The Wolf Pack (+2.5) are set to welcome their conference counterpart San Diego State Aztecs (-2.5) to Nevada. This showdown will kick off fairly late for those on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and ESPNU will televise the action.
San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview
In this Saturday Mountain West game, San Diego State is labeled as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Aztecs are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Wolf Pack are +120. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 47.5 points, and should one team can create a bunch of points early, it would likely produce a nice in-game betting opportunity.
The betting odds have swayed a little from where they first opened. The opening line was 3 while the game’s total was placed initially at 48.
The surprising Aztecs have recorded 6.6 units so far and are 2-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 1-6. The Wolf Pack have lost 0.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-4-1.
The Aztecs are 6-1 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against MWC opponents. The Wolf Pack are 4-4 SU overall and 2-2 SU in conference play.
The Aztecs look to keep it going after a 16-13 victory over San Jose State last week where Ryan Agnew completed seven passes for just 86 yards. Chase Jasmin (79 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) and Chance Bell (81 yards on 15 carries) led the running attack while Fred Trevillion (two receptions, 37 yards) and Jasmin (two catches, 34 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
Nevada just got a 40-22 win over Hawaii. Ty Gangi completed 21-of-29 passes for 247 yards and one touchdown. Toa Taua (126 yards on 18 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Kaleb Fossum (six receptions, 86 yards) and Romeo Doubs (four catches, 33 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
San Diego State has run the ball on 68.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Nevada has an overall rush percentage of 46.4 percent. The Aztecs have produced 177 rush yards/game (including 148 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 10 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wolf Pack are totaling 160 rushing yards per game (153 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it’s looking like the Wolf Pack should hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has yielded only 11 sacks while the D-line has logged 23 sacks. The Aztecs O-line has allowed 19 sacks and their defense has forced only 13 sacks.
The Aztecs offense has averaged 157 yards in the air overall (137 per game versus conference opposition) and has four passing TDs so far. The Wolf Pack have recorded 272 pass yards per game (254.8 against MWC foes) and have 15 total pass scores.
Defensively, San Diego State appears to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 84 yards and pass for 223 yards per game. The Nevada defense has allowed 261.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 139.9 yards per game to opposing runners. The Aztecs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.64 to opposing QBs, while the Wolf Pack have given up a 6.99 ANY/A.
Offensively, Agnew has put up 663 passing yards this season, and has completed 56 percent of his 89 attempts with three scores through the air and three interceptions. Agnew has a 5.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.15 over the last two outings.
The Aztecs will likely try to maintain tempo by getting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Fred Trevillion (188 yards), Chase Jasmin (390 rush yards, three rush TDs, 38 receiving yards) and Chance Bell (81 rush yards) have been focal points in the offensive game scripts for San Diego State.
Ty Gangi has completed 129-of-212 passes for 1,579 yards, 12 TDs and six INTs for Nevada. His ANY/A stands at 7.01 for the year and 7.64 over his past two outings.
The Wolf Pack will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Toa Taua (33 receiving yards), McLane Mannix (15 rush yards, 507 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Elijah Cooks (40 rush yards, one rush TD, 193 receiving yards, four TDs) have gotten plenty of looks recently.
When these two teams faced each other last year, San Diego State got the victory over Nevada, 42-23.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Tip: San Diego State Aztecs vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Aztecs offense has registered one pass play of 40 yards or more, while the Wolf Pack have accounted for seven such plays.
The San Diego State defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Nevada has given up nine such plays.
The San Diego State offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Nevada has created 16 such runs.
The Aztecs defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wolf Pack have given up nine such runs.
The Nevada D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this year. San Diego State has produced just 13 sacks.
As a team, San Diego State has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.6 over its last two.
Nevada has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.0 over its last two.
In its last three contests, Nevada is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for San Diego State’s last game was set at 45.5. The under cashed in the team’s 16-13 victory over San Jose State.
Over its last three matchups, San Diego State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for Nevada’s previous outing was set at 66.5. The under cashed in the team’s 40-22 victory over Hawaii.
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