To be a favorite in college football is a fleeting thing, unless of course you reside in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, where the Crimson Tide never seem to slip.
The spreads grow so large than even mighty Alabama sometimes has trouble with them, but this past week the Tide was special in that area, too. Bama, which used a second-half safety to cover a 28.5-point spread against Missouri with a 39-10 victory, was the only team in the top seven of last week’s NCAA power rankings to cover the number.
Everywhere else, there was carnage in the NCAA Power Rankings.
The most significant result came in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, where No. 10 LSU not just beat No. 3 Georgia as a touchdown underdog — the Tigers obliterated the Bulldogs 36-16. But three other top 15 teams fell: No. 5 West Virginia (lost 30-14 as a six-point favorite at Iowa State), No. 7 Penn State (lost 21-17 as 13.5-point chalk against Michigan State) and No. 14 Washington (lost 26-23 in overtime as a two-point favorite at Oregon).
Ohio State, Notre Dame and Central Florida, meanwhile, all survived lackluster play to remain unbeaten but succumbed to the number as well.
Meanwhile, four teams remain unbeaten against the spread — something more rare than simply beating undefeated straight up: Washington State (6-0-0), Utah State (6-0-0), Florida International (5-0-0) and Appalachian State (5-0-0).
What will this week bring? All we can be certain of is that there are no safe havens in college football — unless you’re in west Alabama just off of Interstate 20 and Nick Saban is in charge.
NCAA Power Rankings
- Alabama (7-0, 4-3 ATS, last week: 1)
Last week was a heartbreaker for Tide backers, but if they stuck with Alabama, they got the shamrock on their side this week. A second-half safety — and no backdoor covers — helped Bama cover the 28.5-point number against Missouri a week after Arkansas’ last-minute touchdown helped the Razorbacks cover 34.5 against Alabama. The spreads will continue to be absurdly large for the Crimson Tide, though next week’s number against Tennessee hasn’t yet been released because of uncertainty regarding the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Related: NCAA Football Betting Guide
- Ohio State (7-0, 3-4 ATS, last week: 2)
For the second straight week at home, the Buckeyes were sluggish well into the second half — this time only leading Minnesota 20-14 entering the fourth quarter — before doing enough to secure the game. The task will be trickier this week, if only because Ohio State plays Purdue, winner of three straight, on the road. Of course, the Buckeyes have done their best work away from home, beating TCU and Penn State. Ohio State is favored by 13.5, their third-smallest margin thus far.
- Notre Dame (7-0, 4-3 ATS, last week: 4)
Speaking of doing just enough, the Fighting Irish needed a fourth-quarter touchdown to take the lead against lowly Pitt and then an interception in their own territory to seal it on the Panthers’ final drive. Notre Dame is undefeated, and its opening win against Michigan is looking better and better by the week. But from a betting perspective, you just can’t trust this team. Four times they’ve covered the spread with ease, but three other times, they haven’t even been close. The line this week against Navy hasn’t been set yet, but expect Notre Dame to be heavy favorites again, the exact situation it has struggled in.
- Clemson (6-0, 2-4 ATS, last week: 6)
The Tigers move up during their off week simply because of the carnage around them. There are still question marks galore with this team — barely beating Texas A&M and Syracuse among them — but as long as it keeps winning, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence stays healthy, the Tigers will keep their place in the top 10. This week’s game against NC State is a battle of unbeatens, but Vegas doesn’t really think it’s a *big* game: Clemson is favored by 17 points.
- Michigan (6-1, 4-3 ATS, last week: 8)
Michigan’s 38-13 beatdown of Wisconsin was one of the more impressive performances of the year by any team. The Wolverines continue to rise in the rankings, though their ceiling is limited for now because of the opening-week loss to Notre Dame. Still, Michigan’s destiny certainly is in its own hands; with games against Penn State and Ohio State still to come, winning out should mean a berth in the College Football Playoff. First up is a tough trip to rival Michigan State (+7), which just knocked off Penn State as a big underdog.
