Two schools that like to run the football, South Alabama Jaguars (+11) are prepared to welcome their in-conference rival Troy Trojans (-11) to South Alabama. ESPN2 will televise the action and the game is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.
Troy Trojans at South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview
South Alabama is a big underdog in this SBC game and is currently getting 11 points. The Trojans are also receiving -450 moneyline odds while the Jaguars are +325. If one school gets out in front early on, it’ll likely generate a nice live betting opportunity.
The game’s line opened at 10, but the early action has leaned in favor of the Trojans.
The Trojans have gained 0.9 units so far and are 4-2-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an O/U mark of 5-2. The Jaguars have lost 1.0 unit this season. The team is 3-3-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-1.
The Trojans have gone 5-2 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against conference opponents. The Jaguars are 2-5 SU overall and 1-2 SU in conference play.
The Trojans are looking to get back on track after a 22-16 defeat to Liberty on October 13 where Sawyer Smith completed only 13-of-25 passes for 135 yards, along with one score and a pick. B.J. Smith (111 rushing yards on 20 attempts) and the signal-caller Smith (15 yards on 11 carries) led the running attack. Deondre Douglas (six receptions, 58 yards, one TD) and Damion Willis (three catches, 56 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
South Alabama enters this one after just earning a 45-7 win over Alabama State. Evan Orth completed 12-of-15 passes for 155 yards and one touchdown. Tra Minter (61 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) and Deonta Moore (65 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the running game while Jamarius Way (three receptions, 35 yards) and Kawaan Baker (two catches, 52 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Each squad sports a strikingly similar (57-43) run-pass ratio on the season. The Trojans have run for 208 yards per game (including 254 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 13 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Jags are putting up 131 rush yards per game (109 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Trojans could hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, since their running backs has logged 5.5 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.3 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Jaguars have registered 3.5 yards per carry and allowed 5.0 YPC to opponents.
The Trojans offense has tallied 206 yards per contest in the air overall (244 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Jags have recorded 212 pass yards per contest (229.3 in the SBC) and have nine total pass scores.
Troy has allowed opponents to run for an average of 133 yards and throw for 239 yards per game. The South Alabama defense has allowed 224.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 221.7 yards per game on the ground. The Trojans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.87 to opponents, while the Jags have given up a 6.88 ANY/A.
Offensively, Smith is up to 267 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has completed 57 percent of his 44 attempts with three passing scores and two interceptions. He’s got a 4.40 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 3.16 over the last two games.
Look for a balanced attack offensively from Troy in this one. B.J. Smith (444 rushing yards, six rush TDs on the year), Damion Willis (295 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and Kaleb Barker (261 rush yards, three rush TDs, 0 receiving yards) have all played key roles of late.
Evan Orth has connected on 98-of-144 passes for 1,169 yards, seven TDs and two INTs for South Alabama. His ANY/A stands at 7.87 for the year and 6.60 across his past two outings.
We expect the Jags to control tempo by feeding their ball-carriers early and often. In addition to Kawaan Baker (238 receiving yards, three receiving TDs this season), Deonta Moore (135 rush yards, 23 receiving yards) and Tra Minter (225 rush yards, four rush TDs) have been focal points in the South Alabama offense.
These two squads met last year with the final result being a 19-8 victory for South Alabama.
Betting Pick: Troy Trojans vs. South Alabama Jaguars
SU Winner – Troy, ATS Winner – Troy
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Trojans offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Jaguars have put up six such plays.
Both defenses have allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Troy defense has given up nine pass plays of 30+ yards while South Alabama has given up 14 such plays.
The Troy offense has created 18 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while South Alabama has created three such runs.
The Trojans defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Jaguars have given up 16 such runs.
The Troy defense has 22 sacks on the year while South Alabama has just 14.
Troy has averaged 7.0 yards per rush attempt across its past three contests and 6.1 over its last two.
South Alabama has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.8 over its last two.
Over its last three contests, South Alabama is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Troy’s last game was 62. The under cashed in the team’s 22-16 defeat to Liberty.
In its last three contests, Troy is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for South Alabama’s last match was set at 55.5. The under cashed in the 45-7 win over Alabama State.
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