The Penn State Nittany Lions did not defend their Big Ten championship in 2017, but they still had a very impressive season and continued to show they are one of the top teams in college football, not to mention their own conference. Their attempt to exceed their 2018 regular season win total owns some advantages, but their pursuit of another big year won’t be quite that simple, as the details below will show.
Penn State 2018 regular season win total
Over 9.5
Under 9.5
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook.
What Happened Last Year
The Nittany Lions didn’t have a completely disappointing season, but not a completely successful one, either. Penn State beat Michigan and won all of its non-conference games, capped by a strong Fiesta Bowl victory over Washington. However, coach James Franklin’s team lost its two biggest games of the season – at Ohio State and at Michigan State – by narrow margins. The loss to Ohio State was especially heartbreaking, given that the Nittany Lions lost a big lead and collapsed in the fourth quarter. Penn State’s offensive line was outplayed by Ohio State’s defensive line, and the Penn State defense wasn’t able to stand tall in the latter stages of that contest. Penn State ended the regular season as one of the top teams in the country, but it once again missed the College Football Playoff. The loss to Ohio State was hard to shake, despite the other successes.
What Will Change This Year
The Nittany Lions have recruited extremely well. Franklin is one of the best recruiters in the United States, and have locked up a top-tier class once again. That hasn’t changed. However, a number of very important pieces will no longer be in place in State College, Pennsylvania. One is Saquon Barkley, the electric running back and kick returner who gave this team so many clutch performances plus the run-pass balance any good offense needs. Barkley was explosive and versatile, a dangerous combination for opponents. Someone with his depth and diversity of skill will not be easy to replace.
Another important player who will not return is tight end Mike Gesicki, who was much more of a pass-catching tight end than a blocking tight end. Gesicki was excellent at winning balls in the air at the catch point. He would box out and fend off defenders to get high-arcing passes thrown by quarterback Trace McSorley. It is true that McSorley returns for one more season, which is great for Penn State, but no Barkley and no Gesicki could limit PSU’s offense.
The greatest loss might be on the coaching staff, however. Joe Moorhead came in and rescued this offense the past two seasons. He built McSorley into an elite college quarterback and got the most out of Barkley’s skills as offensive coordinator. He took the head coaching position at Mississippi State, forcing Franklin to hire a new offensive coordinator. Penn State needs continuity on offense. A big dropoff in production this season will be catastrophic for the team’s chances.
Outlook & Prediction
The Nittany Lions get Ohio State and Michigan State at home this year. Last year, both games were road games. Michigan moves from a home game to a road game, but the Wolverines might not be ready to take advantage. When all is said and done, Penn State very probably looks like a 10-2 team – enough talent to win a lot of games, but enough important losses (especially Moorhead) to create a few losses along the way. Expect 10 wins, but not more. Take the over.