- Florida (6-1, 6-1 ATS, last week: 9)
One of the nation’s best teams to bet on thus far this season gave its backers a scare on Saturday, but the Gators eventually came through with a 37-27 win against Vanderbilt to just barely cover the 9.5-point spread. Florida’s only blemish, either straight up or against the spread, is the Week 2 loss to Kentucky. After a bye week, Florida faces Georgia in what might be the national game of the week Oct. 27.
- LSU (6-1, 4-3 ATS, last week: 10)
The Tigers notched the biggest win of the week, taking out Georgia 36-16 at home and launching themselves back into the national championship picture. The biggest game of the regular season also looms in three weeks, on Nov. 3: Alabama at LSU, under the lights in Tiger Stadium. But LSU needs to be wary of this week’s opponent, Mississippi State, which is certainly good enough to ruin the party as a 6.5-point underdog.
- Georgia (6-1, 3-4 ATS, last week: 3)
Meanwhile, Georgia put some serious brakes on talk of two undefeated SEC teams meeting in the conference’s championship game and on the conference placing two teams in the College Football Playoff again. Those possibilities are still out there for the Bulldogs, but it got a lot more difficult with the loss at LSU. After a bye week, Georgia has crucial games against Florida and Kentucky that will decide the SEC Eastern Division.
- Central Florida (6-0, 4-2 ATS, last week: 11)
For the first time in a month, the Knights weren’t able to cover the spread, but they notched perhaps their most important victory of the season when they rallied to win at Memphis 31-30. Central Florida has shown a propensity to roll up big scores — and make their backers very happy — when they play overmatched teams, and that’s just what’s coming up with a game against East Carolina (+21), followed by consecutive home games against Temple, Navy and also unbeaten (for now) Cincinnati.
- West Virginia (6-1, 5-2 ATS, last week: 5)
What was already a topsy-turvy Saturday in college football truly became a season-changer when West Virginia lost 30-14 at Iowa State in the primetime window as a four-point favorite. The Mountaineers dropped their first game before they got to the teeth of the schedule, with games coming up against Texas, TCU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Still, this has been a powerful team thus far and is a good bet to right the ship a week from Thursday against Baylor.
- Texas A&M (5-2, 6-1 ATS, last week: 15)
Depending on what number you took the Aggies at — some books were A&M -2.5, some were -3 — you either were very happy or very indifferent when they beat South Carolina 26-23. We’ll call it 2.5 and say the Aggies are a robust 6-1 against the spread this year. They’re also 5-2 overall, with losses only to CFP hopefuls Alabama and Clemson. Could the Aggies make a run at the CFP themselves? If they can run the table after this week’s bye (road games at Mississippi State and Auburn followed by home games against Ole Miss, UAB and LSU), 10-2 with losses only to those teams would at least be worthy of some fringe consideration.
- Texas (6-1, 3-4 ATS, last week: 13)
Another team working its way toward the CFP conversation is Texas. The Longhorns lost starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger and the battle against the spread this week in a 23-17 win against Baylor (+14), but they remained unbeaten and avoided too big of a letdown after their seminal 48-45 victory against Oklahoma in Dallas. Now the Longhorns get a week’s break before a season-defining four-week stretch starting Oct. 27: at Oklahoma State, vs. West Virginia, at Texas Tech, vs. Iowa State.
- Oklahoma (5-1, 2-4 ATS, last week: 14)
Unlike most Big 12 teams, the Sooners took their bye week last week instead of this coming Saturday. That gave them two weeks to lick their wounds from the Texas loss and two weeks to prepare for a road trip to TCU (+7.5). Oklahoma and Texas are both hurt by the Longhorns’ opening loss to Maryland, a blemish that won’t be ignored if it comes time to compare one- or two-loss teams in the CFP committee war room. First, of course, the Sooners have to remain a one-loss team.
