One of the nation’s best teams finally covered its first spread on Saturday, as Clemson beat Georgia Tech, 49-21, to defeat the Yellow Jackets plus 16 points. The Tigers were suffering in the Get More Sports NCAA power rankings because of their inability to cover in the first three weeks, but they make a leap into the top five for Week 5.
It was a rough week for bettors who took top teams minus the points this week, as Georgia (-14.5 against Missouri, won 43-29), LSU (-20.5 against Louisiana Tech, won 38-21), Oklahoma (-28.5 against Army, survived 28-21 in overtime), Mississippi State (-9.5 at Kentucky, lost 28-7) and Washington (-18 against Arizona State, won 27-20) all failed to beat the number.
Even the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide finally lost a cover to the backdoor monster, as a late Texas A&M touchdown allowed the Aggies — a top 25-caliber team in their own right that’s 4-0 against the spread — to cover the 24-point number at 45-23. Still, Alabama remains the only choice to top this or any other poll.
Related: College Football Betting Guide
Ohio State, Stanford and Auburn were the only top 10 teams to cover the spread in Week 4, and even those were sweats. The favorites either needed late garbage-time points (Ohio State and Auburn) or a miraculous comeback and overtime touchdown (Stanford) to beat the number.
Including Texas A&M, there are nine teams that remain unbeaten against the spread. The others are: Florida International (4-0), Washington State (4-0), Virginia (4-0), Utah State (4-0), Georgia Southern (3-0), West Virginia (3-0), Appalachian State (3-0) and Syracuse (3-0-1).
Dropping out from last week’s rankings are Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and Boston College, all of whom suffered losses as favorites, plus Boise State, whose big loss at Oklahoma State a week ago tied them to the Cowboys’ anchor.
NCAA Power Rankings
- Alabama (4-0, 3-1 ATS, last week: 1)
There’s no question Alabama would have had another double-digit cover had starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has been insanely hot, stayed in the game for four quarters. Of course, that’s one of the tricks with betting big favorites: You’ve got to hope they build a big enough lead to withstand for when the substitutes inevitably come on. One situation to watch here is the status of Jalen Hurts, who probably is the best backup quarterback in the country and could still transfer this week without losing a year of eligibility. That will no longer be the case if he plays in a fifth game.
- Ohio State (4-0, 3-1 ATS, last week: 2)
Another week, another cover for the Buckeyes, though this one took a touchdown in the final couple of minutes to cover the big 37.5-point number against Tulane. To be fair, the score was 42-6 at halftime and Ohio State had it on cruise control. Up next is the biggest game of the week and perhaps the biggest of the Buckeyes’ season: A trip to Penn State. OSU is 3.5-point chalk.
- Georgia (4-0, 2-2 ATS, last week: 3)
In a strange game that featured a defensive touchdown (after a questionable no-call), an apparently made field goal called no good and a special-teams touchdown — all in Georgia’s favor — as well as a questionable call that led to a touchdown and a blocked field goal late — both against Georgia — the Bulldogs ended up winning 43-29 against Missouri in a game in which they were favored by 14.5. The Dawgs will want to clean up some sloppiness as they prepare for a couple of home games as big favorites (-31.5 against Tennessee this week) before an Oct. 13 trip to LSU.
- Clemson (4-0, 1-3 ATS, last week: 7)
We were probably punishing the Tigers too much for their 0-3 mark against the spread, especially considering one of the games in question came in the shadow of Hurricane Florence. Still, it was nice to see Clemson come out and dominate Georgia Tech like they should have been doing to other opponents. Now, true freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes over on a more permanent basis as the Tigers welcome in Syracuse (+22).
- LSU (4-0, 2-2 ATS, last week: 4)
Same old, same old for Ed Orgeron and the Tigers: Win a huge game, then fail to cover a spread against a lesser opponent. That pattern is certainly OK for LSU fans and for the team’s College Football Playoff hopes, but gamblers need to be wary of this team as a big favorite. It built a 24-0 lead against Louisiana Tech but then let the Bulldogs back in the game and couldn’t make the 20.5-point spread. Up next is a visit from Ole Miss, with LSU installed as big chalk again at 13.5 points.
- Stanford (4-0, 3-1 ATS, last week: 6)
The Cardinal enjoyed one of the more miraculous victories — and even more miraculous covers — you’ll ever see last week at Oregon. The Ducks fumbled away a late carry when they could have kneeled to end the game, allowing Stanford to tie it and then win — and cover -3 — with an overtime touchdown and interception. You can’t always expect that kind of good fortune, but Stanford will hope to have luck against the Irish when it visits Notre Dame as a 4.5-point dog this week.
- Oklahoma (4-0, 1-3 ATS, last week: 5)
The most concerning performance of the week by a favorite came from Oklahoma, which needed overtime to subdue Army by a 28-21 score. By that point, the 28.5-point spread was no longer a consideration. The Sooners survived in the CFP world, but they cost bettors for the third straight week, all as big favorites. They’ll get another chance at -23.5 against Baylor.
- Penn State (4-0, 3-1 ATS, last week: 11)
Trending the other way are the Nittany Lions, whose overtime survival against Appalachian State (which is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 overall, by the way) seems like ancient history. Penn State’s latest cover was an unlikely one. The Lions, favored by 27, trailed Illinois 24-21 in the third quarter before exploding for 42 unanswered points to win 63-24. This week brings a different kind of challenge: A visit from Ohio State, which has put Penn State in the rare position of being a home underdog.
