Two teams that like to run the football, Head Coach Scott Satterfield and the No. 25 Appalachian State Mountaineers (-8) are gearing up to take on their conference nemesis Georgia Southern Eagles at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. The game is scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET and you can watch the action on ESPNU.
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles Betting Preview
In this Thursday Sun Belt matchup, Appalachian State is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Mountaineers are also receiving -340 moneyline odds while the Eagles are +260. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points. If the favorite falls down early, it will likely result in a solid in-game betting scenario.
The game’s line originally opened at 9.5 and the over/under was set initially at 49, so the general public is siding with both the Eagles and the under.
Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Mountaineers have gained 2.0 units and the Eagles are ahead 5.3 units.
The Mountaineers are 5-1 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against SBC opponents. The Eagles are 6-1 SU overall and are also 3-0 SU in conference play.
The Mountaineers continue to ride high after a 27-17 victory over Louisiana last week where Zac Thomas completed only 10-of-20 passes for 106 yards, along with a score and a pick. Darrynton Evans (183 rushing yards on 26 attempts, one TD) and Marcus Williams Jr. (29 yards on 12 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while Dominique Heath (three receptions, 20 yards) and Thomas Hennigan (two catches, eight yards) handled the receiving duties.
Georgia Southern is coming off of a lopsided 48-31 win over New Mexico State. The defensive unit allowed the Aggies to rush for 148 yards on 35 attempts, including four rush TDs. Jason Huntley was a bright spot in the defeat for New Mexico State, accounting for 68 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 12 attempts, along with 50 yards and a score on four catches. As a group, the Eagles collectively completed four-of-four passes for 77 yards. Shai Werts went four-for-four for 77 yards while Dexter Carter Jr. was -of- for yards. Monteo Garrett (76 rushing yards on 17 attempts, one TD) and Logan Wright (136 yards on 17 carries, two TDs) handled the ground game in the win while Ellis Richardson (one receptions, 31 yards) and Davarius Bargnare (one catch, 23 yards) led the receiving corps.
Appalachian State has run the ball on 62.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia Southern has an overall rush percentage of 87.4 percent. The Mountaineers have produced 264 rush yards/game (including 284 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 18 scores via handoffs this year. The Eagles are averaging 276 rush yards per game (269 in conference) and have 22 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Mountaineers ought to own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, since their running backs has logged 6.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Eagles have ran for 5.4 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.1 to opponents.
The Mountaineers offensive scheme has averaged 211 yards in the air overall (140 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing scores so far. The Eagles have put up 76 pass yards per game (70.3 against SBC foes) and have four total pass TDs.
Appalachian State seems to possess an advantage in both defensive facets. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 112 yards and throw for 183 yards per game. The Georgia Southern defense has allowed 219.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 148.1 yards per game on the ground. The Mountaineers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.63 to opponents, while the Eagles have given up a 4.71 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Thomas has put up 1,002 yards on the year, and has completed 65 percent of his 105 attempts with nine passing scores and four interceptions. He has an 8.76 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 5.44 over the last two games.
We expect the Appalachian State offense to mix it up in this one. Darrynton Evans, Zac Thomas and Henry Pearson have combined for 493 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
In the home locker room, Shai Werts has completed 23-of-39 passes for 440 yards, four TDs and zero INTs. Werts’ ANY/A stands at 10.46 for the season and 5.63 over his past two outings.
We’re looking for the Eagles to control tempo by feeding their ball-carriers early and often. Along with WR Wesley Kennedy III (152 receiving yards this season), Logan Wright (176 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Monteo Garrett (329 rush yards, four rush TDs) have been key factors in the Eagles’ recent offensive strategies.
These two programs faced off last year with the final outcome being a 27-6 win for Appalachian State.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Prediction: Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
SU Winner – Appalachian State, ATS Winner – Appalachian State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
Both passing attacks have produced four pass plays of 40+ yards. The Mountaineers have have made 11 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Eagles have created six such plays.
The Appalachian State defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Georgia Southern has given up one such play.
The Appalachian State offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Georgia Southern has created 16 such runs.
The Mountaineers defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Eagles have given up six such runs.
The Georgia Southern defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 18 times this season. Appalachian State has recorded just 12 sacks.
As a team, Appalachian State has produced 6.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.9 over its last two.
Georgia Southern has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.9 over its past two.
In its last three contests, Georgia Southern is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Appalachian State’s last game was 64.5. The under cashed in the team’s 27-17 victory over Louisiana.
Over its last three contests, Appalachian State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Georgia Southern’s last matchup going into it was 52.5. The over cashed in the team’s 48-31 win over New Mexico State.
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