The introduction of the College Football Playoff created another interesting situation with five power conferences competing for only four available spots. Even if every conference is limited to a single representative, the bottom line is that at least one of the five will not be represented every year. And that’s not even taking into account the little guys.
The Big 12 was the conference that was left out in the inaugural CFP season but with big things expected out of a TCU team that will open the year at No. 2 in the AP Top 25, there is a very good chance we see the Horned Frogs earn a playoff spot this season. So which conference will miss out on the CFP this season? It’s looking like the ACC. Here are the three main reasons why:
There Is No Elite Team In The ACC
The three-time reigning ACC champion Florida State Seminoles will begin the season with some huge holes on the offensive side of the football after losing seven offensive starters, including the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, quarterback Jameis Winston.
That is a lot to overcome for a team that has dominated the ACC over the last three seasons. While some experts expect Clemson to knock off the Seminoles at the top of the conference, the Tigers also have their share of holes on the defensive side of the football that will more than likely keep them from becoming elite. Georgia Tech is a popular pick to win the ACC Coastal division and could surprise by challenging for a conference title.
Still, a sleeper contender in the ACC won’t necessarily earn a spot in the CFP. There is a good chance that neither of the three potential championship contenders are deemed good enough to compete in the CFP this season. Unless someone is perfect through their schedule, they’re probably not going.
Will The ACC Champ Be Undefeated?
Speaking of which, with so many question marks about which team will win the ACC and the potential for so many upsets – especially early on in the year – the reality is that regardless of which team ends up winning, the odds are that the conference champion will have at least one or more losses. The combination of tough schedules and the uncertainty at the top could lead to a possible conference champion with two losses and that will almost certainly eliminate the ACC from being a potential CFP contender.
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The Number Of Elite Teams
Ohio State is the defending national champion and the first consensus preseason No. 1 in college football history, so there is every reason to expect them to win the Big Ten and at least make it back to the CFP to defend their title.
TCU was alluded to above and with Heisman trophy favorite Trevone Boykin leading arguably the most dangerous offensive attack in the nation, the Horned Frogs should be a favorite to earn a measure of redemption by making this year’s playoff. Meanwhile, Baylor could also be in the mix as a preseason No. 4.
That leaves two remaining CFP spots and we haven’t even mentioned the SEC and Pac-12 yet. Alabama is the favorite to emerge from college football’s powerhouse division but Auburn and Georgia will be in the mix as well.
Meanwhile, Oregon will have its work cut out for it – especially with USC expected to take a major step forward in the Pac-12. In the end, we can expect at least four teams to earn “elite” status and separate themselves as CFP teams.
Ohio State, TCU, Alabama and USC could be the four teams that make it but Baylor, Auburn, Oregon and Georgia will contend as well. The ACC doesn’t have a single team ranked in the top-nine heading in to this season, so they’re already fighting uphill. Without many quality opponents inside the conference, any one team will have a tough time making up that ground.
