While Purdue stole most college football headlines in Week 8 with its shocking 49-20 rout of No. 2 Ohio State — the Boilermakers made a pretty penny for those with the foresight to bet them on the money line at +425 — there were several other significant gambling results in the college football world this past Saturday. All those results will be reflected in this week’s NCAA Power Rankings.
For starters, Utah State, Florida International and Appalachian State, while they all won straight up, all failed to cover the spread for the first time this season. That leaves Washington State, a 34-20 winner against Oregon as a 3.5-point favorite, as the only team that’s been perfect against the spread.
The Cougars are 6-1 straight up, with the three-point loss at USC (as a 4.5-point dog).
Elsewhere, Cincinnati and North Carolina State both lost for the first time straight up, proving the oddsmakers — who had them both slated as underdogs — right yet again. The number of unbeaten teams dropped to five: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Central Florida and South Florida. The Bulls are the only team you won’t see in these power rankings; USF’s strength of schedule is weak, and it’s only 2-5 against the spread.
NCAA Power Rankings
- Alabama (8-0, 5-3 ATS, last week: 1)
There’s just no stopping the Crimson Tide machine this year. When Alabama doesn’t cover, it’s because the coaching staff decides it doesn’t need any more points. That doesn’t help you as a gambler, of course — betting on the Tide’s big spreads is basically trying to read the mind of Nick Saban, and who can reliably do that? Alabama might finally be in for a close game (at least for part of the way) after its bye week when it travels to Baton Rouge to take on LSU in Death Valley. Still, early lines have Alabama listed at -15 or more.
- Notre Dame (7-0, 4-3 ATS, last week: 3)
The Irish especially enjoyed their week off thanks to Ohio State’s loss, generally moving Notre Dame up a spot in every set of rankings across the country, including this one. By Fighting Irish standards, this year’s schedule is pillow-soft, but the win against Michigan to open the season will continue to pay dividends as the Wolverines keep winning, too. That means it’ll likely be enough for Notre Dame to simply win the rest of its games to make the College Football Playoff, style points or not. Betting on this team, however, is a problem because of its lack of consistency.
Related: College Football Betting Guide | This Week’s Odds
- Clemson (7-0, 3-4 ATS, last week: 4)
You could also paint the Tigers as an inconsistent team, but following its scare against Syracuse three weeks ago, Clemson has looked utterly dominant in games against Wake Forest and North Carolina State. Also as with Notre Dame, there doesn’t seem to be another team on Clemson’s schedule that can challenge the Tigers. This week’s game is a bit tricky, however: A road trip to Tallahassee, to face Florida State. (The improving Seminoles, by the way, also play Notre Dame, so they could be one of the most influential teams in the remainder of the college football season).
- Michigan (7-1, 5-3 ATS, last week: 5)
Another week, another dominant win for the Wolverines, who had to wait out a pregame kerfuffle, lightning delay and a stubborn Michigan State defense but eventually suffocated the host Spartans in a 21-7 victory. Now Michigan gets a week to rest before a four-game closing stretch that begins with a home game against Penn State and ends with a trip to Columbus to face Ohio State, with a Big Ten championship spot and potentially a CFP spot on the line.
- Florida (6-1, 6-1 ATS, last week: 6)
The Gators seem to be getting ignored a bit in the major rankings, but here’s a team that has one of the best wins in the country (vs. LSU) and whose only loss came to another top-15 team in Kentucky. Florida also beat Mississippi State and has completely exceeded expectations along the way, covering the spread in all six of its victories. The task gets immediately tougher, however, as Florida is a seven-point underdog against Georgia this week and then has tricky games remaining against Missouri, South Carolina and Florida State to come. But this week is the big one.
- LSU (7-1, 5-3 ATS, last week: 7)
By resume alone, LSU probably deserves to be No. 1. No team has the collection of quality victories that the Tigers do (vs. Miami at a neutral site, at Auburn, Georgia, Mississippi State), with only a road loss at another top-10 team in Florida. But from a betting perspective, the Tigers still have some question marks. Can an elite defense really carry LSU all the way through the season? We’re about to find out in a big way, with No. 1 Alabama coming to town in two weeks (after a bye this weekend).
- Georgia (6-1, 3-4 ATS, last week: 8)
A victory against Florida (Georgia is -7) in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party would put the Bulldogs back in control of the SEC East (Kentucky is also a factor, though the Wildcats are underdogs this weekend at Missouri), and right back in the national championship picture. Remember, if Georgia wins the East, it still likely gets a shot at Alabama (or a second try at LSU, much like it got against Auburn last year) with a chance to make a CFP-type statement.
- Ohio State (7-1, 3-5 ATS, last week: 2)
The Buckeyes are a fine example of why it’s wise not to trust teams that are continually skating by in games in which they’re a big favorite. Eventually, you’ll run into a team that’s playing well, catches a few breaks and doesn’t let you perform your usual escape act. That was Purdue on Saturday night, and the Boilermakers put a 49-20 hurting on Ohio State, which came in as 13-point chalk. All is not lost for the Buckeyes, who have a bye week and then a manageable three-game stretch before the enormous game with Michigan at the Horseshoe on Nov. 24.
- Central Florida (7-0, 5-2 ATS, last week: 9)
The Knights just keep on winning, and they got back to covering with a strong second half in a 37-10 rout of East Carolina. After a bye week, UCF picks it back up with a Thursday night game on Nov. 1 against Temple — which just knocked off another unbeaten team in Cincinnati. But really, UCF is in good shape for another unbeaten season, with three home games before a season finale at — another undefeated team — rival South Florida.
