The Western Michigan Broncos are entering the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl as heavy underdogs as they prepare to take on the BYU Cougars. The afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 4:00 p.m. ET and ESPN will televise the action.
Western Michigan Broncos vs. BYU Cougars Betting Preview
Western Michigan is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 12 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, bettors would currently need to put up $500 in order to win $100 back on the Cougars (-500). The Broncos are getting +350 moneyline odds. If one program can find paydirt early on it will result in a nice live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 48.5 points.
The betting odds have swayed a bit from when they were initially set. The line opened at 12.5 and the game’s over/under was placed originally at 48.
The Broncos have lost 0.6 units so far and are 4-8 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an O/U mark of 6-4-1. The Cougars have lost 3.0 units this season. The team is 8-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-9.
The Broncos are 7-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Cougars are 6-6 SU.
The Broncos just notched a 28-21 win over Northern Illinois on November 20. The Broncos defense allowed the Huskies to rush for 106 yards on 43 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Offensively, Kaleb Eleby completed just 19 passes on 35 attempts for 285 yards. LeVante Bellamy (only 52 yards on 15 rush attempts) and Jamauri Bogan (63 yards on 14 carries, two TDs) mounted the ground attack while D’Wayne Eskridge (six receptions, 123 yards) and Jayden Reed (six catches, 85 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
BYU just dropped a 35-27 game to Utah. Zach Wilson completed 20-of-29 passes for 204 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Matt Hadley (64 yards on 21 rush attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Wilson (73 yards on 14 carries) spearheaded the running attack as Bushman (six receptions, 92 yards, one TD) and Neil Pau’u (four catches, 28 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Western Michigan has run the ball on 59.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while BYU has a rush percentage of 55.9 percent. The Broncos have produced 205 rush yards/game and have 30 scores on the ground this year. The Cougars are putting up 155 rushing yards per game and have 24 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Broncos may have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has given up only 22 sacks while their D-line logged 20 sacks. The Cougars, on the other hand, have allowed 26 sacks and their defense has forced only 17 sacks.
The Broncos offense has tallied 243 yards per contest through the air overall and has 20 passing scores so far. The Cougars have put up 200 pass yards per outing and have 14 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Western Michigan has allowed 169 rush yards and 209 pass yards per game. The BYU defense has given up 195.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 129.4 yards per game on the ground. The Cougars are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.04 to opposing QBs, while the Broncos have given up a 7.33 ANY/A.
Offensively, Eleby is up to 730 passing yards this year, and has connected on 52-of-82 attempts with three passing scores and two interceptions. He has a 6.57 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.50 over the last two outings.
We expect the Broncos to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. LeVante Bellamy (959 rush yards, five rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Jamauri Bogan (597 rush yards, 13 rush TDs) have delivered in the offensive scheme for Western Michigan.
In the other huddle, Zach Wilson has completed 90-of-138 passes for 1,089 yards, eight TDs and three INTs. Wilson’s ANY/A stands at 6.46 for the year and 5.63 across his past two games.
The Cougars also like to rely on their backfield. Along with Matt Bushman (402 receiving yards, two receiving TDs), Lopini Katoa (423 rush yards, eight rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Matt Hadley (328 rush yards, four rush TDs) have gotten plenty of touches lately.
Free Pick: Western Michigan Broncos at BYU Cougars
SU Winner – BYU, ATS Winner – BYU, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
Western Michigan has averaged 3.7 yards per rush attempt over its past three outings and 4.0 over its last two.
BYU has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.8 over its past two.
The BYU offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Western Michigan has lost 10.
The Broncos offense has created 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Cougars have put up five such plays.
The Western Michigan defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while BYU has given up three such plays.
The Western Michigan offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while BYU has created 16 such runs.
The Broncos defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Cougars have given up seven such runs.
The Western Michigan defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 28 times this season. BYU has recorded 24 sacks.
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