The Purdue Boilermakers (-12.5) and Minnesota Golden Gophers are set to do battle on the turf at TCF Bank Stadium. This afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPN2 will broadcast the action.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Betting Preview
Minnesota is entering this Big 10 matchup as a big underdog and is currently being given 12.5 points. The Boilermakers are also receiving -525 moneyline odds while the Golden Gophers are +360. Should one school gets out in front early it would produce a worthwhile live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 58 points.
The game’s O/U has swung downward after initially being set at 58.5. The opening line of 12.5 has not shifted.
The Boilermakers are 5-3-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.4 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-4. The Golden Gophers have lost 3.5 units this season. The team is 5-4 ATS and the over’s hit in six of its games.
The Boilermakers are 5-4 straight up (SU), including 4-2 SU against conference opponents. The Golden Gophers are 4-5 SU overall and 1-5 SU in conference play.
The Boilermakers enter after a 38-36 victory over Iowa last week. The passing attack left much to be desired as David Blough completed 23 passes on 32 attempts for 333 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Markell Jones (only 40 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) provided the ground attack in the win while Rondale Moore (six receptions, 31 yards) and Terry Wright (six catches, 146 yards, three TDs) handled the receiving duties.
One week ago, Illinois took care of this Minnesota crew by a score of 55-31. The Gophers defensive unit allowed the Fighting Illini to kill the clock by running for 430 yards on 35 rush attempts, including five rush TDs. Reggie Corbin was a force to be reckoned with, recording 213 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 attempts for Illinois. For Minnesota, Tanner Morgan completed 14-of-27 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns. Mohamed Ibrahim (98 yards on 18 rush attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Morgan (five yards on 10 carries) led the ground game in the defeat as Rashod Bateman (seven receptions, 175 yards, two TDs) and Tyler Johnson (five catches, 68 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Purdue has run the ball on 43.8 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 41.8 percent across possessions in conference play. Minnesota has an overall rush percentage of 57.5 percent, and has kept it on the ground 55.4 percent of the time against Big 10 opponents. The Boilermakers have produced 156 rush yards per game (including 157 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 16 scores via handoffs this year. The Gophers are totaling 154 rush yards per game (140 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.
Based on the numbers so far, it’s looking like the Boilermakers might have an edge when it comes to RB efficiency. Their running backs has logged 5.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.6 YPC to opponents. The Golden Gophers have recorded 3.9 yards per carry and allowed 5.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Boilermakers offensive scheme has averaged 330 yards in the air overall (328 per game versus conference opposition) and has 20 passing scores so far. The Gophers have produced 235 pass yards per game (255.3 against Big 10 competition) and have 15 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Purdue has let opponents run for an average of 131 yards and throw for 296 yards per game. The Minnesota defense has allowed 235.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 188.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Boilermakers have given up an ANY/A of 6.15 to opposing QBs, while the Gophers are yielding an ANY/A of 6.24.
Offensively, Blough is up to 2,406 passing yards on the year, and has completed 176-of-262 attempts with 17 passing scores and only four interceptions. Blough has a 9.03 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 5.55 over the past two outings.
We expect the Purdue offense to mix it up in this one. Terry Wright, D.J. Knox and Brycen Hopkins have combined for 451 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
In the host locker room, Tanner Morgan has completed 27-of-49 passes for 507 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Morgan’s ANY/A sits at 8.48 for the season and 10.75 over his last two games.
Rashod Bateman (470 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns on the year), Tyler Johnson (773 receiving yards, six receiving TDs) and Shannon Brooks (154 rush yards, one rush TD) have combined for 618 total yards and six touchdowns the last couple of games.
When these two teams met a year ago, Purdue knocked off Minnesota by a couple of touchdowns 31-17.
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Over/Under for Purdue’s previous game going into it was 52. The over cashed in the team’s 38-36 win over Iowa.
Purdue has averaged 4.4 yards per carry across its last three games and 3.7 over its last two.
Minnesota has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.4 over its last two.
The Minnesota offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Purdue has lost four.
In its last three matches, Purdue is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Purdue has won six of its last seven games SU, with a 10-point defeat to Michigan State on October 27th accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
The Over/Under for Minnesota’s last matchup was set at 62. The over cashed in the team’s 55-31 loss to Illinois.
In its last three matchups, Minnesota is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The Boilermakers offense has tallied 15 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Golden Gophers have accounted for seven such plays.
The Purdue defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Minnesota has given up eight such plays.
The Purdue offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Minnesota has created seven such runs.
The Boilermakers defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Golden Gophers have given up 22 such runs.
The Purdue defense has 20 sacks on the year while Minnesota has 15.
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