The North Texas Mean Green and Utsa Roadrunners will go head-to-head on the dome of the Alamodome. ESPN+ has the TV rights and the matchup is scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. ET.
North Texas Mean Green vs. UTSA Roadrunners Betting Preview
North Texas is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 22.5 points to UTSA. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 52 points, and if one side can catch a lucky break early, it will likely result in a nice betting scenario in-game.
This game’s total has not changed after it was initially posted at 52. Having said that, the opening line was 18.5 so has recently moved up to 22.5.
The hapless Mean Green have lost 8.0 units so far in 2018 and are 4-7 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-10. The Roadrunners have lost 3.0 units this season. The team is 3-8 ATS and the over has hit in seven of its games.
The Mean Green have gone 8-3 straight up (SU), including 4-3 SU against CUSA opponents. The Roadrunners are 3-8 SU overall and 2-5 SU in conference play.
The Mean Green just pulled off a 41-38 win over Florida Atlantic last week. Mason Fine completed 22-of-33 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. DeAndre Torrey (184 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack in the win. Rico Bussey, Jr. (five receptions, 86 yards) and Michael Lawrence (five catches, 47 yards) shared the receiving duties.
One game ago, Marshall shut out this UTSA crew by a score of 23-0. The Roadrunners defense let the Thundering Herd pass for 387 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 118 yards. Tyre Brady was a force to be reckoned with, recording 162 yards on six catches for Marshall. For UTSA, Bryce Rivers completed 16-of-31 passes for 158 yards and one interception. Brenden Brady (4 rushing yards on 10 attempts) mounted the ground attack in the defeat as Greg Campbell Jr. (seven receptions, 84 yards) and Sheldon Jones (three catches, 18 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Each of these squads sports a similar (47-53) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Mean Green have run for 153 yards/game (including 146 per game against Conference USA opponents) and have 23 scores via handoffs this year. The Roadrunners haven’t been as successful. They’re logging 84 rushing yards per game (76 in conference) and have five total rush TDs.
It seems like the Mean Green ought to own an edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their backfield has produced 4.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.3 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Roadrunners have rushed for 2.8 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.0 to opponents.
The Mean Green offensive scheme has logged 316 yards per game through the air overall (299 per game versus conference opposition) and has 25 passing scores so far. The Roadrunners have produced 150 pass yards per outing (141.4 in the CUSA) and have eight total pass TDs.
Defensively, North Texas seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 112 yards and throw for 244 yards per game. The UTSA defense has allowed 271.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.0 yards per game on the ground. The Mean Green are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.76 to opponents, while the Roadrunners have given up a staggering 8.78 ANY/A.
Offensively, Fine has already amassed 3,174 passing yards this season, and has connected on 64 percent of his 377 attempts with 23 passing scores and only three interceptions. He has an 8.44 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.11 over the last two outings.
DeAndre Torrey, Rico Bussey, Jr. and Jalen Guyton have combined to account for 659 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns over the last two outings.
In the other locker room, Bryce Rivers has completed 16-of-31 passes for 158 yards, zero TDs and one INT. Rivers’ ANY/A sits at a horrendous 2.06 for the season and 3.51 over his last two games.
Greg Campbell Jr. (459 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns on the year), Marquez McNair (144 receiving yards) and Brenden Brady (90 rush yards) have combined to account for 246 total yards over the last couple of games.
These two teams met last year with the final result being a 29-26 win for North Texas.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Pick: North Texas Mean Green vs. UTSA Roadrunners
SU Winner – UTSA, ATS Winner – UTSA, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Over/Under for North Texas’ previous game was set at 62.5. The over cashed in the team’s 41-38 victory over Florida Atlantic.
North Texas has averaged 5.3 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 4.8 over its last two.
UTSA has averaged 2.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and only 1.6 over its last two.
Both teams have lost eight fumbles this year.
Over its last three contests, North Texas is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for UTSA’s last outing was 48. The under cashed in the 23-0 defeat to Marshall.
In its last three matches, UTSA is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Mean Green offense has recorded 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Roadrunners have accounted for one such play.
The North Texas defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UTSA has given up 10 such plays.
The North Texas offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while UTSA has created seven such runs.
The Mean Green defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Roadrunners have given up 13 such runs.
The North Texas defense has 30 sacks on the year while UTSA has just 22.
*****
