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College Football Free Pick – Rice Owls vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Louisville Cardinals vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Louisville Cardinals vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The Rice Owls (+26) are heading northeast to face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at BB&T Field. This afternoon game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and CHSS is scheduled to broadcast the action.

Rice Owls at Wake Forest Demon Deacons Betting Preview

Rice is the noticeable underdog here and is currently getting 26 points from bookmakers. If the Deacs stumble early on it will result in a worthy live betting opportunity. Vegas hasn’t determined what the game’s over/under (O/U) will be yet.

The initial odds have recently shifted. This game’s opening line was -25.

The Owls are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.0 units so far. The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-0. The Demon Deacons are down 1.0 unit this season. The team is 0-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-1.

The Owls have gone 1-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Demon Deacons are 2-2 SU.

The Owls are looking to get back on track after a 40-22 loss to Southern Miss last week. The passing game wasn’t where it needed to be as Shawn Stankavage completed just 13-of-26 passes for 125 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Emmanuel Esukpa (only 37 rushing yards on 18 attempts) and Austin Walter (81 yards on six carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Trammell (six receptions, 60 yards) and Jordan Myers (three catches, 35 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Wake Forest just fell 56-27 to Notre Dame. The defensive unit let the Fighting Irish pass for 325 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 241 yards and six scores. Jafar Armstrong had a good showing in the win for Notre Dame, recording 98 rushing yards and two touchdowns on eight attempts. As a group, the Deacs collectively completed 16-of-31 passes for 139 yards and one interception. Sam Hartman went 12-for-24 for 110 yards while Jamie Newman was four-of-seven for 29 yards and one interception. Hartman (11 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and Cade Carney (79 yards on 13 carries) spearheaded the running game as Greg Dortch (six receptions, 56 yards) and Kendall Hinton (three catches, 23 yards) led all Wake Forest pass-catchers in the loss.

Rice has run the ball on 56.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Wake Forest has a rush percentage of 58.6 percent. The Owls have rushed for 185 yards/game and have five touchdowns on the ground this year. The Deacs are logging 263 rush yards per game and have seven total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Deacs ought to hold an edge in terms of RB efficiency, as their backfield has logged 4.8 yards per carry while the defense has allowed 4.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Owls have rushed for 4.6 yards per carry while allowing 5.6 YPC to opponents.

The Owls offense has averaged 201 yards in the air overall and has seven passing TDs so far. The Deacs have produced 243 pass yards per game and have six total pass scores.

Defensively, Rice has allowed 174 rush yards and 328 pass yards per game. The Wake Forest D has allowed 313.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 170.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Deacs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 8.75 to opponents, while the Owls have allowed a whopping 11.80 ANY/A.

Offensively, Stankavage is up to 372 passing yards this year. He’s completed 56 percent of his 72 attempts with five passing scores and three interceptions. Stankavage has a 4.35 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.83 over the last two outings.

The Owls have tried to maintain the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Austin Trammell (159 yards), Austin Walter (219 rush yards, three rush TDs, 86 receiving yards) and Emmanuel Esukpa (291 rush yards, one rush TD) have been focal points in the offensive scheme for Rice.

Sam Hartman has completed 60-of-102 passes for 730 yards, four TDs and three INTs for Wake Forest. His ANY/A sits at 6.18 for the season and 3.04 across his last two outings.

The Deacs also like to utilize their backfield. Greg Dortch (299 receiving yards, one TD) has gotten involved lately, but Cade Carney (263 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Matt Colburn II (111 rush yards, one rush TD) have gotten a lot of looks lately.

NCAA Pick: Rice Owls vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

SU Winner – Wake Forest, ATS Winner – Rice

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Notes

Betting Trends

The Wake Forest defense has sacked opposing QBs 10 times this season. Rice has recorded six sacks.

The Wake Forest offense has lost two fumbles this season while Rice has lost one.

The Demon Deacons have made four pass plays of 30+ yards while the Owls have accounted for six such plays.

The Rice defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Wake Forest has given up five such plays.

The Rice offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Wake Forest has created nine such runs.

The Owls defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Demon Deacons have given up eight such runs.

As a team, Rice has produced 3.88288288288288 yards per carry across its last three outings and 4.2 over its last two.

Wake Forest has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.6 over its past two.

*****

Written by GMS Previews

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