-1 against the spread when taking on non-power conference teams since 2012.
Related: College football betting guide
2. Clemson (1-0, last week: 2)
No need to drop the Tigers from this perch even though they ho-hummed their way through a 48-7 victory against Furman. This was basically a glorified extension of preseason camp for Clemson, and coach Dabo Swinney and staff treated it as such.
The Tigers’ first real test comes this week with a trip to College Station, Texas, to take on Texas A&M. College Gameday will be in the house and the 12th man will have Kyle Field shaking (literally) as the Aggies try to pull the upset. But here’s a clear indication of this team’s power: Despite all of that home-field emotion, Clemson is a 12-point favorite.
3. Oklahoma (1-0, last week: 6)
Perhaps no team was more impressive last week than the Sooners, who annihilated a well-respected Florida Atlantic team, 63-14. And it wasn’t just the score: Oklahoma held a 42-0 lead after running just 30 offensive plays, five of which ended in a touchdown (the other score came on a blocked-punt return).
There are tougher tests ahead, but the Sooners are whopping 30-point favorites to beat UCLA this week and it’s clear Oklahoma will be a healthy favorite in all of its remaining regular-season games.
4. Ohio State (1-0, last week: 3)
No Urban Meyer, no real problem for the Buckeyes in their 77-31 demolition of Oregon State. But keep in mind the Beavers were one of the worst power conference teams in the nation last year (perhaps only Kansas was worse) and yet came to the horseshoe and put up 31 points on Ohio State.
Maybe Oregon State is improved, and maybe that was simply Ohio State losing focus with a big lead and without its head coach, but it’s still a bit concerning for Buckeyes backers going forward.
5. Georgia (1-0, last week: 4)
The Bulldogs scored on every possession of the first half except for a kneel-down before halftime, and they held Austin Peay down the rest of the way in a 45-0 victory. When you’re a Top-5 team you get no bonus points for beating up on FCS teams. Of course, Georgia has a much tougher test — on the road, no less — coming up.
The Bulldogs will face South Carolina in what should be not only a better gauge for their power but also for their chances at the College Football Playoff. An upset loss in Columbia, South Carolina, would greatly diminish Georgia’s chances at winning the SEC Eastern Division, much less the whole conference or the national title.
6. Auburn (1-0, last week: 10)
This is a list of power rankings, and GMS was tempted to go with Washington for this spot even though the Huskies lost to Auburn at the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta. But big plays matter, and Auburn executed on the biggest ones of the day in a 21-16 victory.
Still, it begs the question: If the teams had played at a true neutral site, say Denver or Chicago, would Auburn still be favored? After seeing the teams fight basically evenly in Atlanta, it’s a tough question to answer. But to the victor go the spoils, and Auburn gets this ranking and an inside path to the College Football Playoff.
7. Washington (0-1, last week: 5)
On the flip side, it’s difficult to see the Huskies’ path to the playoff now, unless they and Auburn both run the table. Even if Washington goes to 12-1 this season, the Huskies will be blocked out of the CFP in most scenarios because of the loss in Atlanta.
But that doesn’t mean Washington is any less powerful. The Huskies very nearly got by Auburn despite traveling across the country and despite the absence of injured left tackle Trey Adams. It’s safe to say Washington would be favored at a neutral site against any team below them on this list.
8. Wisconsin (1-0, last week: 7)
It wasn’t the week’s most dominant performance, but the Badgers left no doubt with their 34-3 victory against Western Kentucky on Friday night. Jonathan Taylor kick-started his Heisman Trophy campaign with two long touchdown runs, but it felt as if Wisconsin never found its highest gear.
The Badgers should continue to cruise, as they will be big favorites against New Mexico and BYU over the next two weeks before the Big Ten Conference season starts. Even then, Wisconsin’s first true test might not come until Oct. 13 at Michigan.
9. Stanford (1-0, last week: 11)
It happened late Friday night in front of a sparse crowd, so many might not have noticed, but the Cardinal quietly notched one of the weekend’s better wins. The 31-10 victory against San Diego State was even more impressive when you consider that Heisman hopeful running back Bryce Love didn’t play well.
Stanford has a huge September, with a home game against USC this week, followed by road trips to Oregon and Notre Dame. If Love is going to stay on the Heisman list, and if the Cardinal is going to stay in the top 10, they’ll need to play well in those big games.
10 Notre Dame (1-0, last week: 15)
The Fighting Irish displayed a little bit of everything, except perhaps a finishing touch, in its tough 24-17 victory at home against Michigan. Notre Dame jumped out to a big lead and then held on as the Wolverines tried to grind their way back into the game.
It’s unclear whether this team has enough firepower to win every big game on its schedule, but it’s also true that only three remaining opponents appear in these power rankings: Stanford, Virginia Tech and USC. It’s a solid schedule, and the Irish could be favored in every game the rest of the way.
11. LSU (1-0, last week: 20)
Like most outlets, the GMS Power Rankings underrated the Tigers last week, though our No. 20 ranking wasn’t as low as many places had them. LSU’s front seven was dominant in a 33-17 win against Miami in which the score was 33-3 at one point.
