The college football futures were shaken up this week when the No. 1 Mississippi State Bulldogs lost in Alabama. Now the Tide are the clear-cut top dogs. As the season heads down the home stretch, here’s a look at the updated futures power ranking:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
This week: 5/1
Last week: 4/1
The Crimson Tide just defeated Mississippi State to become the team from the SEC which controls its fate more than any other. If Alabama wins the remainder of its games, it will win the SEC West division, the SEC championship and it will make the College Football Playoff. Teams will not want to face the Tide’s nasty defense, which has allowed an average of only 14.5 points this season, good for second in the nation. Only Ole Miss’ defense has done better. Alabama gets Auburn at home in a week and a half and playing that game at home should be a huge help to the Crimson Tide, who struggled on the road at Auburn a season ago. The key will be the ability of Alabama to convert third downs and to improve its odds on third down by not getting into overly long yardage situations.
2. Oregon Ducks
This week: 15/4
Last week: 4/1
The Ducks are in a very favorable situation because they play Colorado and Oregon State the next two weeks. Oregon should be able to handle those teams very easily and move to the Pac-12 Championship Game with a chance to play its way into the College Football Playoff. The Ducks might not match up that well against other national teams, but championship odds right now are in large part a product of the ability to simply get to the four-team playoff. The rest will be a different discussion, but if Oregon is one of the top two teams at the end of the season, it will play in the Rose Bowl with a favorable geographical setup against the third or fourth seed in the playoff. That’s another reason the Ducks are enjoying strong odds at this point.
Tie, 3. Florida State Seminoles
This week: 6/1
Last week: 6/1
The Seminoles are unbeaten and that’s the main thing to keep in mind about them. They don’t look good. They continue to stumble in the first half of almost every game they play, falling behind by at least 15 or more points every third game this season. However, so far, they’ve been able dig out of it. Jameis Winston has had an inconsistent season in 2014, but when he has to make plays, he does.
Florida State’s remaining schedule should be easy: Boston College and Florida are at home. Duke in the ACC Championship Game would not be hard. Only if Georgia Tech, with its triple-option offense, might cause problems for Florida State over the remainder of the regular season.
Tie, 3. Ohio State Buckeyes
This week: 6/1
Last week: 8/1
The Buckeyes are steaming toward the Big Ten championship and they should not be seriously threatened before that game on Dec. 6 in Indianapolis, which will most likely be against the Wisconsin Badgers and Heisman Trophy candidate Melvin Gordon. Ohio State will still be favored for that matchup, though, because of the emergence of quarterback J.T. Barrett, who has been absolutely outstanding in taking over for the injured Braxton Miller. As long as Barrett plays at a high level, it will be hard for anyone in the Big Ten to touch Ohio State and that should probably get the Buckeyes into the College Football Playoff, though they’re not guaranteed a spot at all if other results aren’t kind to them.
5. TCU Horned Frogs
This week: 7/1
Last week: 6/1
The Horned Frogs barely got by Kansas, which is better than losing, but is still a little bit of a negative for TCU given that everyone was paying attention – including the 12 people who will select the College Football Playoff’s quartet of teams. TCU might have lost a crucial amount of ground to Baylor in the race between the Big 12’s two best teams, the ones most centrally competing for a possible spot in the playoff. TCU is now running out of chances to change the argument against Baylor. It will have to play extremely well from here on out just to have a chance.
Tie, 6. Mississippi State Bulldogs
This week: 17/2
Last week: 15/2
The Bulldogs are coming off a loss to Alabama and they know that their odds just got a lot smaller, but they also know that they’re still in the hunt. They’ll have improved chances as long as they can get a favorable result here and there, the most helpful one being Auburn over Alabama on Nov. 29 – if it happens. Mississippi State also knows that it must beat Ole Miss in a week and a half in order to make its way into the field. There’s no way MSU could make it with a loss to the Rebels.
Tie, 6. Baylor Bears
This week: 17/2
Last week: 16/1
The Bears gained ground on TCU, so why are they behind the Horned Frogs in the odds race? TCU has Texas in a little over a week while Baylor has to play Kansas State later in the season. That’s seen as a tougher game for the Bears than what Texas is for TCU. However, the difference is minimal. Baylor, should it win out, will have the head-to-head tiebreaker over TCU for the Big 12 championship, and conference champions will be recognized by the committee as just one factor among many.
8. Georgia Bulldogs
This week: 25/1
Last week: 33/1
The Bulldogs stayed on the outside edge of the playoff discussion by beating Auburn handily. Georgia has to win out and then hope for a lot of good results in other games across the country. They’re not going anywhere with two losses unless they receive help elsewhere.
9. Ole Miss Rebels
This week: 28/1
Last week: 25/1
The Rebels need Alabama to lose to Auburn, which is possible, and then they would also have to beat Mississippi State on Nov. 29 to have a chance. First, though, Ole Miss has to deal with a very tough situation in Arkansas where the Razorbacks are coming off their first SEC win and will be highly confident about their chances of winning another league game.
10. UCLA Bruins
This week: 50/1
Last week: 100/1
The Bruins have an outsider’s chance among outsider’s chances. They need several pieces to fall in place just to be considered for the playoff. Winning out is just the start for UCLA but realistically, this team is cooked in terms of the playoffs.
