In a battle featuring two schools that like to keep the ball on the ground, Coach Smith Jonathan and the Oregon State Beavers are getting 14.5 points as they prepare to welcome their conference nemesis Oregon Ducks to Reser Stadium. The afternoon matchup is scheduled to get underway at 4:00 p.m. ET and you can tune in to the action on FS1.
Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers Betting Preview
In this Friday Pac-12 game, Oregon is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 14.5 points. The Ducks are also receiving -750 moneyline odds while the Beavers are +510. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 68.5 points, and some solid live betting possibilities might present themselves during the showdown.
The Ducks are 4-7 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.9 units this season. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-6. The Beavers have lost 4.0 units for moneyline bettors this year. They’re 4-7 ATS and have an O/U record of 8-3.
The Ducks have gone 7-4 straight up (SU), including 4-4 SU against Pac-12 opponents. The Beavers are 2-9 SU overall and 1-7 SU in conference play.
The Ducks enter after a 31-29 win over Arizona State last weekTheir defense allowed the Sun Devils to run for 142 yards on 41 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Eno Benjamin had a productive day for the Sun Devils in that one with 149 rushing yards on 29 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, Justin Herbert completed only 19 passes on 34 attempts for 262 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Travis Dye (105 yards on 18 rush attempts) and CJ Verdell (70 yards on 14 carries, one TD) provided the ground attack in the win while Jaylon Redd (five receptions, 69 yards) and Dillon Mitchell (four catches, 103 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties.
Oregon State most recently suffered a 42-23 defeat to Washington. The defense allowed the Huskies to eat up the clock by running for 275 yards on 42 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Myles Gaskin was outstandingfor the Huskies, putting up 135 rushing yards and a score on 18 attempts. For Oregon State, Jake Luton completed 18-of-32 passes for 190 yards and one touchdown. Jermar Jefferson (115 rushing yards on 19 attempts) mounted the ground attack in the defeat while Trevon Bradford (four receptions, 62 yards) and Timmy Hernandez (four catches, 45 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Each team sports a similar (54-46) run-pass ratio on the season. The Ducks have produced 173 rush yards per game (including 158 per game against Pac-12 opponents) and have 22 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Beavers are averaging 165 rushing yards per game (147 in conference) and have 23 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then the Ducks could own the advantage in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has generated 4.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.9 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Beavers have rushed for 4.0 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 6.8 to opponents.
The Ducks offense has averaged 267 yards in the air overall (259 per game versus conference opposition) and has 27 passing scores so far. The Beavers have recorded 246 pass yards per game (220.5 in the Pac-12) and have 15 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Oregon should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed 151 rush yards and 244 pass yards per game. The Oregon State defense has allowed 267.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 271.8 yards per game on the ground. The Ducks are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.99 to opposing QBs, while the Beavers have given up a whopping 9.17 ANY/A.
Offensively, Herbert has amassed 2,595 passing yards on the year, and has completed 59 percent of his 326 attempts with 24 scores through the air and eight interceptions. He has a 7.76 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.32 over the last two outings.
We’re looking for Ducks to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to receiver Dillon Mitchell (936 receiving yards and seven touchdowns), CJ Verdell (760 rush yards, six rush TDs, 227 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Travis Dye (456 rush yards, two rush TDs) have brought significant production to the Oregon offensive scheme.
Jake Luton has connected on 105-of-161 passes for 1,173 yards, six TDs and one INT for Oregon State. His ANY/A sits at 6.57 for the year and 5.81 over his past two games.
The Beavers should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Jermar Jefferson (155 receiving yards), Trevon Bradford (121 rush yards, 458 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Isaiah Hodgins (706 receiving yards and five TDs) have gotten a lot of looks lately.
When these two squads met a year ago, Oregon knocked off Oregon State soundly 69-10.
NCAA Pick: Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers
SU Winner – Oregon, ATS Winner – Oregon, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Over/Under for Oregon’s previous game going into it was 66. The under cashed in the team’s 31-29 victory over Arizona State.
As a team, Oregon has produced 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.2 over its last two.
Oregon State has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.4 over its past two.
The Oregon State offense has lost eight fumbles this season while Oregon has let 10 get away.
In its last three matches, Oregon is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Oregon State’s last matchup going into it was 58.5. The over cashed in the team’s 42-23 defeat to Washington.
Over its last three matches, Oregon State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Oregon State has dropped nine of its last 10 games SU, with a seven-point victory over Colorado on October 27th representing its lone win over that stretch.
The Ducks offense has produced 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Beavers have accounted for eight such plays.
The Oregon defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Oregon State has given up nine such plays.
The Oregon offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Oregon State has created 23 such runs.
The Ducks defense has allowed 17 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Beavers have given up 37 such runs.
The Oregon defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 24 times this year. Oregon State has registered just 13 sacks.
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