The long awaited College Football Playoff rankings finally made its debut Tuesday, offering us the first glimpse into the minds of the new committee that will determine the top four contender by season’s end. The SEC has the strongest showing currently, as many expected.
The SEC cannibalization factor is obviously the number one variable currently in the playoff scenario, and it will result in a lot of shuffling in the coming weeks. Committee chairman Jeff Long stressed this aspect when he addressed the media this past Tuesday night. “I think that’s important for us to emphasize. We expect our rankings to change over the next six weeks,” Long said. “One week’s rankings won’t influence the next week’s rankings.”
Something has to give. Right off the bat we can see that Ole Miss and Mississippi State will square off in the first round of the playoff, due to them closing out the regular season against each other, and an SEC title game likely awaiting the winner. If Ole Miss were to lose that game, they’d have to be considered out of the picture. If Mississippi State loses that game, it could create a dilemma for the selection committee assuming that Ole Miss wins out. The Bulldogs already own a win against No. 3 Auburn, so that is a factor as well.
At this point Ole Miss appears to be the weakest of the committee’s top four after their loss to LSU last weekend. Alabama has games remaining against two of the current top four, so they possess the most potential to shake things up the most single-handedly.
Auburn has the arguably the toughest road ahead of them out of the top 10 teams, facing the dubious task of beating Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama all on the road. TCU and Kansas State are most likely out due to their weaker conference schedules and lack of a title game. Notre Dame simply needs a lot of help from other teams in the form of losses.
The Favorites:
1 – Mississippi State Bulldogs 7-0 (4-0 SEC)
Playoff rank: 1
Odds to win: 7/1
The Bulldogs strength of schedule thus far has been their biggest ally, Mississippi State has already disposed of LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn, and needed a few breaks last Saturday to pull away from a very tough Kentucky team by a score 45-31.
Quarterback and Heisman candidate Dak Prescott continues to do what he must to lead his team to wins, burning opponents through the air and on the ground. His 664 yards is enough to lead many teams in rushing. Mississippi State ranks 10th nationally in scoring, averaging 42.3 points per game.
Reasons they could fall: The Bulldogs pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. Mississippi State ranks 43rd nationally, giving up 258.3 yards a game. MSU has given up over 350 yards passing twice in SEC games this season. While they’ve still managed to outscore everyone they’ve played this season regardless of opposing yardage, a game full of crucial turnovers combined with a hot opposing quarterback could spell disaster for this team. Furthermore, while the Bulldogs schedule has been their biggest ally so far this season, it could also be their downfall late, with games against Alabama and Ole Miss both looming on the road.
http://youtu.be/4XOMj7DclYU
2 – Florida State Seminoles 7-0 (4-0 ACC)
Playoff rank: 2
Odds to win: 7/1
The Seminoles are one of two undefeated teams remaining in the playoff picture, and their No. 2 spot is a reflection of the committee’s opinion of their much weaker schedule. One can’t fault Florida State for handling their business regardless. Although the Seminoles wins aren’t as extravagant as the ones in their 2013 campaign, they’ve still gotten the job done, defeating Clemson and Notre Dame in the process.
Jameis Winston has navigated through various issues off of the field in leading his team to 37.9 points per game, good for 19th nationally. The Seminole defense has not matched lofty expectations this year, but are still managing to hold opponents to 21.6 points per game. Florida State is the most vulnerable of the top four teams performance-wise, but lack the level of competition that the other contenders have to deal with.
Reasons they could fall: The Seminoles have already had to endure numerous off the field issues with their starting quarterback this season, and now they find themselves dealing with a domestic assault investigation into their starting running back Karlos Williams. One has to wonder how many more distractions the team can handle. The Seminoles schedule may not be the toughest, but a surging Louisville team could give them trouble on the road this weekend. Florida State will most likely have to face a very good Duke team in the ACC final as well before they can fully stake their claim in the playoff.
3 – Oregon Ducks 7-1 (4-1 Pac-12)
Playoff rank: 5
Odds to win: 15/2
The Ducks have managed to keep up their usual high scoring ways, evidenced by their 45.5 per game average. Heisman frontrunner Marcus Mariota has continued to infuriate opposing defenses, piling on points and yards while not throwing a single interception all season. Oregon has responded well to a tough loss against Arizona on Oct. 2nd, defeating UCLA, Washington, and Cal in succession. The Ducks gave up 41 points against the Bears last week, but were able to come with 59 of their own, in typical fashion.
http://youtu.be/ucHEn3DxmEM
Also worth keeping in mind is the Ducks huge win against Michigan State in Week 2 of the season. Oregon has been nearly unstoppable all year, and the only real threats left in their way are a tough Utah team on the road, and the winner of the South division in the Pac-12 title game.
Reasons they could fall: Oregon has the worst defense by far out of this top four. The Ducks are surrendering an ugly 290.5 passing yards a game, good for eighth worst in the entire country. Opposing quarterbacks have had their way with the secondary. Oregon has simply had to rely on their quarterback to outscore the other, and luckily they have Mariota. If an opposing team is able to figure out a way to stop Mariota, the Ducks defense will not be up to the task of keeping their team in the game.
4 – Michigan State Spartans 7-1 (4-0 Big Ten)
Playoff rank: 8
Odds to win: 8/1
After succumbing to fellow playoff contender Oregon early in the season, the Spartans have throttled nearly every opponent in their path since, the lone exception being a 27-22 victory of No. 15 Nebraska. Michigan State owns the highest margin of victory out of these four teams, winning by a blistering average of 25.2 points per game.
Mark Dantonio’s team is also the most well rounded, running for an average of 254.9 yards per game and passing for 260.4. Junior quarterback Connor Cook has quietly led the efficient attack, throwing for 1,868 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. He has received plenty of help from a stout offensive line that has surrendered only five sacks with Cook behind center. The Spartans last major test of the season comes Nov. 8 against Ohio State at home, followed by matchups against very solid Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State teams, respectively. The Spartans will likely face Nebraska again in the Big 10 title game, although Minnesota is capable of stealing the West division crown as well.
Reasons they could fall: Its obvious right now that the committee is impressed with the SEC, favoring one-loss teams like Ole Miss and Alabama over Michigan State, with Georgia lurking not too far behind. The early season Oregon loss will hurt less the more the Ducks keep winning, but if they should fall, it could be bad for the Spartans. Michigan State is faced with a situation that calls for not only wins, but convincing ones. Should a minor slip up occur, look for them to be passed over for the likes of any other one-loss SEC team, or even Notre Dame.