Joe Burrow had pedestrian numbers but also managed LSU’s offense well and didn’t make any big mistakes, which might be all the Tigers need. Of course, an upcoming game at Auburn — followed by home games with Georgia and Alabama — will provide more answers.
12. Penn State (1-0, last week: 8)
Yes, it was just one game, and yes, the Nittany Lions survived to beat Appalachian State 45-38 in overtime, but there should be a lot of concern in Happy Valley. While Penn State was allowing the Mountaineers to score 21 straight points and turn a 31-17 deficit into a 38-31 lead, this question popped into many minds: How many national championship-caliber teams were ever scared by a small-conference opponent at home?
It is certainly possible the Nittany Lions right the ship, and if they do, the App State scare will be long forgotten. But after one week, there are serious doubts about this team.
13. Mississippi State (1-0, last week: 13)
Star quarterback Nick Fitzgerald was suspended, but Keytaon Thompson filled in admirably, throwing for five touchdown passes in a 63-6 rout of Stephen F. Austin. Again, games against FCS opponents don’t count for much, but better to rout your overmatched foe — the Bulldogs had a whopping 17 tackles for loss — than mess around like Penn State and Michigan State did.
It quickly gets more interesting for Mississippi State, which has a tricky road trip to Manhattan, Kan., to face Kansas State this week. The Bulldogs, with Fitzgerald back under center, are healthy 9-point favorites.
14. Michigan State (1-0, last week: 9)
Ultimately, like with Penn State, it’s no harm, no foul for the Spartans after they escaped a visit from Utah State with a 38-31 victory. For one thing, Utah State might be better than anyone thought, but again, it’s hard to imagine one of the nation’s elite teams having trouble in a home game like that.
Michigan State will need to improve quickly with road trips to Arizona State and Indiana coming in the next two weeks. The Spartans are a 6.5-point favorite on their long road trip to Tempe, Arizona.
15. Michigan (0-1, last week: 12)
The arrival of heralded transfer quarterback Shea Patterson from Ole Miss didn’t solve the puzzle that Michigan has had at quarterback basically ever since Tom Brady left campus. Patterson didn’t play terribly, but he also didn’t make enough plays to give Michigan a chance in what ended up as a 24-17 loss at Notre Dame.
The good news is Michigan has some time to regroup. The Wolverines are 27.5-point favorites against Western Michigan this week and will be huge frontrunners again against SMU the next week before Big Ten play starts with a visit from Nebraska.
16. Virginia Tech (1-0, last week: NR)
Perhaps the biggest miss on the first set of GMS power rankings was the Hokies, who weren’t even on the “also considered” list but went to Tallahassee, Florida, and pushed around Florida State in a 24-3 victory on Monday night. During the key third quarter, Virginia Tech allowed exactly one positive play to Florida State’s offense.
The Hokies have an FCS foe, William & Mary, up next, followed by a visit from lowly East Carolina and a trip to Old Dominion. Things don’t get interesting again until Virginia Tech visits Duke on Sept. 29 and then welcomes in Notre Dame the following week.
17. West Virginia (1-0, last week: NR)
It remains to be seen whether Tennessee will be an SEC also-ran again this season, but it was nonetheless impressive to see the Mountaineers run away and hide from the Volunteers in a 40-14 neutral-site victory, with West Virginia outscoring Tennessee 27-7 after halftime.
Quarterback Will Grier kickstarted his Heisman campaign with 429 yards and five touchdowns passing, and the WVU defense, an Achilles heel last year, appeared to be much improved. Youngstown State of the FCS is up next, followed by a trip to NC State.
18. USC (1-0, last week: 17)
It’s always good to get off to a winning start, and true freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels and the Trojans did that with a 43-21 victory against UNLV in Week 1. But the level of competition ramps up steeply with trips to Stanford and Texas in the next two weeks.
This team has enough talent to make a rise in these power rankings in a hurry, if it can prove that Daniels and company have the seasoning to turn that talent into results on the field. USC is a 3.5-point underdog at Stanford, so that would be a good place to start showing it.
19. Oklahoma State (1-0, last week: 19)
An easy 58-17 win against Missouri State raised no red flags but also proved nothing for the Cowboys, who have much less experience now than they did a year ago. This week’s game against South Alabama has Oklahoma State listed as a 31.5-point favorite, so it might not prove much either. After that is a visit from Boise State, which will be a very difficult test.
20. Central Florida (1-0, last week: NR)
Routing UConn 56-17 was impressive, but it’s also something most of the teams on this list could have done. And unfortunately, the Knights don’t have many, if any, opportunities to prove they belong higher than this. A trip to North Carolina, projected to be among the ACC’s worst teams, and a trip to Memphis or South Florida are about as good as it gets.
As such, no matter how many teams UCF beats into submission, it will likely hover at or below this No. 20 mark most of the season.
Also considered: Miami, TCU, Texas A&M, Oregon, Boise State, Florida State, Utah, South Carolina
