In a battle featuring two schools that prefer running the football, Head Coach Troy Calhoun and the Air Force Falcons (-13) are facing off against their conference nemesis UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium. Kickoff is pretty late for fans on the East Coast (10:00 p.m. ET) and CBS Sports Network will broadcast the action.
Air Force Falcons at UNLV Rebels Betting Preview
UNLV is getting picked to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 13 points in this Friday MWC game. The Falcons are also receiving -550 moneyline odds while the Rebels are +375. If one side can create a bunch of points early on it would result in a nice betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points.
The game’s O/U has swung higher after initially being set at 54.5. The opening spread hasn’t changed.
The Falcons are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and are down 2.8 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-3. The Rebels have lost 4.6 units this season. The team is 3-3 ATS and four of its games have gone over the total.
The Falcons have gone 2-4 straight up (SU), including 0-3 SU against MWC opponents. The Rebels are 2-4 SU overall and 0-2 SU in conference play.
The Falcons dropped one to San Diego State 21-17 in a game where the passing attack could’ve been more effective as Isaiah Sanders completed just seven passes on 15 attempts for 51 yards and one interception. Sanders (49 yards on 15 rush attempts) also led the running attack in the loss. Cleveland (two receptions, three yards) and Kade Waguespack (two catches, 31 yards) shared the receiving duties.
UNLV just dropped a brutal 59-28 game to Utah State. The defensive unit allowed the Aggies to pass for 377 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 221 yards and two scores. Jalen Greene put up a good showing, posting 132 yards on five catches for Utah State. For UNLV, Max Gilliam completed 18-of-36 passes for 250 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Lexington Thomas (51 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) and Charles Williams (21 yards on 11 carries) mounted the ground game in the defeat while Darren Woods Jr. (five receptions, 53 yards, one TD) and Tyleek Collins (four catches, 139 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
Air Force’s run the ball on 81.0 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 76.7 percent across possessions in conference play. UNLV has an overall rush percentage of 65.1 percent, and has carried the ball 51.4 percent of the time when playing MWC opponents. The Falcons have produced 248 rush yards per game (including 230 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 16 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Rebels are totaling 257 rushing yards per game (99 in conference) and have 14 total rush TDs.
If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Falcons may have the more disruptive lines up front, as their offensive line has allowed only 22 sacks while the D-line logged 10 sacks. The Rebels offensive line has allowed 24 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 11 occasions.
The Falcons offense has averaged 107 yards through the air overall (102 per game versus conference opposition) and has three passing scores so far. The Rebels have produced 124 pass yards per game (186.5 against MWC foes) and have 11 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Air Force has let opponents run for an average of 101 yards and pass for 232 yards per game. The UNLV defense has allowed 244.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 199.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Falcons are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.13 to opposing QBs, while the Rebels have given up an ugly 8.82 ANY/A.
Offensively, Hammond III is up to 82 passing yards this year. He’s completed 44 percent of his 16 attempts with one scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. He has a 6.38 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 15.73 over the last two games.
For the home team, Max Gilliam has managed to complete 19-of-37 passes for 250 yards, three TDs and one INT. Gilliam’s ANY/A stands at a less-than-ideal 4.80 for the year and 3.55 over his last two games.
When these two teams met last year, Air Force earned the win 34-30.
RELATED: Week 8 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Pick: Air Force Falcons at UNLV Rebels
SU Winner – Air Force, ATS Winner – Air Force, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes
The UNLV defense has recorded nine sacks on the year while Air Force has six.
Both teams have lost five fumbles this season.
Both teams have produced two pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Falcons have have made three pass plays of 30+ yards while the Rebels have created four such plays.
The Air Force defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UNLV has given up five such plays.
The Air Force offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UNLV has created 18 such runs.
The Falcons defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Rebels have given up 18 such runs.
The Over/Under for UNLV’s last matchup was set at 66. The over cashed in that 59-28 loss to Utah State.
Over its last three games, UNLV is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three contests, Air Force is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for Air Force’s previous game was set at 42.5. The under cashed in the team’s 21-17 defeat to San Diego State.
Air Force has produced 4.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.4 over its last two.
UNLV has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.6 over its past two.
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