The Florida Gators (+8) are set to take on the No. 23 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-8) at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. This pivotal SEC game starts at 6:00 p.m. ET and ESPN is in line to televise the action. These two SEC foes did not get a chance to face each other last season.
Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview
Florida is getting picked as the underdog and is currently getting 8 points in this SEC game. The Gators are also receiving +260 moneyline odds while the Bulldogs are -340. If one side can create a bunch of points early, it’ll probably generate a reasonable live betting opportunity.
The game’s line opened at -7, but early action has swayed toward the Bulldogs.
The Gators have lost 5.0 units so far and are 3-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 1-2. The Bulldogs are down 3.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-1 ATS and also have an O/U record of 1-2.
The Gators are 3-1 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against SEC opponents. The Bulldogs are 3-1 SU overall and 0-1 SU in conference play.
The Gators are coming off a resounding 47-21 victory over Tennessee last week. Feleipe Franks completed only nine passes on 18 attempts for 172 yards and three touchdowns. Jordan Scarlett (77 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) led the running attack. Freddie Swain (two receptions, 88 yards, one TD) and Tyrie Cleveland (two catches, 43 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
One week ago, Kentucky knocked off this Mississippi State crew by a score of 28-7. The Bulldogs defense allowed the Wildcats to eat up the clock by running for 229 yards on 47 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Benny Snell was a force to be reckoned with, recording 165 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 25 attempts for Kentucky. For Mississippi State, Nick Fitzgerald completed 16-of-32 passes for 145 yards and one interception. Fitzgerald (20 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running game while Osirus Mitchell (six receptions, 65 yards) and Kylin Hill (three catches, 19 yards) led the Mississippi State pass-catchers in the loss.
In terms of offensive play-calling, each of these squads sports a remarkably similar (57-43) run-pass ratio on the season. The Gators have rushed for 189 yards per game (including 165 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have six scores on the ground this year. The Bulldogs are putting up 248 rushing yards per game and have 13 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Bulldogs could hold an edge when it comes to RB effectiveness, since their backfield has generated 6.6 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Gators have tallied 5.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.2 YPC to opponents.
The Gators offensive scheme has logged 195 yards/contest in the air overall (209 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Bulldogs have produced 243 pass yards per game and have nine total pass scores.
Defensively, Florida has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 188 yards and pass for 151 yards per game. The Mississippi State D has allowed 148.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 121.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulldogs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.08 to opposing QBs, while the Gators have allowed a 3.87 ANY/A.
Offensively, Franks has put up 623 passing yards this season. He’s completed 53 percent of his 80 attempts with 10 passing scores and only one interception. Franks has a sparkling 8.93 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 9.14 over the last two outings.
The Gators have tried to control the pace by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Dameon Pierce (138 rush yards, one rush TD) and Jordan Scarlett (126 rush yards, one rush TD) have really been focal points in the Florida offensive scheme.
For the home team, Nick Fitzgerald has completed 27-of-59 passes for 299 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Fitzgerald’s ANY/A stands at a minuscule 3.65 for the year and 5.93 over his past two outings.
The Bulldogs will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Aeris Williams (35 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Nick Fitzgerald (179 rush yards, one rush TD) and Stephen Guidry (zero rush yards, 117 receiving yards) have seen a lot of touches lately.
NCAA Prediction: Florida Gators vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
SU Winner – Mississippi State, ATS Winner – Mississippi State
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Notes
Betting Trends
Florida has produced 5.98913043478261 yards per carry across its last three outings and 6.7 over its last two.
Mississippi State has averaged 6.8 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 5.2 over its last two.
The Mississippi State offense has lost zero fumbles this season while Florida has lost two.
The Gators offense has produced two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Bulldogs have put up three such plays.
The Florida defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Mississippi State has given up one such play.
The Florida offense has created seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Mississippi State has created nine such runs.
The Gators defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bulldogs have given up four such runs.
The Mississippi State D has sacked opposing QBs 13 times this season. Florida has registered nine sacks.
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