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College Football Free Pick: Eastern Michigan Eagles at San Diego State Aztecs

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The Eastern Michigan Eagles and San Diego State Aztecs are set to face off on the grass at SDCCU Stadium. CBS Sports Network will televise the action and the game is scheduled to get underway at 10:30 p.m. ET.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview

In this Saturday game, San Diego State is projected as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 11 points. The Eagles are also receiving +325 moneyline odds while the Aztecs are -450. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points. It appears that there should be multiple good in-game betting scenarios for this contest.

Sharp bettors are siding with the Aztecs, as the line opened at -10. The total has not moved after it was initially placed at 47.

The surprising Eagles are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 4.5 units so far. The team’s posted an Over-Under mark of 1-1. The Aztecs have gained 0.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-2.

The Eagles are 2-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Aztecs are also 2-1 SU.

The Eagles are aiming to bounce back from a 35-28 loss to Buffalo last week. the Eagles completed 25-of-38 passes for 348 yards and two touchdowns. Mike Glass III went 17-for-27 for 284 yards and two touchdowns while Tyler Wiegers completed eight-of-11 for 64 yards. Glass III (69 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) also led the running attack and was complemented by Shaq Vann (30 yards on 10 carries, one TD). Blake Banham (nine receptions, 159 yards, one TD) and Mathew Sexton (three catches, 42 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

San Diego State is coming off of a 28-21 win over Arizona State. Ryan Agnew completed 12-of-24 passes for 129 yards and one touchdown. Juwan Washington (138 rushing yards on 27 attempts, one TD) and Chase Jasmin (112 yards on 19 carries, one TD) handled the running game as Kahale Warring (four receptions, 30 yards) and Ethan Dedeaux (two catches, 30 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Eastern Michigan has run the ball on 53.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Diego State has a rush percentage of 67.6 percent. The Eagles have rushed for 127 yards/game and have five scores on the ground this year. The Aztecs are averaging 206 rush yards per game and have six total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Aztecs may hold an edge in terms of RB efficiency. Their running backs has generated 4.4 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 1.7 YPC to opponents. The Eagles have recorded 3.4 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 5.9 to opponents.

The Eagles offensive scheme has averaged 332 yards in the air overall and has eight passing TDs so far. The Aztecs have produced 171 pass yards per contest and have only one pass scores.

Defensively, Eastern Michigan appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 231 rush yards and 220 pass yards per game. The San Diego State defense has allowed 284.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 46.3 yards per game on the ground. The Eagles are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.70 to opponents, while the Aztecs have given up a whopping 8.81 ANY/A.

Offensively, Wiegers is up to 302 passing yards on the year, and has completed 81 percent of his 32 attempts with two passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. He has a 9.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 6.67 over the past two outings.

Ryan Agnew has managed to complete 12-of-24 passes for 129 yards, one TD and zero INTs for San Diego State. His ANY/A sits at 5.68 for the year and 5.02 over his last two outings.

NCAA Tip: Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. San Diego State Aztecs

SU Winner – Eastern Michigan, ATS Winner – Eastern Michigan, O/U – Under

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Notes

Team Betting Notes

The San Diego State defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks seven times this season. Eastern Michigan has recorded four sacks.

San Diego State has lost two fumbles this season while the Eastern Michigan offense has lost one.

The Eagles offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Aztecs have put up zero such plays.

Both teams have allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards. The Eastern Michigan defense has given up four pass plays of 30+ yards while San Diego State has permitted seven such plays.

The Eastern Michigan offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while San Diego State has created six such runs.

The Eagles defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aztecs have given up zero such runs.

As a team, Eastern Michigan has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last two contests.

San Diego State has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last two.

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Written by GMS Previews

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