The Auburn Tigers (+25) aren’t traveling far to take on the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Kickoff for this important SEC game is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and CBS is scheduled to televise the action. These schools met last year with the final result being a 26-14 win for Auburn.
Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview
Auburn is a big road underdog here and is currently receiving 25 points from bookmakers. If the Tide get down early it will generate a nice in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 52 points.
The opening line was -24. The game’s O/U hasn’t moved after it was set initially at 52.
The hapless Tigers are 5-6 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 13.0 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-8. The Crimson Tide are up 1.0 unit this season. The team is 7-4 ATS and seven of its games have gone over the total.
The flawless Tigers have gone 7-4 straight up (SU), including 3-4 SU against SEC opponents. The Crimson Tide are 11-0 SU overall and 7-0 SU in conference play.
The Tigers want to make it two in a row 53-0 victory over Liberty last week. The defense did its part in the win, limiting the Flames to just 79 passing yards and 55 yards on the ground. Frankie Hickson had a productive day for the Flames in that one with 45 rushing yards on 10 attempts. Offensively, Jarrett Stidham completed 12-of-18 passes for just 178 yards and two touchdowns. Kam Martin (116 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and Asa Martin (44 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack while Seth Williams (five receptions, 109 yards, one TD) and Ryan Davis (four catches, 40 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Alabama just earned a 50-17 win over Citadel. The defensive unit let the Bulldogs rush for 275 yards on 60 attempts, including two rush TDs. Raleigh Webb was a bright spot in the defeat for Citadel, accounting for zero yards on zero catch. For Alabama, Tua Tagovailoa completed 18-of-22 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns. Damien Harris (83 yards on seven rush attempts) handled the running attack while Henry Ruggs III (six receptions, 114 yards) and Jerry Jeudy (six catches, 77 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Auburn has run the ball on 56.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Alabama has a rush percentage of 58.7 percent. The Tigers have produced 167 rush yards per game (including 118 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 21 scores on the ground this year. The Tide are totaling 213 rush yards per game (199 in conference) and have 27 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 results can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Tide might hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has generated 5.4 yards per carry while the defense has allowed 3.3 YPC to opponents. The Tigers have ran for 4.4 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 3.7 to opponents.
The Tigers offensive scheme has logged 215 yards/contest through the air overall (216 per game versus conference opposition) and has 14 passing scores so far. The Tide have put up 328 pass yards per outing (325.6 against SEC foes) and have 38 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Auburn has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 142 yards and throw for 208 yards per game. The Alabama D has given up 169.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 112.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Tide are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.60 to opponents, while the Tigers have allowed a 4.49 ANY/A.
Offensively, Stidham has amassed 2,131 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 61 percent of his 282 attempts with 12 scores through the air and four interceptions. He’s got a 6.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.80 over the last two outings.
Seth Williams (441 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns this season), Kam Martin (388 rush yards, one rush TD) and Ryan Davis (436 receiving yards) have all played key roles of late.
In the other huddle, Tua Tagovailoa has completed 150-of-216 passes for 2,701 yards, 30 TDs and one INT. Tagovailoa’s ANY/A sits at 14.66 for the season and 10.70 over his last two outings.
We expect the Tide to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Irv Smith Jr. (516 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs this season), Damien Harris (625 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Josh Jacobs (287 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have been significant factors in the Crimson Tide’s recent offensive gameplans.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Prediction: Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide
SU Winner – Alabama, ATS Winner – Auburn, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Alabama defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 37 times this year. Auburn has registered 34 sacks.
Alabama has lost seven fumbles this season while Auburn has lost eight.
The Tigers offense has tallied nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Crimson Tide have put up 19 such plays.
The Auburn defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Alabama has given up two such plays.
The Auburn offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Alabama has created 17 such runs.
Both teams have allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Tigers have given up 58 running plays of 10+ yards while the Crimson Tide have given up 38 such plays.
The Over/Under for Alabama’s previous outing was set at 62.5. The over cashed in the 50-17 victory over Citadel.
Over its last three matchups, Alabama is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three contests, Auburn is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Auburn has won four of its last five games SU, with a November 10th defeat to Georgia accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
The O/U for Auburn’s last game going into it was 65.5. The under cashed in the team’s 53-0 victory over Liberty.
Auburn has produced 4.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its last two.
Alabama has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.9 over its last two.
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