Two schools that like to deploy their running games, Lobos of New Mexico (+20) are set to host the No. 23 Boise State Broncos (-20) at Dreamstyle Stadium. This MWC matchup kicks off at 9:00 p.m. ET and fans can watch the action on CBS Sports Network. When these two squads faced each other a year ago, Boise State won by two touchdowns 28-14.
Boise State Broncos at New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
In this Friday Mountain West game, Boise State is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 20 points. If they want to play the moneyline, bettors would currently need to lay down $1,800 in order to net $100 back on the Broncos (-1800). The Lobos are getting +900 moneyline odds. If one team gets out in front early on it will produce a nice in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 62.5 points.
This game’s O/U hasn’t changed after it was initially set at 62.5. Having said that, the opening line was 21.5 and early action has swayed toward the Lobos.
The Broncos have lost 0.6 units so far and are 5-4-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 5-4-1. The Lobos have lost 4.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-6 ATS and the over’s hit in seven of their games.
The Broncos are 8-2 straight up (SU), including 5-1 SU against conference opponents. The Lobos are 3-7 SU overall and 1-5 SU in conference play.
Boise State enters this matchup on a zero-game losing streak while New Mexico has won each of its last zero. The Broncos continue riding high after a 24-17 win over Fresno State last week. Brett Rypien completed 24 passes on 29 attempts for 269 yards, as well as a TD and an interception. Alexander Mattison (144 yards on 30 rush attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the ground attack. A.J. Richardson (five receptions, 66 yards) and Sean Modster (five catches, 63 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
One game ago, Air Force got the win against this New Mexico team by a score of 42-24. The Lobos defense let the Falcons kill the clock by rushing for 478 yards on 67 attempts, including four rush TDs. Donald Hammond III put up a productive showing for Air Force, recording 136 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts. As a group, the Lobos collectively completed 13-of-18 passes for 186 yards and one interception. Coltin Gerhart went seven-for-nine for 72 yards while Sheriron Jones was six-of-nine for 114 yards and one interception. Daevon Vigilant (67 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Delane Hart-Johnson (three receptions, 83 yards) and Anselem Umeh (three catches, 77 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
Boise State has run the ball on 50.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico has a rush percentage of 62.4 percent. The Broncos have run for 153 yards/game (including 145 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 18 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Lobos are logging 163 rushing yards per game (138 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it seems like the Broncos might hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 4.0 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.7 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Lobos have ran for 3.8 yards per carry and allowed 4.6 YPC to opponents.
The Broncos offensive scheme has logged 314 yards/contest through the air overall (304 per game against conference opposition) and has 26 passing TDs so far. The Lobos have put up 199 pass yards per outing (165.7 in the MWC) and have 21 total pass scores.
Defensively, Boise State should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed 126 rush yards and 239 pass yards per game. The New Mexico D has given up 280.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 201.1 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.67 to opponents, while the Lobos have allowed a 7.92 ANY/A.
Offensively, Rypien is already up to 2,834 passing yards this year, and has completed 223-of-322 attempts with 24 passing scores and only six interceptions. He has an 8.47 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 6.34 over the past two games.
Sheriron Jones has completed 93-of-171 passes for 1,311 yards, 13 TDs and 11 INTs for New Mexico. His ANY/A stands at 5.54 for the season and 4.73 across his last two outings.
RELATED: Week 12 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Betting Pick: Boise State Broncos at New Mexico Lobos
SU Winner – Boise State, ATS Winner – New Mexico, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Trends
The New Mexico offense has lost seven fumbles this season while Boise State has lost four.
The Boise State defensive unit has 34 sacks on the year while New Mexico has just 20.
As a team, Boise State has averaged 3.6 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 3.6 over its last two.
New Mexico has averaged 2.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.0 over its last two.
Over its last three matches, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for Boise State’s last game was 55. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 victory over Fresno State.
Over its last three contests, Boise State is 1-1-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for New Mexico’s last matchup going into it was 55.5. The over cashed in the team’s 42-24 loss to Air Force.
New Mexico has lost seven of its last eight games SU, with a 36-point win over UNLV on October 6th accounting for the only victory over that stretch.
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