A couple of teams that like to run the football, Head Coach Bob Davie and the New Mexico Lobos (+14) are gearing up to pay a visit to their conference foe Air Force Falcons (-14) at Falcon Stadium. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and CBS Sports Network has the TV rights.
New Mexico Lobos vs. Air Force Falcons Betting Preview
In this Saturday Mountain West game, Air Force has been tabbed as the big favorite and is currently giving up 14 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently need to put up $600 to win $100 back on the Falcons (-600). The Lobos are getting +425 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 55.5 points, and if one squad can get out in front early, it will likely result in a nice live betting opportunity.
The line opened at -14. The game’s over/under has yet to change after being set initially at 55.5.
The Lobos are 4-5 against the spread (ATS) and are down 3.6 units so far. The team’s recorded an Over-Under mark of 6-2. The Falcons are down 3.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-3-1 ATS and have an even O/U record of 4-4.
The Lobos have gone 3-6 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against conference opponents. The Falcons are 3-6 SU overall and are also 1-4 SU in conference play.
The Lobos fell to San Diego State 31-23 in a contest where their defense allowed the Aztecs to run for 161 yards on 40 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Offensively, Coltin Gerhart completed just nine passes on 20 attempts for 41 yards, two scores and one interception. Zahneer Shuler (two receptions, two yards) and Jay Griffin IV (two catches, 10 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
One week ago, Army West Point knocked off this Air Force team by a score of 17-14. As a group, the Falcons collectively completed 12-of-22 passes for 197 yards and one interception. Donald Hammond III went seven-for-15 for 120 yards while Isaiah Sanders was five-of-seven for 77 yards and one interception. Hammond III (30 yards on nine rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Geraud Sanders (three receptions, 55 yards) and Brandon Lewis (three catches, 32 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
New Mexico has run the ball on 62.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Air Force has a rush percentage of 79.0 percent. The Lobos have rushed for 168 yards/game (including 141 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Falcons are totaling 241 rushing yards per game (249 in conference) and have 24 total rush TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Falcons ought to own an edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their running backs has produced 4.2 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Lobos have tallied 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 4.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Lobos offense has averaged 200 yards through the air overall (162 per game against conference opposition) and has 21 passing TDs so far. The Falcons have produced 144 pass yards per contest (153.0 in the MWC) and have seven total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, New Mexico has allowed 170 rush yards and 296 pass yards per game. The Air Force defense has allowed 234.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 123.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Lobos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.50 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have given up a whopping 8.56 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Gerhart is up to 53 yards this season. The signal-caller has connected on 48 percent of his 21 attempts with two passing scores and one interception. Gerhart’s got a 0.74 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 2.45 over the last two games.
We expect the Lobos to control the clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. The duo of Daevon Vigilant (93 rush yards) and Tyrone Owens (543 rush yards, six rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been focal points in the offensive game scripts for New Mexico.
In the other locker room, Isaiah Sanders has completed 38-of-63 passes for 634 yards, two TDs and three INTs. Sanders’ ANY/A stands at 7.97 for the season and 10.96 across his last two outings.
The Falcons also like to utilize their backfield. In addition to Joseph Saucier (61 receiving yards), Isaiah Sanders (369 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Geraud Sanders (223 receiving yards) have seen plenty of looks recently.
When these two teams faced one another last year, New Mexico emerged victorious by a final score of 56-38.
NCAA Pick: New Mexico Lobos at Air Force Falcons
SU Winner – New Mexico, ATS Winner – New Mexico, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The New Mexico defense has 20 sacks on the year while Air Force has just 11.
The Air Force offense has lost seven fumbles in 2018 while the New Mexico offense has let six get away.
The Lobos offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Falcons have put up four such plays.
The New Mexico defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while Air Force has given up eight such plays.
The New Mexico offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Air Force has created 11 such runs.
The Lobos defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Falcons have given up 11 such runs.
The Over/Under for Air Force’s previous game was 41.5. The under cashed in the 17-14 loss to Army West Point.
Over its last three games, Air Force is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matches, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
New Mexico has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a 36-point victory over UNLV on October 6th accounting for the only win over that span.
Air Force has lost four of its last five games SU, with a six-point win over UNLV on October 19th representing its only victory over that stretch.
The O/U for New Mexico’s previous game going into it was 45.5. The over cashed in the team’s 31-23 loss to San Diego State.
New Mexico has rushed for 3.2 yards per attempt across its last three contests and 2.6 over its last two.
Air Force has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.8 over its past two.
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