There are now six college football teams aimlessly wandering around as independents.
Notre Dame is still stubbornly without a conference, though the Fighting Irish are practically an ACC team now. BYU is the next biggest program without a conference. The Cougars left the Mountain West Conference following the 2010 season to join the list of independents.
Army, New Mexico State, UMass, and Liberty are also independents. Liberty will play its inaugural season in the FBS this fall in Turner Gill’s seventh season as head coach. They won’t be eligible for a bowl game until the 2019 season. The Flames finished 6-5 the last three seasons, but they did upset Baylor as massive underdogs last September.
Liberty doesn’t have a win total posted this year. Nevertheless, they will have a few opportunities to take down some FBS foes this fall. The Flames play at Auburn, at Virginia, Army, New Mexico, New Mexico State and Troy.
Throughout July, we are giving out our over/under picks for every team in college football. We are also giving out best bets for each division and conference. Check out our best bets from the ACC Atlantic and ACC Coastal.
Note: all win totals are for regular season only. Conference championship games and bowl games do not count towards a team’s over/under projection.
Independents Over/Under
Notre Dame (9)
After a miserable 4-8 campaign in 2016, Brian Kelly and the Irish rebounded with a 10-win season last fall. In November, Notre Dame was even in the playoff conversation before suffering a 41-8 rout at the hands of Miami.
The turnaround season saved Kelly’s job, and it bought him some time to build another contender. Notre Dame will have a talented team again this year, including senior quarterback Brandon Wimbush.
On paper, the schedule looks tougher this year than it did a season ago. The Irish start the season at home in a showdown against Michigan. That contest will go a long way in determining the fate of both team’s seasons.
While Notre Dame is an independent, they’re essentially a halfway member of the ACC. They play five ACC opponents a year. This year, they host Pitt, Florida State and Syracuse. They travel to Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The Irish also have games against Stanford, USC, Northwestern and Vanderbilt. It’s not an easy schedule, and several of those are tossups.
The Pick: Notre Dame UNDER 9.
Army (7.5)
In only four seasons, Jeff Monken has turned the Army program around completely. After only winning six games combined in Monken’s first two seasons, the Black Knights went 8-5 in 2016 and 10-3 in 2017. They also won bowl games in both seasons.
Quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw will be at Army, but he likely won’t play. Losing him will hurt, but Army should be a very solid team yet again.
The Black Knights host Liberty, Hawaii, Miami (OH), Air Force, Lafayette and Colgate. Army will likely be favored in all six of those matchups. The road slate is a bit more challenging as they travel to Duke, Oklahoma, Buffalo, San Jose State, Eastern Michigan and a neutral site game against Navy. They did beat Duke a season ago, but it will be more demanding on the road.
Perhaps Army won’t be as explosive as last year, but this should still be a very solid team on both sides of the ball. The schedule isn’t particularly daunting, and this looks like an 8-9 win team.
The Pick: Army OVER 7.5.
New Mexico State (6)
Last year, the Aggies won a bowl game for the first time since 1960. It was a major accomplishment for head coach Doug Martin and the program, and now they’ll look to build on that success.
New Mexico State finished 7-6 last season, which is the most wins for the program since 2002. Martin has done an impressive job rebuilding, but the job will be tougher since the Aggies are competing as independents now. They were in the Sun Belt Conference from 2014-2017 before joining the independents — though they didn’t want to leave the Sun Belt.
The Aggies and Liberty are playing an in-season home-and-home, and they also host Wyoming, New Mexico, Georgia Southern and Alcorn State. There are a few difficult road games, including BYU and Minnesota. But the opportunities are there for the program to make a bowl game in back-to-back seasons. A push is probably the most likely scenario.
The Pick: New Mexico State OVER 6.
BYU (5.5)
Kalani Sitake’s second season at BYU was a disaster. After a 9-4 record in his debut season, the Cougars were an abysmal 4-9 in 2017. They had one of the worst offenses in the country, and there are more reasons for pessimism than optimism entering this season.
The schedule is very unfriendly for the Cougars. They open up the season at Arizona, and they also have road games at Wisconsin, at Washington, at Boise State and at Utah. BYU will be prohibitive underdogs in all five of those games.
There are a few games that should be wins, but there isn’t much margin for error for BYU to hit the over and make a bowl game. The Cougars should win versus McNeese State, Utah State, Hawaii, New Mexico State and UMass. Games against Cal and Northern Illinois could go either way, but it’s going to be a difficult task for BYU to reach a bowl game. If that’s the case, the Cougars could be looking for another coach for 2019.
The Pick: BYU UNDER 5.5.
UMass (5)
Mark Whipple’s second stint at UMass has been much more strenuous than his first, and the Minutemen have struggled adapting to life as an FBS program. UMass finished 4-8 last year, which was an improvement over the previous three seasons.
The team made progress last year, and they had an effective offense led by quarterback Andrew Ford. As a junior, Ford threw for 22 touchdowns and only four interceptions. The Minutemen started the season 0-6, but all six losses were narrow defeats. They nearly upset Tennessee at Neyland Stadium, but the Vols escaped with a 17-13 victory.
Aside from a late season road game at Georgia, UMass has several winnable games on the schedule. The home slate includes Duquesne, Charlotte, South Florida, Coastal Carolina, Liberty and BYU. They will probably be favored in four of those games. Road games include Georgia, Boston College, Georgia Southern, FIU, Ohio, and UConn.
This is a tough total to project because there are so many tossup games. Aside from three projected losses against South Florida, Boston College and Georgia, the other nine games are certainly winnable. Can UMass reach a bowl game? Maybe. As is the case with New Mexico State, a push feels like the most likely scenario. But we’ll take the under to be on the safe side.
The Pick: UMass UNDER 5.
Best Bet
Army OVER 7.5
