After six weeks of failing to cash in on a college football parlay, I was able to finally cash a ticket last week. Both my picks were Group of 5 teams that won in resounding fashion against the college football betting line, so maybe that is the key for me to succeed going forward.
Everyone was high on Appalachian State after the Mountaineers earned a Top 25 ranking for the first time in school history, but I knew they would have trouble on a short week against Georgia Southern’s triple option attack. The Eagles controlled the ball with their ground game and picked off four passes in a 34-14 rout.
The second leg of the parlay was nearly as impressive. I laid the 20.5 points with Utah State against New Mexico and I was able to turn the game off at halftime after the Aggies took a 52-5 lead into the break. Let’s keep it going in Week 10. Here’s our college football parlay free pick.
Week 1: No Play
Week 2: +$267.68
Week 3: -$100
Week 4: -$100
Week 5: -$100
Week 6: -$100
Week 7: -$100
Week 8: -$100
Week 9: +$264.46
College Football Parlay Betting Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
Michigan State -2.5 at Maryland
Louisville +38.5 at Clemson
$100 to win $264.46
I tried to find some Group of Five games that I liked, but my two favorite games, I would rather save for my weekly teaser.
Usually I use analytics and statistics a lot in my handicapping, but my first play is based entirely on off the field factors. This offseason offensive lineman Jordan McNair tragically died during a summer workout. The school was found to be at fault in McNair’s death, and head coach DJ Durkin was away from the program for the first eight games of the season.
It seemed very likely that Durkin would be fired as a result of McNair’s death, but instead the Board of Regents decided to reinstall him as the school’s head coach. That led the school president to announce that he will retire at the end of the current school year, and multiple member of Maryland’s team walked out of a meeting led by Durkin after the decision was announced.
Multiple players seem to be particularly unnerved by the school’s decision, and you have to wonder how motivated they will be against Michigan State. There are more important things than football, and I wouldn’t be surprised if many players sat out this game or announced their intentions to transfer prior to Saturday.
In the second leg of my parlay, I am rolling the dice with a bad Louisville team getting a ton of points on the road against Clemson. This is just a value play considering the spot Clemson is in. The Tigers are coming off their biggest road win over Florida State in school history, and there is sure to be a letdown effect. There is likely to be a lookahead factor too as everyone is aware of the state of Louisville’s football team. Next week, the Tigers travel to Boston College where they will face their last real ACC test, and the team is likely to be preparing for that game in some fashion already.
I’m not calling for Louisville to pull off an upset or even keep it close against Clemson, but this is too many points. The Cardinals do have an offense that can score some points, and the Tigers may not want to show too much on offense or they might want to try some new things with freshman quarterback Trevor Lawrence against a woeful defense.
