In a battle featuring two schools that like to focus on their running games, Bobcats of Texas State (-21.5) are gearing up to host their in-conference foe No. 25 Appalachian State Mountaineers at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium. The afternoon game is scheduled to start at 4:00 p.m. ET and ESPN 3 will broadcast the action.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
Appalachian State is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 21.5 points to Texas State. If the Mountaineers get down early it’ll result in a worthwhile betting scenario in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points.
The Mountaineers are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.5 units so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-3. The Bobcats are down 2.5 units this season. The team is 5-3-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-5.
The Mountaineers are 6-2 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against conference opponents. The Bobcats are 3-6 SU overall and 1-4 SU in conference play.
The Mountaineers are coming off a resounding 23-7 victory over Coastal Carolina last week. The defensive unit did its part in the win, keeping the Chanticleers to just 106 passing yards and 72 rushing yards. Ky’Jon Tyler had a good day for the Chanticleers in that one with 39 yards on three catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Jacob Huesman completed just nine-of-19 passes for 127 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Darrynton Evans (159 rushing yards on 27 attempts, one TD) and Marcus Williams Jr. (103 yards on 19 carries, one TD) spearheaded the running attack in the win while Dominique Heath (four receptions, 55 yards) and Evans (one catch, 12 yards) shared the receiving duties.
The Texas State Bobcats are coming off of a 40-31 win over Georgia State. The defense let the Panthers run for 221 yards on 43 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Tra Barnett was a bright spot in the loss, recording 85 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 16 attempts for Georgia State. For Texas State, Willie Jones III completed 21-of-26 passes for 325 yards and two touchdowns. Jones III (62 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) and Caleb Twyford (73 yards on eight carries, one TD) handled the ground game in the win as Keenen Brown (six receptions, 63 yards) and Hutch White (four catches, 27 yards) led the Texas State pass-catchers.
Appalachian State has run the ball on 63.9 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 66.5 percent across possessions in conference play. Texas State has a rush percentage of 57.4 percent, and has run the ball 54.9 percent of the time when facing SBC opponents. The Mountaineers have produced 252 rush yards/game (including 257 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 21 scores via handoffs this year. The Bobcats are logging 147 rush yards per game (136 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Mountaineers might own the advantage when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has generated 5.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Bobcats have ran for 3.9 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.5 to opponents.
The Mountaineers offense has logged 192 yards per contest in the air overall (137 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Bobcats have recorded 196 pass yards per game (218.0 in the SBC) and have 14 total pass scores.
Appalachian State appears to hold an advantage in both areas of the defense. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 128 yards and pass for 157 yards per game. The Texas State defense has allowed 201.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 178.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mountaineers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.64 to opposing QBs, while the Bobcats have given up a 5.49 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Huesman is up to 125 yards this season, and has completed 11-of-22 attempts with one passing scores and two interceptions. He’s got a 1.67 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 0.92 over the last two outings.
We expect the Mountaineers to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Corey Sutton (399 yards, five TDs) has gotten looks recently, but backfield mates Darrynton Evans (584 rush yards, four rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Marcus Williams Jr. (297 rush yards, two rush TDs, one receiving TD) have delivered in the Appalachian State offensive scheme.
Willie Jones III has completed 63-of-112 passes for 845 yards, five TDs and two INTs for Texas State. His ANY/A stands at 6.18 for the year and 10.83 over his last two games.
The Bobcats also prefer to utilize their backfield. In addition to Willie Jones III (zero receiving yards), Jeremiah Haydel (-4 rush yards, 243 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Robert Brown, Jr. (189 rush yards, one rush TD) have gotten quite a few touches lately.
These two squads faced off a year ago with the final result being a 20-13 win for Appalachian State.
Free Pick: Appalachian State Mountaineers at Texas State Bobcats
SU Winner – Texas State, ATS Winner – Texas State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Appalachian State defensive unit has 15 sacks on the year while Texas State has 11.
Texas State has lost seven fumbles in 2018 while Appalachian State has lost three.
The Mountaineers offense has recorded five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Bobcats have accounted for six such plays.
The Appalachian State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40+ yards, while Texas State has given up five such plays.
The Appalachian State offense has created 19 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Texas State has created 12 such runs.
Both teams have allowed seven rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Mountaineers have given up 33 running plays of 10+ yards while the Bobcats have given up 50 such plays.
The O/U for Texas State’s last game was set at 52.5. The over cashed in the 40-31 victory over Georgia State.
In its last three games, Texas State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three games, Appalachian State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Appalachian State has won seven of its last eight games SU, with a 20-point loss to Georgia Southern on October 25th accounting for the only slip-up over that stretch.
The Over/Under for Appalachian State’s last game going into it was 53. The under cashed in the team’s 23-7 win over Coastal Carolina.
As a team, Appalachian State has averaged 5.0 yards per rush attempt over its past three contests and 4.6 over its last two.
Texas State has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.7 over its last two.
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