The Memphis Tigers are coming into the American Athletic Championship Game as underdogs against the No. 7 UCF Knights. ABC has the TV rights and this crucial afternoon matchup is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Memphis Tigers at UCF Knights Betting Preview
Memphis is the road underdog in this AAC matchup and is currently getting 4 points. The Tigers are also receiving +155 moneyline odds while the Knights are -175. There should be some decent live betting opportunities in this game, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) pretty highly at 70.5 points.
Square bettors are siding with the Tigers, as the line opened at -5. The game’s over/under has yet to change after it was set initially at 70.5.
The Tigers are 8-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 8.2 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U mark of 6-5. The Knights have been a nice surprise for moneyline bettors this season, gaining 6.0 units. They’re 8-3 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-8.
The flawless Tigers are 8-4 straight up (SU), including 5-3 SU against AAC opponents. The Knights are 11-0 SU overall and 8-0 SU in conference play.
The Tigers are coming off a resounding 52-31 win over Houston last week. The Tigers defense allowed the Cougars to rush for 138 yards on 41 attempts. On the offensive side, Brady White completed 21-of-33 passes for 209 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Darrell Henderson (178 yards on 24 rushes, two TDs) and Patrick Taylor Jr. (128 yards on 19 carries, two TDs) led the ground attack while Tony Pollard (eight receptions, 116 yards) and Mechane Slade (three catches, 30 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
UCF just earned a 38-10 win over South Florida. As a group, the team collectively completed 10-of-24 passes for 167 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Darriel Mack Jr. went five-for-14 for 81 yards while McKenzie Milton was five-of-10 for 86 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Greg McCrae (181 rushing yards on 16 attempts, three TDs) and Adrian Killins Jr. (65 yards on 14 carries) spearheaded the running game as Gabriel Davis (five receptions, 69 yards, one TD) and Dredrick Snelson (two catches, 60 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
Each of these squads has a strikingly similar (59-41) run-pass ratio on the season. The Tigers have produced 276 rush yards/game (including 263 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 42 scores on the ground this year. The Knights are putting up 270 rushing yards per game (272 in conference) and have 35 total rush TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then the Tigers could hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has generated 6.4 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.9 YPC to opponents. The Knights have recorded 5.9 yards per carry and given up 4.5 YPC to opponents.
The Tigers offensive scheme has averaged 254 yards through the air overall (232 per game versus conference opposition) and has 26 passing scores so far. The Knights have produced 262 pass yards per game (249.4 in the AAC) and also have 26 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Memphis has let opponents rush for an average of 155 yards and pass for 243 yards per game. The UCF defense has allowed 197.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 211.6 yards per game on the ground. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.56 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers have given up a 6.15 ANY/A.
Offensively, White has amassed 2,721 passing yards this year, and has completed 64 percent of his 305 attempts with 23 passing scores and only five interceptions. White’s got an 8.77 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 4.58 over the past two outings.
For the home team, McKenzie Milton has managed to complete 158-of-264 passes for 2,395 yards, 22 TDs and six INTs. Milton’s ANY/A stands at 9.36 for the year and 9.63 across his past two outings.
RELATED: Week 14 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Prediction: Memphis Tigers at UCF Knights
SU Winner – Memphis, ATS Winner – Memphis, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Memphis defense has 34 sacks on the year while UCF has just 25.
UCF has lost three fumbles in 2018 while Memphis has lost seven.
The Tigers offense has tallied 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Knights have put up nine such plays.
The Memphis defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UCF has given up three such plays.
The Memphis offense has created 41 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UCF has created 29 such runs.
Both teams have allowed 17 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Tigers have given up 58 running plays of 10+ yards while the Knights have given up 85 such plays.
The Over/Under for UCF’s previous outing going into it was 69.5. The under cashed in the 38-10 triumph over South Florida.
Over its last three games, UCF is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
In its last three games, Memphis is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Memphis’ previous game was set at 76. The over cashed in the team’s 52-31 victory over Houston.
As a team, Memphis has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.0 over its last two.
UCF has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.6 over its past two.
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