In a battle of two teams that like to focus on their running games, Head Coach Shawn Elliott and the Georgia State Panthers are getting 11.5 points when they take on their in-conference nemesis Georgia Southern Eagles to Parker H. Petit Field at Georgia State Stadium. ESPN+ will broadcast the action and the game is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Georgia State Panthers Betting Preview
In this Saturday Sun Belt matchup, Georgia Southern is labeled as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 11.5 points. The Eagles are also receiving -470 moneyline odds while the Panthers are +340. If one program catches a lucky break early it’ll create a nice betting scenario in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 58 points.
The surprising Eagles are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 5.3 units so far in 2018. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 6-4. The hapless Panthers have lost 5.5 units this season. The team is 2-8-1 ATS and the over’s hit in six of its games.
The Eagles are 8-3 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against conference opponents. The Panthers are 2-9 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.
The Eagles are coming off a resounding 41-17 victory over Coastal Carolina last week where Shai Werts completed four passes for just 33 yards. Wesley Fields (148 rushing yards on 20 attempts, two TDs) and Wesley Kennedy III (59 yards on eight carries) led the running attack while Kennedy III (two receptions, nine yards) and Ellis Richardson (one catch, two yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Georgia State just fell in a one-sided affair, 45-17 to Appalachian State. The defense allowed the Mountaineers to eat up the clock by rushing for 228 yards on 39 attempts, including two rush TDs. Darrynton Evans had a solid outing in the win, recording 127 rushing yards and a score on 15 attempts for Appalachian State. For Georgia State, Dan Ellington completed 10-of-21 passes for 132 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Ellington (113 rushing yards on 19 attempts) spearheaded the running game while Penny Hart (two receptions, 50 yards) and Cornelius McCoy (two catches, 45 yards) led all Georgia State pass-catchers in the loss.
Georgia Southern has run the ball on 84.6 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 82.4 percent across possessions in conference play. Georgia State has an overall rush percentage of 57.5 percent, and has carried the ball 59.8 percent of the time against SBC opponents. The Eagles have produced 259 rush yards/game (including 247 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 31 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Panthers are totaling 178 rushing yards per game (214 in conference) and have 21 total rush TDs.
If 2018 results can translate to this game, then the Eagles might hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has generated 5.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.0 to opponents. The Panthers have tallied 4.6 yards per carry and allowed 6.5 YPC to opponents.
The Eagles offensive scheme has averaged 81 yards through the air overall (81 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing scores so far. The Panthers have produced 210 pass yards per outing (208.3 in the SBC) and have 13 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Georgia Southern seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 149 yards and throw for 222 yards per game. The Georgia State defense has given up 250.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 248.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Eagles are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.33 to opponents, while the Panthers have allowed a staggering 9.57 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Werts is up to 659 yards on the year, and has connected on 57 percent of his 75 attempts with six scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He has a 7.73 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.81 over the last two games.
The Eagles have tried to control the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. Wesley Fields (791 rush yards, eight rush TDs, 96 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Monteo Garrett (449 rush yards, five rush TDs), and Logan Wright (293 rush yards, three rush TDs) have really been focal points in the offensive game scripts for Georgia Southern.
Dan Ellington has completed 154-of-259 passes for 1,949 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs for Georgia State. His ANY/A sits at 6.56 for the season and 2.95 over his past two outings.
The Panthers also prefer to leverage their backfield. In addition to Dan Ellington (zero receiving yards), Tra Barnett (469 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Cornelius McCoy (361 receiving yards and one TD) have seen a lot of touches recently.
When these two squads faced one another last year, Georgia State emerged victorious by a score of 21-17.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Prediction: Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Georgia State Panthers
SU Winner – Georgia Southern, ATS Winner – Georgia Southern, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The O/U for Georgia Southern’s last game was set at 53.5. The over cashed in the team’s 41-17 victory over Coastal Carolina.
Georgia Southern has rushed for 4.8 yards per attempt over its past three games and 5.8 over its last two.
Georgia State has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.8 over its past two.
Georgia State has lost 12 fumbles this season while Georgia Southern has lost five.
Over its last three matches, Georgia Southern is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for Georgia State’s last outing was set at 55. The over cashed in that 45-17 loss to Appalachian State.
In its last three matchups, Georgia State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Georgia State has dropped 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a 32-point victory over Louisiana-Monroe on September 29th accounting for the one win over that stretch.
The Eagles offense has registered seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Panthers have put up nine such plays.
The Georgia Southern defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while Georgia State has given up 10 such plays.
The Georgia Southern offense has created 26 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Georgia State has created 13 such runs.
The Eagles defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Panthers have given up 30 such runs.
The Georgia Southern D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this season. Georgia State has recorded just 13 sacks.
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