The North Carolina Tar Heels and Virginia Cavaliers are ready to square off on the grass at David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium. This conference game gets underway at 12:20 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to CHSS.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview
In this Saturday Atlantic Coast matchup, Virginia is getting picked as the big favorite and is currently giving up 9 points. The Tar Heels are also receiving +280 moneyline odds while the Cavaliers are -360. Should one school can create a bunch of points early it will produce a nice live betting scenario. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 49.5 points.
The line opened at -9. The game’s total has yet to move after it was set initially at 49.5.
The underwhelming Tar Heels are 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 11.1 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 4-2. The surprising Cavaliers have gained 5.3 units this season. They’re 6-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-4.
The Tar Heels are only 1-5 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against ACC opponents. The Cavaliers are 5-2 SU overall and 3-1 SU in conference play.
When these two teams met a year ago, Virginia won by two field goals 20-14.
Virginia enters this one on a three-game losing streak while North Carolina has won its last two in a row. The Heels fell to Syracuse 40-37 in a game where the defense allowed the Orange to pass for 406 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 140 yards and two scores. Jamal Custis was unmatched for the Orange in that one with 162 yards and a score on seven catches. On the offense, Nathan Elliott completed 34 passes for 321 yards and two touchdowns. Antonio Williams (116 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) and Michael Carter (24 yards on 10 carries) led the running attack while Anthony Ratliff-Williams (nine receptions, 79 yards) and Dazz Newsome (seven catches, 90 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
The Virginia Wahoos are coming off of a 28-14 win over Duke. The defensive secondary let the Blue Devils air it out for 262 yards and two touchdowns. Chris Taylor had a productive showing in the defeat, recording 97 yards on six catches for Duke. For Virginia, Bryce Perkins completed 20-of-32 passes for 189 yards and one touchdown. Perkins (61 rushing yards on 15 attempts, two TDs) and PK Kier (36 yards on 12 carries) mounted the running game as Olamide Zaccheaus (10 receptions, 66 yards) and Hasise Dubois (four catches, 41 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
North Carolina’s run the ball on 48.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Virginia has a rush percentage of 57.9 percent. The Tar Heels have rushed for 188 yards per game (including 201 per game against Atlantic Coast opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Wahoos are averaging 182 rushing yards per game (154 in conference) and have 12 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it seems like the Tar Heels could have an advantage when it comes to quarterback protection, since their offensive line has allowed only 30 sacks while their D-line registered 23 sacks. The Cavaliers O-line has given up 31 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 28 times.
The Heels offensive scheme has averaged 234 yards through the air overall (259 per game versus conference opposition) and has six passing TDs so far. The Wahoos have put up 203 pass yards per contest (186.3 in the ACC) and have 12 total pass scores.
North Carolina has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 189 yards and pass for 223 yards per game. The Virginia D has given up 206.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 119.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wahoos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.71 to opposing QBs, while the Tar Heels have allowed a 5.61 ANY/A.
Offensively, Elliott has put up 1,094 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 109-of-181 attempts with five scores through the air and four interceptions. Elliott has a 5.40 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.49 over the past two games.
The Tar Heels have tried to control the clock by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Michael Carter (127 rush yards, 52 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Antonio Williams (397 rush yards, four rush TDs, 59 receiving yards) have brought significant production to the North Carolina offensive scheme.
Bryce Perkins has managed to complete 107-of-169 passes for 1,314 yards, 12 TDs and four INTs for Virginia. His ANY/A sits at 7.09 for the year and 2.22 across his last two games.
The Wahoos should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. Along with Bryce Perkins (nine receiving yards), Jordan Ellis (533 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Olamide Zaccheaus (28 rush yards, 567 receiving yards, six TDs) have gotten a lot of looks lately.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers
SU Winner – Virginia, ATS Winner – Virginia, O/U – Over
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Virginia offense has lost four fumbles this season while North Carolina has let seven get away.
The North Carolina defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 20 times this season. Virginia has recorded 15 sacks.
As a team, North Carolina has rushed for 5.3 yards per attempt over its past three games and 5.2 over its last two.
Virginia has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.7 over its past two.
Over its last three games, Virginia is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for North Carolina’s last game was 66. The over cashed in the team’s 40-37 defeat to Syracuse.
In its last three games, North Carolina is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Virginia’s previous outing was set at 45.5. The under cashed in the team’s 28-14 victory over Duke.
Virginia has won five of its last six games SU, with a -14-point loss to North Carolina State on September 29th representing the only defeat over that stretch.
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