- Kentucky (5-1, 3-3 ATS, last week: 16)
It’s kind of hard to figure how a team that has exceeded expectations by so much is only 3-3 against the spread, but the Wildcats were unconvincing the couple of times they’ve been big favorites and then were victims of a bad beat against Texas A&M a couple of weeks ago (a six-point loss in overtime as five-point underdogs). Going forward, the spread will be a little more steep for Kentucky backers, starting this week at home against Vanderbilt. The Wildcats are 11-point chalk before two big games at Missouri and home against Georgia in the following two weeks.
- Penn State (4-2, 4-2 ATS, last week: 7)
The Nittany Lions had built some real momentum after the season-opening scare against Appalachian State, and even the loss to Ohio State seemed to prove Penn State had one of the nation’s top teams. But the loss to Michigan State, as 13.5-point home chalk, is baffling. Sometimes college football is unpredictable simply because 19-to-21-year-olds are unpredictable, and Penn State didn’t have it at home against a team it should have beaten. In any event, the Lions will be an interesting team to follow with their Big Ten title and CFP hopes all but dashed. We’ll first see how they respond in a trip to Indiana as 14-point favorites.
- Mississippi State (4-2, 4-2 ATS, last week: 17)
The Bulldogs’ signature victory against Auburn lost some of its shine when Tennessee came to Auburn and beat the Tigers, too, so this ranking is tenuous. There’s a big opportunity to improve it again, however, when Mississippi State travels to Baton Rouge to take on LSU as 6.5-point underdogs. After going 3-2 straight up as a favorite in the season’s first five weeks, State will play its second straight game as a dog, hoping the second goes as well as the first. Texas A&M and Alabama also loom in the next four weeks.
- Michigan State (4-2, 2-4 ATS, last week: NR)
What to do with this team? A survival against Utah State (which is pretty good in its own right, as you’ll soon read) and a flop at Arizona State, then a solid performance at Indiana, followed by another flop at Northwestern — and then out of nowhere, a big-time road win at Penn State. For the second straight year, Michigan State has ruined the Nittany Lions’ season. Now to see if they can follow it up as a home underdog (+7) against Michigan and ruin a rival’s season, too.
- Appalachian State (4-1, 5-0 ATS, last week: 20)
In a rare Tuesday spot, the Mountaineers exhibited no letdown, crushing a fellow Sun Belt contender in Arkansas State 35-9 and easily covering the 10.5-point spread in the process. That’s the fifth straight cover for App State, and the spreads are rising accordingly. This week the test will be a visit from historically solid Louisiana-Lafayette. For gamblers, the test is answering whether the Mountaineers can cover 24.5.
- Oregon (5-1, 2-4 ATS, last week: NR)
For a supposedly weak power conference, the Pac-12 seems to produce another challenge for the Ducks every week. In the past month, they’ve survived a heartbreaking loss to Stanford and an exhilarating win against Washington, both at home. Now they hit the road for a trip to Washington State, which will welcome ESPN’s College Gameday for the first time (and is also unbeaten against the spread). Oregon is actually a 1.5-point underdog in this matchup; we’ll see how the Ducks fare in a big game on the road.
- Utah State (5-1, 6-0 ATS, last week: NR)
Welcome to the rankings the covering machines from Ogden, Utah. The Aggies, whose explosive offense is led by play-making dual-threat quarterback Jordan Love, have scored more than 30 points in every game, including a season-opening 38-31 loss at Michigan State. Since, then, they’ve scored more than 40 points in every game, including 60 against New Mexico State, 73 against Tennessee Tech and 59 last week against UNLV. A tough task this week — a trip to the high altitude of Wyoming — sees Utah State giving only 15.5 points. Can the Aggies make it seven straight covers?
Also considered (alphabetical order): Arizona State, Auburn, Cincinnati, Fresno State, Iowa, Iowa State, NC State, Stanford, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Washington State, Wisconsin
