The college football season is almost done with September, if you can believe it. Time is going by quickly, and the odds for various teams are beginning to shift at the top of the list.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
This week: 13/2 odds to win the national championship
Last week: 7/1
The Crimson Tide have a few very big problems to deal with, even though they were the much better team than Florida in this past weekend’s game. Alabama remained unbeaten, but coach Nick Saban simply cannot be happy with multiple turnovers and several busts in his secondary. Alabama has a lot of holes to plug up, and a lot of players who aren’t giving maximum concentration on each and every play. In football, just one split-second mistake can mean an 80-yard touchdown pass for the other team, and one lazy carry with the football can turn into a scoop-and-score fumble return going the other way. Alabama can fix these problems. That’s the good news. The bad news is that if Alabama doesn’t fix these problems, it will lose at least two games this season, maybe more.
2a. Auburn Tigers
This week: 15/2
Last week: 9/1
The Tigers did not look good on offense this past Thursday against Kansas State, but they looked great on defense, and when they got breaks on defense, they made the most of them. Auburn was fortunate that Kansas State dropped a touchdown pass in the end zone and missed three field goals as well, but the Tigers’ defense made so many big plays on Thursday. Kansas State wouldn’t have been in a position to miss three field goals if Auburn’s defense hadn’t come up with a stand in the first place. Auburn’s defense, if it can continue to play like that for the rest of the season, will make the Tigers extremely tough.
2b. Florida State Seminoles
This week: 15/2
Last week: 5/1
The Seminoles played without Jameis Winston last Saturday night, but they displayed other weaknesses as well. Their offensive line was shaky against Clemson’s quality defensive front. Florida State’s safeties bit on various fakes and actions from Clemson, getting burned on multiple plays. The Seminoles were on the brink of defeat a few different times, and they looked more vulnerable than they had at any prior point over the past 13 months, since Winston began playing for the team. However, Florida State managed to play through all of those problems and win. The Seminoles are now going to play with even more confidence, and they’re going to trust each other a lot more than they did going into the Clemson game. This game, once Winston was suspended, did not have to be the kind of game Florida State needed to win by 30 points in order to impress the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. The Seminoles just had to get the job done in the end, and that’s what they succeeded in doing.
2c. Oklahoma Sooners
This week: 15/2
Last week: 15/2
The Sooners have to feel a lot better about themselves after surviving their first true road trip of the season on Saturday night against West Virginia. Oklahoma played a road game at Tulsa in week two, but the game at West Virginia was the Sooners’ first game outside their home state in the new season. The Sooners trailed the Mountaineers, 24-17, late in the first half, but a long kickoff return for a touchdown provided the perfect pick-me-up for a group whose defense had been struggling. West Virginia quarterback Clint Trickett was getting rid of the ball quickly and blunting the Oklahoma pass rush, so the Sooners needed to adjust. They got a faster pass rush in the second half and didn’t give up the short passes Trickett had used to perfection in the first half. The ability to respond to a difficult opponent on the road should stabilize Oklahoma in the coming weeks.
5. Oregon Ducks
This week: 9/1
Last week: 7/1
The Ducks barely survived Washington State this past weekend on the road. Oregon did not play as aggressively as it hoped to, but one thing a lot of people have to recognize with respect to the Ducks’ situation is that their offensive line has been decimated by injuries just a few weeks into the season. Head coach Mark Helfrich has already had to go a few lines down on his depth chart to find bodies that are capable of playing in front of quarterback Marcus Mariota. It’s true that Mariota has been absolutely outstanding this season, marking himself as a clear Heisman Trophy candidate. Yet, if Oregon continues to block poorly for Mariota, the Ducks’ luck is likely to run out, and the team won’t stay unbeaten for very long.
6. Texas A&M Aggies
This week: 12/1
Last week: 14/1
The Aggies rolled past a terrible SMU team, proving very little about themselves. The tests begin to come left and right at A&M, however, beginning with this weekend’s game against an Arkansas team that might be good enough to make a bowl game this season. The Hogs were certainly good enough to crush Texas Tech on the road. A&M has to be able to not collapse on defense. Merely being average, not lousy, on defense will give A&M’s offense a chance to win each and every game the team plays.
7. Georgia Bulldogs
This week: 16/1
Last week: 20/1
The Bulldogs beat Troy in an easy non-conference game. The Bulldogs really haven’t changed much since their loss to South Carolina. The month of October will show how ready this team is to compete for a spot in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia will hope that Missouri can beat South Carolina this weekend, since Georgia has lost to South Carolina but not yet played Missouri in the SEC East race.
8. Baylor Bears
This week: 18/1
Last week: 18/1
The Bears are in hibernation, waiting for their Big 12 schedule to get going. Head coach Art Briles should think that his team is ready to defend its conference title from last season, but until the Bears are tested in their conference, it’s going to be hard to know the answer to that question.
8. UCLA Bruins
This week: 18/1
Last week: 16/1
The Bruins are getting ready for Thursday night’s big game against Arizona State, a key test to see which team will advance in the race for the Pac-12 South Division championship. UCLA starting quarterback Brett Hundley will probably play, but his recent elbow injury has prevented him from being named the official starter by head coach Jim Mora, Jr. Hundley, though, is certainly in better shape than ASU starting quarterback Taylor Kelly, who has been officially ruled out of Thursday’s game. An injured Hundley against an Arizona State backup is the matchup the Bruins want. The main thing for UCLA is to not make unwise decisions on defense, gambling on interception attempts and instead allowing the Sun Devils to make 50 yards on single plays.
10. Michigan State 20/1
10. Ohio State 20/1
12. Notre Dame 25/1
12. USC 25/1
14. Mississippi 33/1
15. Mississippi State 40/1
15. South Carolina 40/1
15. Nebraska 40/1
15. Stanford 40/1
15. Wisconsin 40/1
