The No. 17 TCU Horned Frogs (-3.5) aren’t traveling far to take on the Texas Longhorns at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium/Jamail Field. This conference game gets underway at 4:30 p.m. ET and interested parties can watch the action on FOX. When these two programs faced each other last year, TCU got the victory 24-7.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Preview
Texas is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 3.5 points in this Saturday Big 12 matchup. The Horned Frogs are also receiving -175 moneyline odds while the Longhorns are +155. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 51 points. Should the underdog gets out in front in the early stages, it would likely create a nice live betting opportunity.
Sharp bettors are apparently siding with both the Horned Frogs and the under. The line initially opened at 2.5 while the game’s O/U was originally 52.5.
The Horned Frogs are 1-1-1 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.0 unit so far in 2018. The team has posted an O/U record of 1-1. The Longhorns have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 4.0 units. The team is 1-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-1.
The Horned Frogs have gone 2-1 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any Big 12 competition yet. The Longhorns are 2-1 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.
The Horned Frogs fell to Ohio State 40-28 in a contest where the passing attack could’ve been sharper as Shawn Robinson completed 24 passes for 308 yards, one score and two interceptions. Sewo Olonilua (just 39 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) and Darius Anderson (154 yards on 12 carries, two TDs) led the running attack while Jalen Reagor (seven receptions, 98 yards) and KaVontae Turpin (four catches, 14 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Texas are coming off of a blowout 37-14 win over USC. The team’s defensive secondary allowed the Trojans to air it out for 322 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown was a bright spot in the loss, posting 167 yards on nine catches for USC. For Texas, Sam Ehlinger completed 15-of-33 passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns. Tre Watson (72 yards on 18 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Ehlinger (35 yards on 17 carries, one TD) led the running game as Collin Johnson (six receptions, 79 yards) and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (four catches, 84 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
TCU’s run the ball on 54.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas has an overall rush percentage of 56.7 percent. The Horned Frogs have rushed for 226 yards per game and have eight scores on the ground this year. The Longhorns are logging 181 rushing yards per game and have five total rush TDs.
The Horned Frogs offensive scheme has averaged 242 yards in the air overall and has six passing TDs so far. The Longhorns have produced 245 pass yards per game and also have six total pass scores.
Defensively, TCU should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 132 rush yards and 185 pass yards per game. The Texas D has allowed 250.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 109.0 yards per game on the ground. The Horned Frogs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.73 to opponents, while the Longhorns have allowed a 5.71 ANY/A.
Offensively, Robinson has put up 490 passing yards this season, and has connected on 64 percent of his 64 attempts with four passing scores and two interceptions. Robinson has a 6.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 4.78 over the past two outings.
Sam Ehlinger has completed 36-of-72 passes for 486 yards, four TDs and two INTs for Texas. His ANY/A stands at 6.03 for the season and 8.39 over his last two outings.
NCAA Prediction: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns
SU Winner – TCU, ATS Winner – TCU, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Trends
The TCU defense has twice as many sacks as Texas this year (eight to four).
The Texas offense has lost three fumbles in 2018 while TCU has lost two.
The Horned Frogs offense has recorded four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Longhorns have accounted for two such plays.
The TCU defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Texas has given up five such plays.
The TCU offense has created three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Texas has created two such runs.
The Horned Frogs defense has allowed one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while the Longhorns have given up four such runs.
Texas was favored by 3 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 47.5. The over cashed and Texas covered in that 37-14 triumph over USC.
In its last three matches, Texas is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
TCU was the underdog by 12 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 60. The over cashed and the spread pushed in the 40-28 loss to Ohio State.
TCU has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over its last two outings.
Texas has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last two.
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