The college football season has a lot of dramatic division races in store for fans and analysts, but the Pac-12 South simply isn’t one of them. UCLA, Utah, Colorado, Arizona State, Arizona – they all have huge issues to address. Some of those teams were terrible last year and have to make a large jump in one season to be able to contend for a division title. Other teams in that five-team group did really well last season and have to be just as good if not better in order to contend for the division title. Then there’s USC, which has preseason Heisman Trophy favorite Sam Darnold at quarterback, great skill-position talent, and a solid defense. It will be hard for a challenger to play consistently well enough to overcome USC. The main hope of teams in the division is that USC will struggle, losing three conference games in the Pac-12 and leaving the door open for another team to win the division with a 6-3 conference record and a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Trojans. That possibility is remote.
Odds:
Arizona +5000
Arizona State +5000
UCLA +1200
Colorado +650
Utah +500
Southern California -650
Team On The Rise:
The Arizona Wildcats are not a division contender, but they could not have been much worse last year when they fell to a 3-9 record. Arizona was torn apart by injuries, but the Wildcats could have gone 5-7 with their injury luck. Instead, they were two games worse. Their depth suffered, and so while they lack 10-win talent this season, relative health could give them the chance to win seven or even eight games. That shows why this team is primed to improve – everything went wrong in 2016. Quarterback Brandon Dawkins – himself hit by the injury bug last season – is a highly athletic and gifted player who could light a fire under the rest of the offense. This is a team which has a chance to make big strides – just not enough to win the division.
Team In Decline:
The Colorado Buffaloes are the best candidate here if only because they set such a high standard last year. Colorado won 10 games and claimed its first Pac-12 South championship. It will be extremely difficult for CU to win 10 games again, and it will be even harder to repeat as division champions. The Buffaloes lost star defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt. They won’t have as much depth at quarterback as they did last year, when they were able to rotate two players in and out of the on-field lineup. Pac-12 opponents will be gunning for the Buffaloes. They won’t sneak up on the competition as they did last year. It’s almost a certainty this team will regress.
Hot Seat:
This is a pick-your-option situation. Any of three candidates are perfectly good answers here. Jim Mora of UCLA, Todd Graham of Arizona State, and Rich Rodriguez of Arizona are all on the hot seat. Mora could be on the hottest seat because Los Angeles sports fans are notoriously impatient and do not buy tickets for losers. Graham could be on the hot seat because his athletic director has talked about the need for high standards with the Sun Devils. Rodriguez could be on the hottest seat because his team was 3-9 last year. He can’t have another similarly bad season. He needs at least six wins.
Outlook
The Trojans are the team to beat in the Pac-12 South. And it really helps that they don’t have a ton of competition. Of course, Colorado was a surprise team last year but the expectations for them are not as high. They’re at +650. Utah is second in line at +500 but their expectations are low this year.
The good news for USC is that they’ll get to play Stanford at home as well as Utah and UCLA. They do have to go on the road to Washington State and to Colorado, but they’ll be built for wins in both places. It’s a lot of juice to lay here with this bet but it’s hard to see any other outcome.
Prediction: USC to win the Pac-12 South
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