The TCU Horned Frogs are entering the Cheez-It Bowl as slight underdogs against the California Golden Bears. ESPN will televise the action and the opening kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET.
California Golden Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
TCU is a live dog and is currently getting 1 point in this matchup. The Golden Bears are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the Horned Frogs are -105. This tilt should provide several decent in-game betting opportunities, and oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 40.5 points.
The betting odds have moved slightly from where they first opened. The line opened at 0 while the game’s total was set initially at 41.
The Golden Bears are 6-5-1 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.9 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 2-9. The Horned Frogs have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 8.3 units. They’re 3-8-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 5-6.
The Golden Bears are 7-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Horned Frogs are 6-6 SU.
The Golden Bears are on the rebound after a 23-13 loss to Stanford on December 1. The passing attack could’ve been sharper as Chase Garbers completed only 22-of-39 passes for 197 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Patrick Laird (116 rushing yards on 19 attempts) and the signal-caller Garbers (44 yards on 12 carries) led the ground attack. Jordan Duncan (five receptions, 59 yards, one TD) and Moe Ways (five catches, 39 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
TCU just earned a 31-24 win over Oklahoma State. Grayson Muehlstein completed 16-of-25 passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns. Sewo Olonilua (70 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and the signal-caller Muehlstein (47 yards on 13 carries) led the running game as Jalen Reagor (eight receptions, 91 yards, one TD) and Derius Davis (two catches, 45 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. California has run the ball on 54.0 percent of its offensive possessions while TCU has a rush percentage of 52.8. The Golden Bears have produced 162 rush yards/game and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Horned Frogs are totaling 148 rushing yards per game and have 13 total rush TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Golden Bears ought to own an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, since their running backs has produced 4.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.5 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Horned Frogs have rushed for 4.1 yards per carry and allowed 3.6 YPC to opponents.
The Golden Bears offensive scheme has averaged 188 yards through the air overall and has 16 passing scores so far. The Horned Frogs have recorded 227 pass yards per outing and have 18 total pass TDs.
California has allowed opponents to run for an average of 132 yards and pass for 187 yards per game. The TCU defense has allowed 202.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 141.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Golden Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.94 to opposing QBs, while the Horned Frogs have given up a 5.65 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Garbers has put up 1,297 yards this season. He’s connected on 62 percent of his 215 attempts with 12 passing scores and seven interceptions. He has a 4.93 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 3.66 over the last two games.
In the hosts’ locker room, Grayson Muehlstein has completed 17-of-28 passes for 191 yards, two TDs and zero INTs. Muehlstein’s ANY/A stands at 7.83 for the season and 8.69 over his past two outings.
Free Pick: California Golden Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs
SU Winner – California, ATS Winner – California, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
Both teams have lost 11 fumbles this season.
The TCU defense has sacked opposing QBs 30 times this year. California has recorded 29 sacks.
California has averaged 3.5 yards per carry across its last three games and 3.4 over its last two.
TCU has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.6 over its past two.
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