- West Virginia (6-1, 5-2 ATS, last week: 10)
The Mountaineers were just starting to appear on many folks’ radar when they went to Ames and were hammered by Iowa State a couple of weeks ago. Now they’re back off the radar, but still, West Virginia remains a big player in the national picture. They have all of their big games in front of them: After a home game Thursday with Baylor (West Virginia -14), November brings showdowns with Texas, TCU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.
- Texas A&M (5-2, 6-1 ATS, last week: 11)
Speaking of teams off the radar, Texas A&M remains there, with losses only to Alabama and (close) to Clemson. The Aggies have a couple more chances to make splashes, particularly with a season-ending home game against LSU. It’s hard to see this team getting back in the national-title story unless some SEC West craziness lets them back in that race, but A&M is well on the way toward making Jimbo Fisher’s debut season a successful one. But before we proclaim that, let’s see how the Aggies handle back-to-back road trips to Starkville and Auburn, with Mississippi State a 2.5-point favorite this weekend.
- Texas (6-1, 3-4 ATS, last week: 12)
Most of the Big 12 (six of 10 teams) took the weekend off this past Saturday, including the Longhorns. Texas is being touted as a top-10 or higher team by most of the traditional polls, but outside of its huge win against Oklahoma, this team hasn’t done much to justify that (a rout of USC is nice, but the Trojans are down, and that’s counteracted by a horrible loss to Maryland). The Longhorns would go a long way toward proving that high ranking correct in the next three weeks, when they play at Oklahoma State (+3), home vs. West Virginia and at Texas Tech.
- Oklahoma (6-1, 3-4 ATS, last week: 13)
Meanwhile, the Sooners still seem more likely to get back in the Big 12 title and CFP picture than Texas, based on how the teams have performed thus far this season. Oklahoma was very impressive in walloping TCU 52-27 last week, and now the Sooners have just two road games left. Those are toughies, at Texas Tech and West Virginia, however. First comes a visit from Kansas State, with OU sitting as 23.5-point chalk.
- Kentucky (6-1, 3-4 ATS, last week: 14)
It continues to astound how a team can exceed expectations in general as much as the Wildcats and yet have lost money for a bettor who backed them in every game. Those trends can’t both continue to last, however, as Kentucky will be a sizable underdog in each of its next two games. The Wildcats are +7 at Missouri and will surely be a dog against Georgia next week, too.
- Penn State (5-2, 4-3 ATS, last week: 15)
The Nittany Lions survived a tricky trip to Indiana to bounce back from a disappointing home loss to Michigan State. Penn State is probably out of the Big Ten and CFP races, but this is a very talented team that could still greatly affect the national picture. The Nittany Lions, who would be favored at a neutral site against most of the teams around them on this list (with Oklahoma being possibly the only exception), play Iowa (+5.5) and Michigan in the next two weeks.
- Washington State (6-1, 7-0 ATS, last week: NR)
The win of the week, non-Purdue division, came in Pullman in front of Washington State’s first College Gameday audience. Wazzu played up for the occasion, beating Oregon 34-20 and proving the sharp money right — the line moved from Oregon -1 early in the week to Washington State -3 by kickoff. The tricky part after an emotional win like that, of course, is keeping up your level of play. Wazzu has done that admirably this year, and that’s why it is undefeated against the spread. The next challenge is at Stanford, which is a 3.5-point favorite.
- Appalachian State (5-1, 5-1 ATS, last week: 18)
The Mountaineers fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, ATS division, when they beat Louisiana-Lafayette 27-17 as 25-point favorites. Still, this team continues to prove itself, as it has since losing in overtime at Penn State in Week 1. It’s possible this team could challenge UCF, Fresno State, Utah State and others for the Group of Five CFP spot, but it’ll have to keep winning in style to have an argument. Up next is a trip to Georgia Southern, with App State as an eight-point favorite.
- Iowa (6-1, 6-1 ATS, last week: NR)
Welcome to the rankings to the Hawkeyes, who have continually gotten the job done for themselves and for bettors this year. Iowa has a win against Iowa State early in the season that’s proven to be a quality victory, and the Hawkeyes simply have taken care of business against everyone else save Wisconsin, which came to Iowa City and won 28-17. Now comes the real prove-it part of Iowa’s schedule: at Penn State (-5.5) and giant-killer Purdue over the next two weeks.
- Michigan State (4-3, 2-5 ATS, last week: 17)
It’s tough to punish the Spartans too much for losing at home to Michigan, but this is starting to be a troubling trend. Outside of an out-of-nowhere victory at Penn State and a survival at home against Utah State, the Spartans don’t have many good performances. Of course, they can change the narrative completely with home games still to come against Purdue this weekend and Ohio State in November.
- Utah State (6-1, 6-1 ATS, last week: 20)
Another one bites the dust, with Utah State also losing its first game against the spread this season. Still, there’s nothing to be ashamed of with a win at the high altitude of Wyoming, even if it was a grinder. The Aggies should be big favorites the rest of the way until a season-defining road trip to Boise State to end their regular season Nov. 24. This week, Utah State is 21.5-point chalk against New Mexico.
Also considered (alphabetical order): Auburn, Cincinnati, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Missouri, NC State, Oregon, Purdue, South Florida, Stanford, Texas Tech, UAB, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin
