The San Diego State Aztecs (+15) are set to take on their MWC rival Boise State Broncos (-15) at Albertsons Stadium. ESPNU has the TV rights and kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
San Diego State is getting picked as the underdog and is currently getting 15 points in this MWC game. The Aztecs are also receiving +510 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -750. This MWC tilt should provide several decent in-game betting scenarios, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 51 points.
This game’s line opened at -15. The O/U has yet to change after it was set initially at 51.
The Aztecs have gained 1.9 units so far and are 1-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-3. The Broncos have gained 0.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-1 ATS and three of their games have gone over the total.
The Aztecs are 3-1 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any MWC competition yet. The Broncos are 3-1 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.
The Aztecs just put together a 23-20 win over Eastern Michigan on September 22. Ryan Agnew completed just 12-of-22 passes for 176 yards, two scores and one interception. Chase Jasmin (94 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and Juwan Washington (61 yards on 12 carries) led the ground attack in the win while Fred Trevillion (two receptions, 40 yards) and Parker Houston (two catches, 34 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
The Boise State Broncos are coming off of a lopsided 34-14 win over Wyoming. The defense held its ground in the victory, holding the Cowboys to just 214 passing yards and 81 rushing yards. Nico Evans was a bright spot in the loss, recording 141 rushing yards and a score on 12 attempts for Wyoming. For Boise State, Brett Rypien completed 28-of-42 passes for 342 yards and two touchdowns. Alexander Mattison (57 rushing yards on 20 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Sean Modster (seven receptions, 88 yards) and A.J. Richardson (six catches, 113 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
San Diego State has run the ball on 66.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Boise State has a rush percentage of 48.6 percent. The Aztecs have produced 198 rush yards/game and have six touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Broncos are logging 177 rushing yards per game and have eight total rush TDs.
If 2018 numbers are any indication, then it seems like the Broncos could hold an edge when it comes to applying pressure, as their offensive line has given up only 10 sacks while the D-line has logged 14 sacks. The Aztecs offensive line has allowed 12 sacks and their defense has created only eight sacks.
The Aztecs offense has averaged 172 yards in the air overall and has three passing TDs so far. The Broncos have produced a ridiculous 362 pass yards per contest and have 13 total pass scores.
San Diego State has let opponents run for an average of 65 yards and pass for 273 yards per game. The Boise State defense has given up 196.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 125.8 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.39 to opposing QBs, while the Aztecs have given up an 8.45 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Agnew has amassed 335 yards this year, and has connected on 59 percent of his 39 attempts with two passing scores and three interceptions. Agnew has a 5.02 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.67 over the last two games.
In the home locker room, Brett Rypien has completed 69-of-98 passes for 1,009 yards, nine TDs and zero INTs. Rypien’s ANY/A stands at 11.67 for the season and 7.20 across his last two outings.
When these two programs met last year, Boise State earned the win 31-14.
RELATED: Week 6 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Tip: San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos
SU Winner – Boise State, ATS Winner – Boise State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Trends
Both teams have lost two fumbles this season.
The Boise State D has recorded 14 sacks on the year while San Diego State has just eight.
As a team, San Diego State has averaged 4.59285714285714 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 5.1 over its last two.
Boise State has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.5 over its past two.
In its last three games, Boise State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
San Diego State was favored by 11 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 48.5. The under cashed and San Diego State failed to cover in the 23-20 victory over Eastern Michigan.
Over its last three matchups, San Diego State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Boise State was getting 15 points in its last match and the Over/Under was set at 46.5. The over cashed and Boise State covered in the team’s 34-14 win over Wyoming.
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