- Auburn (3-1, 2-2 ATS, last week: 9)
Things that make you go hmmm: Gus Malzahn opting for a late field goal against Arkansas to win 34-3 — when the spread was 30. It seemed harmless and meaningless to the general public, but those with their eyes on the sportsbooks knew better. The three-pointer sent Tigers backers jumping with joy to cash their tickets while Razorbacks bettors slumped in their seats. There are more chances for late hijinks with the Tigers giving 28 points to Southern Miss this week.
- Washington (3-1, 1-3 ATS, last week: 10)
No such late heroics for Washington backers, who saw the Huskies never quite reach the required 18-point lead in holding off Arizona State 27-20 last week. Washington hasn’t hit its stride offensively all season, which makes covering spreads as a top team difficult. A visit from BYU (3-1 ATS) as 17-point underdogs comes up next. - West Virginia (3-0, 3-0 ATS, last week: 13)
Looking for an under-the-radar team to bet on, or to watch for a CFP run? The Mountaineers might be your men. West Virginia has covered two of its three games by double digits, most recently with an impressive 35-6 thumping of Kansas State as 15.5-point chalk. Up next is a trip to red-hot Texas Tech, which knocked Oklahoma State out of the power rankings. West Virginia is giving up 3.5 points.
- Notre Dame (4-0, 2-2 ATS, last week: 15)
After a couple of lackluster performances in which the Fighting Irish didn’t cover (and frankly were lucky to win outright), Notre Dame was back to its big, bad self in a trip to Wake Forest. This game was never close outright, and the six-point spread was never really in doubt, either. That probably won’t be the case with a visit from rock-solid Stanford up next. The Irish are 4.5-point favorites.
- Michigan (3-1, 2-2 ATS, last week: 16)
Since its opening loss to Notre Dame, Michigan has been pulverizing lesser teams. That’s helped both teams’ resumes. Now the Wolverines go back on the road and try to keep it up at Northwestern, which is getting 13.5 points in a Big Ten Conference game. Streaky Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State are up after that, so Michigan will continue to be tested for the next month.
- Central Florida (3-0, 2-1 ATS, last week: 17)
The Knights showed very little rust in taking care of Florida Atlantic in a Friday night special last week. Now they get an extra day of rest to prepare for Pittsburgh. The number is a big 15.5, but consider that UCF has been one of the best teams to gamble on dating back to last season while Pittsburgh is 1-3 against the number this year.
- Kentucky (4-0, 2-2 ATS, last week: NR)
A warm welcome to the rankings, both this version and the AP Top 25, for the Wildcats, who stunned many by beating Mississippi State outright 28-7 last week. Kentucky’s only blemishes against the spread were close, a 35-20 victory against Central Michigan as 17.5-point favorites and a 48-10 win against Murray State as 41-point chalk. Kentucky will rarely have to worry about numbers that big for rest of the way; the Wildcats are favored by 1.5 against South Carolina this week.
- Mississippi State (3-1, 3-1 ATS, last week: 8)
The Wildcats’ loss in Lexington was especially jarring for Bulldogs backers because Mississippi State had been one of the nation’s best teams to bet on for the first three weeks. We’ll see whether the 28-7 loss as a 10-point favorite was an aberration or a sign of things to come against tough foes, because the Bulldogs’ upcoming slate is harrowing: vs. Florida, vs. Auburn, at LSU, vs. Texas A&M.
- Texas A&M (2-2, 4-0 ATS, last week: 19)
Hey, when a team goes into Tuscaloosa and emerges with a victory — even if it’s an ATS victory — you’ve got to give some credit. The Aggies have now covered against Clemson and Alabama this year, and while their fans will be frustrated with the losses, bettors are seeing this as a team to be reckoned with. A&M has also done well as a big favorite this season, which will be the case again this week in a neutral-site game against Arkansas (+20).
- Duke (4-0, 3-1 ATS, last week: NR)
Shhh. You don’t want too many people to know about what a fine team to bet on this has been.
The Blue Devils covered easily against Army, won outright as an underdog at both Northwestern and Baylor (even with a backup quarterback), and then barely failed to cover a big 44.5-point number against NC Central. Back against Power Five opponents, Duke might get back to making you money, though the Blue Devils’ status as a 5.5-point favorite against Virginia Tech might seem surprising.
- California (3-0, 1-1-1 ATS, last week: NR)
Cal’s most significant accomplishment this year was beating BYU as a 2-point underdog a couple of weeks ago. The Cougars, as you’ll read about in a minute, have been covering easily against everyone else, so Cal claims this spot with that big victory. After last week’s bye week, the entire nine-game Pac-12 slate awaits, beginning with a tough game against Oregon (-3).
- BYU (3-1, 3-1 ATS, last week: NR)
The Cougars covered as a favorite for the first time last week, beating McNeese State 30-3 as 24.5-point favorites. Their tough schedule continues with a trip to Washington (-17) and then a visit from Utah State (3-0 ATS), but don’t expect BYU to be intimidated after it went to Camp Randall Stadium and took out Wisconsin as a 23.5-point underdog a couple of weeks ago.
Also considered: Wisconsin, Miami, Oregon, Oklahoma State, Boise State, Iowa, Arizona State, Michigan State, Missouri, Texas Tech, South Carolina, Colorado, Utah, Boston College, Buffalo
