The college football season just saw its craziest weekend, one of the wildest in recent memory. One by one by one, teams ranked in the top 25 of the Associated Press poll went down. The odds have changed.
1. Florida State Seminoles
This week: 11/2
Last week: 15/2
The Seminoles were sluggish, but they still beat Wake Forest without too much of a problem because Wake Forest just isn’t very good on offense. The Demon Deacons’ defense held Florida State’s offense under 14 points in the first half, but after halftime, Florida State’s offense got going and was able to pull away. The fact that Wake Forest couldn’t sustain any drives on offense enabled Florida State’s offense to take the field in the third quarter under very advantageous circumstances. The Seminoles didn’t have to sweat this one out in the fourth quarter, but that doesn’t mean they’ve figured everything out. This defensive line has a lot of injuries to deal with. Things could get tougher before they get easier for Florida State.
2. Auburn Tigers
This week: 13/2
Last week: 8/1
The Tigers have moved up largely because a lot of other teams have moved down following losses. Auburn is playing well, but the Tigers now have a big test coming up against Mississippi State, a team that is not in the top 10 of these odds only because the public doesn’t generally get exposed to the Bulldogs on a regular basis each year. Mississippi State is not a familiar name, but the Bulldogs have looked really good the past two weeks against LSU and Texas A&M. Auburn has to withstand this big challenge on the road. If it can get by that one, then the path to a national championship will look a lot clearer. If Auburn fails, it is still in the hunt for an SEC title, but it will have a much smaller amount of leeway. This is a gigantic moment for the program, trying to win back-to-back SEC championships.
Tie, 3. Georgia Bulldogs
This week: 8/1
Last week: 14/1
The Bulldogs really aren’t playing like a team that should be in the top four of the national championship odds, but they are still alive in the chase. They have a monster game at Missouri this Saturday, one that should probably decide the SEC East title. If Georgia can win that, it would be able to have a clear route to the SEC Championship Game, win the SEC title, and maybe sneak into the playoff even if it has two losses by the end of the regular season. Georgia, though, will have to play Auburn later in the season, and that’s a game the Bulldogs don’t figure to win. This team is already living on the edge, and it knows it.
Tie, 3. Michigan State Spartans
This week: 8/1
Last week: 14/1
Michigan State got a big win over Nebraska this past weekend. The Spartans are one of the two best teams in the Big Ten, and everyone is just waiting for the team’s huge game at home against Ohio State down the line. Michigan State needs to remain patient, take care of business, and then play the way it is capable against Ohio State. If the Spartans avoid the lapses and weird quarters in which good play is abruptly replaced by sleepwalking, they are a national championship-caliber team. Coach Mark Dantonio has to get his players’ attention, but if he does, this team has everything to play for in 2014.
Tie, 5. Alabama Crimson Tide
This week: 10/1
Last week: 6/1
The Crimson Tide are still highly regarded by the public, because of their reputation and their three national championships in a four-season span from 2009 through 2012. Head coach Nick Saban still commands respect. People believe that if something goes wrong for Alabama in one game, Saban will fix it in the rest of the season. However, this Alabama team looks and feels different from past teams that have lost once and then rebounded to win national titles. Ole Miss didn’t play that great against the Tide, and Alabama couldn’t take what was a very winnable game. Turnovers, penalties, missed kicks, and dropped passes were all problems for Alabama, which has to now handle the rest of a very tough SEC West without a single slip-up the rest of the way. That’s pretty daunting, and it’s not a good bet that Alabama will run the table.
Tie, 5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
This week: 10/1
Last week: 25/1
The Fighting Irish have catapulted into the national title picture because of their win over Stanford. Notre Dame will play Florida State later in the season, and the Seminoles are really banged up on defense, as said above. Notre Dame will have a chance to play Florida State at a point in time when the Seminoles are not at full strength. If the Fighting Irish do win that game, they would be in the lead position for a playoff berth as one of the four main contenders for the trophy at the end of the season.
Tie, 7. Oklahoma Sooners
This week: 12/1
Last week: 15/2
The Sooners lost to TCU, so they know they can’t lose again. Now comes the remainder of the season and a chance to regroup from a setback that was partly caused by lapses in the secondary, partly by the poor play of its offensive line, and partly because of shaky interceptions thrown by quarterback Trevor Knight. Oklahoma has a lot of issues to address, but it has the talent to be able to overcome whatever is thrown in its direction. It will be interesting to see how this team responds.
Tie, 7. Ohio State Buckeyes
This week: 12/1
Last week: 20/1
The Buckeyes look better and better as the season goes on. Quarterback J.T. Barrett is learning how to play quarterback, and the Ohio State coaching staff is steadily bringing him along in a way that should inspire confidence among the Buckeye fan base. This is a smoother, coordinated offense that knows what it’s doing. This team now looks like the equal of Michigan State in the Big Ten, something that didn’t seem likely a few weeks ago.
9. Baylor Bears
This week: 14/1
Last week: 14/1
The Bears didn’t look good on offense against Texas, but they did win because their defense stepped up, in the kind of story that didn’t unfold much last season. Baylor has to get better in many areas, but if it can win when it’s not playing well, the team will be fine in the short term.
10. Ole Miss 16/1
11. Mississippi State 18/1
12. Oregon 22/1
13. UCLA 25/1
14. TCU 40/1
15. Arizona 50/1
